I'm sure Belichick will still look for opportunities to trade down for multiple picks if the value of the combined picks exceeds the single pick but I believe if the rookie cap comes into place he is far more likely to stay put and draft higher than he has been in the past. The reason he often moves down now is currently there is more value and less risk later.

I think it's clear BB feels a rookie cap may change this dynamic based on the fact that when he traded Seymore to Oakland he insisted on the 2011 first rounder when Oakland originally wanted to deal the 2010 pick. (At least those were the reports.) This seemed counter to trying to win during "Brady's window" so I can only assume he had a specific reason for it.

without looking at the roster too carefully, my guess is that we trade into future drafts at least once or twice. we just won't have that many positions open and the team is already really young.

i meant what he thought.

basically there is obv more talent at the top of the round, however you are forced to pay more for it so the discrepancy is made up for by the money making the draft more of a semi free agent market.

if the $$$$ gets flattened out, this changes obv. another tidbit of info is BB was an economics major in school.

Ok sorry for misrepresenting your post.

My thinking is that you are paying so much more at the front of the draft in the current system that even though you're getting a higher probability of a better player the risk/reward and value proposition is less than picking later.

Isn't that why a lot of teams try to move out of the top draft positions in recent years?

Apparently, Clay Matthews was drafted by Green Bay using a pick they got in a trade with the Patriots. Talk about impact pass rusher! Interesting newspaper articles related to this. So I guess you can get an outside LB who can rush the QB late in the 1st round. You just have to get lucky!

The Pats turned the Clay Matthews pick into Darius Butler, Brandon Tate, Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski.

is this a fact? im not saying you are wrong, just i tend to ignore what most writers gossip about and pay more attention to what actually happened. i honestly dont know if these been a lot of teams trading out of top 5-10 picks, you may very well be right.

You know you could be right. Maybe my impressions are biased because mostly I just follow the Pats, and saying "a lot of teams" is probably misleading.

I think I would probably prefer to have Matthews + 3 other guys, but w/e...Gronk looks like a stud and I'll hold out hope Butler turns into a #2 CB which is pretty valuable

Would Clay Matthews have the same success in the Patriots 34 defense. I seem to remember that was the issue the Pats had when they decided to pass on him.

How many coaches/GMs (other than BB) are honestly not going to sacrifice more future value a year or more down the road to get a pick or a trade done now?

It just seems like BB attempts to exploit other teams who are selling out for "right now" and are willing to sacrifice a good bit more in value (albeit in the future) than they are receiving in return right now.

I get the feeling that a majority of teams' coaches and GM's have to win right now to keep the fans and owner happy, not to mention keep their job, and because of that they are willing to make some decisions that are -EV long term.

torrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrooooooooooooooooooooooooooo oooooooooooooooo~!

this is especially true when it comes to -EV decisions made in game because they are 'conventional'.

hey sublime, how is life treating you.

better these days, tx

Green Bay plays the 34 defense. So the answer is yes. He would have been a better Mike Vrabel probably.

Very few teams do trade down and the reason is principally because not many teams want to trade multiple pics/pieces that the top teams will need to justify trading out of the top spots. Being a long suffering Lions fan I know that almost every year they're looking to trade down but can never get a deal done.

I think you just described every corporation in the US!!

Man I can't wait to see the door hit Brandon Meriweather in the ass at the end of this season. 4 years in the league and the guy still can't take a halfway decent angle to the play.

We dodged a major bullet. GB coach was so intent at not leaving any time on the clock for Brady, he over did it and left his own team short. With a rookie QB, get your score first and then worry about the other stuff.

Belicheck was his classic self in the post game. Paraphrasing,

BB: We just have to coach it better.
Reporter: Specifically, what aspects are you talking about.
BB: All those plays that we didn't play right.
Reporter: Yeah, but specifically what plays?
BB: All the plays we didn't execute. If the players aren't executing them right then the coaches have to coach it better.

yeah, he was pissed in the presser

the Merriweather play was so bad

underrated mistake from last night: GB kicking the FG on 4th and goal from the 1 in the 4th.

I know I'm always the consummate homer and always optimistic but I was listening to the post game last night on my way home from the game and you would have thought we lost the game. I don't see why we would all of a sudden think this team is invisible because they blew out the Jets and the Bears. Clearly if the team plays their best and avoids mistakes, they can beat anyone in the NFL, handily at times, but things have to go really right for that to happen.

For them to not play their best and still win is fantastic as far as I'm concerned. It's funny, it's pretty obvious that this defense will rank really low statistically but they do make some really good stops and seem to make a lot of plays when needed. That stop with 2nd and goal from the one inch was fantastic and the last drive I thought they played well. If there wasn't an illegal hands to the face (kinda a random penalty that didn't affect the play) the game would have ended on that pick.

I still have supreme confidence in this team.

Goodie imo it's just the same thing as when the Pats roll over the Jets and everyone wants to hand them the SB the next day. People tend to over-react one way or the other to single games and situations.

I'm ecstatic about how the Pats have played this year and now I'm optimistic they can actually make a SB run considering they should get HFA. However, I'm not going to be shocked if they get knocked out. It's encouraging that the defense can ball hawk and make good stops now and then, but overall this defense is a liability and could cost them a playoff game especially if a few things break well for the opponent.

I want to take a look later today at the number of snaps each D lineman took last night, as they were obviously gassed in the second half. I wasn't aware they had so many injuries on the line going into the game. The way the game played out with extra possesions for Green Bay, along with the Pats style on D which leads to long drives if the O is willing to dink and dunk, put the D out on the field forever. Considering those facors, being short players on the line could have made them look worse than they are.

Without that big kick return at the end of the half, or if GB could have made a pick or two when they had the chance, or if the officials got the call right when Brady fumbled on the sack (clear fumble) - the Pats could easily have lost that game.

I still think they're flawed and a year or two early (I felt the same in 2001) so anything they accomplish from here on out is gravy for me. They've blown away all my expectations this year.

I'm not upset with the lackluster effort last night. When GB announced that Rodgers was scratched, I think the team mentally checked out of the game. It's very very difficult for teams to be up every week so I can't get upset when they show they're human.

As for having supreme confidence, I won't go that far. I think they are legit contenders for the SB, but certainly not a lock or close to a lock. Defense wins in the playoffs and the SB and our team's strength is decidedly on the other side of the ball.

Oh, and the illegal hands to the face was so bs since the o lineman had his hands in Banta Cains face first.

I don't think anyone should be shocked if we lose. this team still has a huge flaw (pass defense) that 2007 didn't have, or for that matter 2004 or 2003 didn't have. of course the offense is better than any year but 2007, but this is not the most balanced team we have had

it will be shocking if we don't get the #1, and we will be something like 60-70% to win each home game depending on who we play...but thats far from a SB lock

Supreme confidence does not mean anything close to a lock for a SB. I'm just saying that last night did not affect my thoughts for this team. They had injuries on Defense, probably took the game lightly for a couple of reasons, and were playing against one of the best defenses in the NFL.

I took last night as an overall positive game even with some of the struggles. That's all I'm saying.

By the way, a couple of things - Did anyone else think it was kinda stupid for the Pack to take a timeout with 4:45 left?

What is up with Edelman? I mean, they have return punts (normally a sign of a sure handed guy) but the two plays I've seen them go to him on in the past four weeks, he's dropped very catchable balls. He's really frustrating me.

And Hernandez is a beast. That is all.