aren't you just hedging? how are you increasing your equity?

By strong-arming his competition into each making a 75% popularity pick, which as you know is a pretty horrible choice regardless of how likely the team is to win.

So all 8 survived and there was brief talks of the chop again but nothing was finalized. Guess there's one guy preventing the chop.

Think we are planning on going Den > Ne > NFC SB team.

At this point I'm just hoping people don't realize the long term strategy you need to employ in this. Like basically any team you pick can't make the SB or you're gonna lose one way or another. Really hoping people jump on Seattle this week and don't realize the risk the take of locking themselves out.

Last paragraph is why you're long term best not to make a deal. Some clown is going to botch it up. It's not the worst if you're the only one one on Seattle and still have Dallas, but if another person does it too, you're in a disastrous spot with terrible EV.

When are your picks due? Mine are due before the Sunday game starts. Obviously not deciding until after I see what happens on Saturday first.

If the favorites hold, I have a big decision to make. Yours is important too, but with less players remaining in my pool there's a tangible chance that I'm in a 3 vs 1 position and in a great position to hedge. My bookie will let me ML Green Bay conditional that Denver wins later that day, so it doesn't matter which way I go for hedging purposes.

What direction is Joe Homegame going to lean? No one should take New England or Seattle in either of our pools. Nice bonus if they do. Broncos play 2nd and are slightly bigger favorites. That route ensures a better Super Bowl matchup too assuming Seattle makes the SB. However, taking Green Bay, I assume gives you the better chance to make the SB if Seattle wins Saturday. As long as you make it to the SB, you can hedge without relying on other agreeing to make a deal.

I made a deal that had my opponents all taking Dallas in the 1st round. Only 1 of them can use them again. I can use them 1x. If you get boxed out, you're auto-eliminated.

Given that 2 of them can't take Dallas again. They both should take Green Bay, because if Dallas were to win they'd be boxed out if they went Denver & New England and Dallas made it to the Super Bowl. Or am I over-thinking it? Some help please with the strat assuming one of the 2 that can't use Dallas again is thinking

Well here ya go:

Seattle
Dallas

Dallas

NE
Den

Den

Dallas

Not helpful as usual.

If you were in my spot, you'd pick Denver just because you think Dallas is going to win and not even consider the likelihood that picking Denver could leave 1 person on Green Bay & 3 on Denver? Read my post and answer if you'd like, but at this stage I'm not interested in your handicapping skills.

I put myself in a situation that netted 4,000 on a hedge. I would've won ~3,000 $$$ & EV from another pool if Dallas had lost. That's how you play Survivol Pools.

This handicapping nonsense is getting old. At this stage, it has nothing to do with how to pick teams at all. It actually doesn't matter at all. ML & point spreads are enough to start with

I don't know what spot you are in, what you have left etc etc. Playoff seems tough. All I know is out of the 4 top seeds I think GB has the greatest chance to lose, but also has the greatest chance to win the SB. Weird spot IMO. I'm sure you will figure it out. GL.

Lol at packers having more SB equity then the seahawks

Yes whoever wins the GB/Dal game is winning the SB

If you're serious what odds do you want? Not looking for a big bet but something fun.

Il happily take the winner of Seattle vs Carolina next week against either GB or dallas and I will spor you a few points if required, let me know Cheers.

I will wager a somewhat large amount of money on the GB/Dal winner NOT winning the SB.

Well I already have Dallas at 13-1 and 20-1

Got BAL at 44-1, DAL at 13-1, NE at 4-1, and SEA at 2.95-1...obv rooting hard for BAL, I see getting through NE as harder then DEN/IND

9-1 up to 200.

LOL 9-1

9/1 on Dallas winning Super Bowl 200 to win 1,800? I'll book this

It's Green Bay and Dallas.

No I get GB and Dallas. Not sure how to calculate what those odds are. Figure split the difference. Vig calculator won't let me put in 2 underdogs

Well considering that Green Bay on their own have a better than 11% chance to win the Super Bowl I'll have to pass

9:1 for a team in the CCG. That's ****ing hilarious.

If you get anybody to take that let me know. I want in.

Won't take 9:1, because I am not a ******.

However, I will take Seattle vs GB and Dallas if you like, must win SB to win bet.

LOL at 9 to 1 for both GB and DAL when GB themselves are +550.

Cowboys are +1325

I don't know how to do it, but something like 3.5 to 1 for both is probably about accurate.

but why would I take 3.5-1 when I think dallas is going to win the SB