Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
Random thought that I'm too lazy to care about because it ain't my money:
You should probably check to see if there are a few certain pitchers you "always" find yourself betting for or against; if so your model is probably mis-evaluating that guy (or the rest of the world is consistently doing so, but I know where to bet)
Unless it's Pelfrey, you can bet against him every time and it won't be wrong
There are definitely times I handicap pitchers wrongly, and usually the market harshly let's me know, and then I try to figure out what the market is trying to say about a pitcher's projected ERA and adjust my projections accordingly to protect myself from constantly making the same mistake. It certainly annoys me when I handicap the same pitcher wrong twice in a row.
That said, obviously, there is a human touch to all this, and I do have my biases as to which pitchers I love to fade (Pelfrey & Weaver, are the two obvious ones). If my model even remotely suggests to fade them, I'm on it.
Incidentally, this past weekend my model nailed the Pelfrey/Gallardo matchup, telling me that the market is fair priced and there's no money to be made fading Pelfrey on this one. It made intuitive sense too. Gallardo sux and no Cano in the lineup. That said, it was hard NOT to pull the trigger and fade Pelfrey just cuz. Luckily my only sin was putting Mariners in a parlay and of course White Sox pounded.