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01-08-2014 , 05:39 PM

#6126

cha59

ARTist

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,278

Quote:

Good Pelton Insider article today on the Wolves.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...s-better-think

Nothing new, but well presented. And nice to see from a non-Wolves fan.

Short version: point differential is a better predictor of future performance than current record. There may be reasons the Wolves are sub-par late in games, but no one is this bad and teams that have been this bad early in the season tend to improve.

Using the same pool of teams dating back to 1997, eight other teams have gone 1-8 or worse in games within three points in the final minute prior to New Year’s. On average, those teams won 48.2 percent of their close games the remainder of the season despite being far worse than the Timberwolves overall, winning just 23.2 percent of their non-close games.

His conclusions:

Consider the examples of the teams most similar to Minnesota over the first two months. The 2007-08 Utah Jazz, 1996-97 Portland Trail Blazers and 2001-02 Orlando Magic previously combined a record near .500 with a positive point differential. All three teams finished with at least 44 wins and made the playoffs. The Jazz improved enough in the second half that, combined with better luck, they won 54 games and beat the Houston Rockets in the opening round of the playoffs before losing to the L.A. Lakers.

So there’s some precedent to playoff simulations suggesting that the Timberwolves still are heavy favorites to reach the postseason despite the strength of the West. The Hollinger Playoff Odds show Minnesota finishing in the top eight better than 75 percent of the time, and my “true talent” simulations are even more optimistic because of skepticism that the Phoenix Suns can maintain their level of play. So when the Timberwolves host the Suns on ESPN tonight, we’re probably watching a playoff team in action. It just isn’t the one the records would indicate.

by Madison Dan on Jan 8, 2014 | 10:30 AM

The Timberwolves have won seven games by 20-plus points, most in the NBA:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/...er_by=diff_pts

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01-08-2014 , 05:54 PM

#6127

cha59

ARTist

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,278

Quote:

Jerry Zgoda @JerryZgoda
Follow

Wolves aren't saying one way or another if Chase will play tonight. Since they're not saying he's out, probably decent chance he plays
11:25 AM - 8 Jan 2014

Quote

01-08-2014 , 05:58 PM

#6128

cha59

ARTist

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,278

Traveling?

naw, when you play for the Heat, you get to change your pivot foot three times before you need to dribble.

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01-08-2014 , 06:05 PM

#6129

cha59

ARTist

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,278

Lots of good stuff on Canis today. Here's some more pythag stuff:

Quote:

Not much here terribly new to those of here on Pythagoras Hoopus

but Schuhmann did a solid job breaking down the Wolves’ “better-than-their-record” cred in his most recent NBA.com post.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/0...r-record-says/

Unsurprisingly, our -6 win difference in projected wins is the biggest in the league (2 is the second ‘biggest’ difference).

Also:

So the Wolves are a better team than their record says they are. And though they’re 0-7 when trying to get back over .500 (since falling below on Nov. 25), their point differential says they should win 32 or 33 of their final 48 games. That would give them a total of 49 or 50 wins and, likely, a playoff spot.

and…

Eighteen of their 34 games have been on the road and they’ve played seven games with *a rest disadvantage vs. four with a rest advantage.

A rest disadvantage is when a team is playing the second night of a back-to-back against an opponent that didn’t play the day before. Only one team – the Clippers (4-5 in those games) – has played more games with a rest disadvantage than the Wolves (1-6). Cleveland (3-4), New Orleans (2-5) and Orlando (2-5) have also played seven such games.

by OR-7 on Jan 8, 2014 | 12:31 PM

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01-08-2014 , 10:34 PM

#6130

ajmargarine

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33-15 to finish the season?

That just ain't happenin'

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01-08-2014 , 11:55 PM

#6131

Halstad

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Originally Posted by Halstad

I'm so frustrated with these close losses. Unless they have a huge lead it feels inevitable that we're going to lose. It seems we have too many games where we just aren't focused, I didn't think this was one of those games btw. But we still had some silly turnovers in the first half and Love and Pek missed some absolute bunnies early on.

I would consider this one of them.

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01-09-2014 , 12:32 AM

#6132

CheckRaise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ajmargarine

33-15 to finish the season?

That just ain't happenin'

yeah all of the excuse making and sort by pythag stuff is just bad, not playing any defense and having almost no shot creators in close games against good teams is not a variance issue it is a major flaw.

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01-09-2014 , 12:40 AM

#6133

Halstad

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JJ is hard to watch.

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01-09-2014 , 12:49 AM

#6134

JayTeeMe

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5 min left, up 5. Sweating bullets.

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01-09-2014 , 01:15 AM

#6135

TomHimself

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JayTeeMe

5 min left, up 5. Sweating bullets.

Why? Was there ever any doubt?

WILves

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01-09-2014 , 01:16 AM

#6136

Halstad

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bunch of choke artists, every single one of them. Nice to see Love show up tonight.

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01-09-2014 , 01:16 AM

#6137

ajmargarine

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Rubio sux at end of game stuff
Two turnovers in the final minute that were his fault

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01-09-2014 , 01:20 AM

#6138

JayTeeMe

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TomHimself

Why? Was there ever any doubt?

WILves

knew it was a loss as soon as we were not up 30

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01-09-2014 , 01:32 AM

#6139

CheckRaise

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lol at this team my god what a pathetic group

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01-09-2014 , 01:33 AM

#6140

sterfry9

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Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 5,674

not a big timberpuppy follower, but had the night off and decided to tune in...2 things commentators mentioned on espn that were cringe worthy. ricky rubio 3 years in the league and still shooting 35% and the timberpuppies 0-10 in games decided by 4 pts or less

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01-09-2014 , 02:13 AM

#6141

Golf_God_23

adept

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 737

#TradeRubioOrWeRiot

I've had it with this kid. He is the most worthless piece of garbage in the league. The most overrated PG I have ever seen. He constantly turns the ball over and he can't hit the broad side of a barn on a jump shot. Hell he can't make a f****** layup!!! I've doubted him since they chose him in the draft and he continues to prove me right. They picked him because he could make a few fancy passes?!?!?! My lord, are you kidding me!?!?!?

If the T'Wolves had any sort of legitimate PG they would be contenders, but with Rubio there is no hope!!! Love is going to end up just like Garnett here in MN (An all-star with absolutely no talent around him... well besides Pek, I love me some Pek). He's a legitimate MVP candidate on a 17-18 squad.

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01-09-2014 , 03:31 AM

#6142

JayTeeMe

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Trade Rubio and let the JJ Barea era begin?

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01-09-2014 , 04:08 AM

#6143

Halstad

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JJ is horrible.

I wish Love would clone himself so he would have to guard himself and they'd both go off for 50+ as neither would contest a shot or leave the lane as their clone hit 10+ 3s.

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01-09-2014 , 04:15 AM

#6144

BobboFitos

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asked this about a month ago, i figure now is a fine time to check in: what sort of extension does rubio get? what sort of extension do you guys think is a +ev team contract?

Spoiler:

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01-09-2014 , 04:35 AM

#6145

JayTeeMe

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I really can't picture a team being in a hurry to give Rubio big money. He's a marginal starting PG right now. If somebody pays him backup PG money, we match ldo. If somebody pays him big bucks to steal him away, we let him go, he shoots 30% and that GM gets fired. Fans tend to suck at recognizing little gritty things.

Ricky's best feature might be that he's really fun to watch on otherwise terrible teams. Might be quite valuable when Love leaves.

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01-09-2014 , 11:31 AM

#6146

JayTeeMe

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Just watched DVR. Rubio had like 1 bad turnover in an otherwise pretty good game.

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01-09-2014 , 12:05 PM

#6147

cha59

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Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 25,278

I had great seats to the game last night. Section 131 (center court), row H. Perfect spot to see everything.

The big problem with Rubio offensively is that other teams are figuring out how to defend him by cutting off passing lanes and letting him have wide open long 2s. Phoenix did a very good job of this last night. If we had 4 other good offensive players on the floor with him, it would be less of a problem, but we do not have enough guys who shoot the ball well, so Rubio's shooting woes are compounded.

Dragic is really good.

I didn't know Frye was such a good shooter. The Wolves seemed unprepared for that, as they continually left him wide open.

Plumlee looks like a pretty good C.

Phoenix has a nice team. Lots of athletic, young players, many who can shoot, and they play tough defensively. They look well coached. I can see how they're winning a lot of games.

Phoenix got away with playing like it was a football game in the first half. Every foul that actually got called, they bitched about. Their physical play, along with a lot of no-calls from the refs, rattled the Wolves badly. The fact the the refs also called at least a couple fouls on the Wolves when there was no contact at all was maddening. That hurt, but in the end, the Wolves had to **** up a lot of things to lose that game, and they ****ed up all of them. This was another very bad loss to a team we hope to be competing with for the playoffs, and another team we should have beaten. The last three losses have all been brutal.