I could say how lucky NE was to pull one out again, or MIA but I'll just shut up and take my win...Lions went back to the old Lions 2 red zone picks, ridic fouls just trying to give that game away but I got through somehow after switching off PHI last min; I'll take it.
Yeah I feel like there have been 1-3 games a week where a heavily picked team is in big trouble and manage to pull it out. Then again I've been on one of those teams like 3 times now so *shrug*
Well next week will be fun. Sorry again for recommending the Bengals. I know it was close.
My choices next week:
Winner of Ten vs Jax - not thrilled about this option Redskins - nope Atlanta at NO - probably the team I have to take. Carolina home vs Cleveland - also a slim possibility
Winner of Det at Chicago TB home vs GB nope Pitt home vs KC nope
Winner of Minn at Miami - taking Miami seems likely Jets home vs NE - nope
Winner of NYG at STL - ugh Raiders home vs Buffalo - believe it or not the Raiders probably easily win this game, just not sure I want my life to hang on that organization Dallas home vs Indy - nope Ari home vs Seattle - nope
So basically in order of where I am leaning:
Miami
ATL
Oak
winner of Titans/Jax
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
So basically there are 3 underdogs on this list
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
you can do whatever you want, but no one should trust eddyb's capping more than the vegas lines.
and rather than picking an underdog in a survivor pool, why don't you just bet heavily on them against the book?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
Yeah he should take Atlanta. They're ahead of Oakland in your Survivor Pool Power Rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Why would anyone take Oakland when Bills are a 5.5 point favourite???
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashley12
The markets would have adjusted for New Orleans being a ~16th type team as opposed to an ~8th ranked team they would have been for the early parts of that run, and still have them as a decent favourite. As well as that, they have had some nice wins on the road this year, and generally speaking previous biased success/failure on the road or at home is not a predictor for further biased home/road success.
If you are going to be basing decisions on previous small samples, why did you pick Cincinnati after they had lost 24-3 at home only three weeks ago to their upcoming opponent, which not only did they have a poor. Not only that, but that pick went against your previous advice of NEVER BETTING A DIVISONAL GAME!!1!1!11ONE!11!! or a ROAD TEAM!!1!!1!1!!1!!!!111!!ELEVEN!1!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
I'll help you out in 2 ways...
#1
Import everyone's picks into an Excel spreadsheet.
It's very easy at this point to deduct what most people will pick or at the minimum the 2 or 3 teams they're choosing from.
For Week 15, it's very simple. If someone has Baltimore or Kansas City, that's who they're picking. They'll pick Baltimore or Kansas City. Then New England if they have them left. Seattle is worth saving if you have one of the above teams still available. Otherwise, they'll take them
After that Detroit is the pick.
Then NYG, then Carolina.
Use what others are going to pick to help you make your selection, but with what you have left there's no reason to pick anything worse than Carolina. Separation is important but not if you're sacrificing a big chunk Win %
#2
Don't listen to Eddy's advice. He's either trying to get people to use poor Survivor Pool strategy (which is not a bad idea at all) or he's a moron. It's likely the latter.
He'll tell you that he's won 3 of these things, but that doesn't mean much. It's like saying Mike McCarthy is a great coach because he coached Green Bay to a 15-1 record a few years ago
This last one was my favorite post.
I have
BraveJayHawk
housenuts
ashley13
as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.
And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
I'm rooting against buffalo. Im willing to sacrafice one of my picks. If buffalo & stl lose my pool will be down to 8 ($4k each if a deal is made)
I think you want Buffalo to win. Your equity will be more (around 5.5k) with 2 entries as opposed to 1. At this point I don't think you are shipping it, so might as well go for as much as you can.
13 were left in my pool and almost everybody shat a brick or was eliminated
4 Buffalo (gg)
3 Miami
2 New England
2 Detroit
1 Philadelphia (gg)
1 Pittsburgh
Pit with probably the only win that was easy to watch. 13 down to 8. Plan is to take Seattle at home vs St. Louis next week assuming Seattle has something to play for.
Since under 10 people it's only make 1 pick last week. I still have Dallas. I'll have to see what the playoff scenario looks like. Not sure if they'll need to win. not sure about a deal yet
The guy that runs the pool says that there probably won't be a deal because most people have Houston left. Hopefully they all take houston and I'll have a chance to scoop the pool. My choices are slim and looks like I'd have to go with Minnesota. Don't think Dallas has anything to play for.
as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.
And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
Ohhhh man
I was really keen for this but only ashley13 is allowed to compete.
Thats a shame
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
Dallas needs to win for home field and a first round bye.
Dallas need to win and have
- Seattle lose to Rams (going to guess a line of 11 or so)
- Arizona to lose to SF
OR
A tie in the Detroit vs Green Bay game.
While they have something to "play for" its a bit of a stretch to think they will be live in any way shape or form.
In my pool is $32k to winner. I think most people have HOU left, but I dont.
It would be favorable for the Houston people to take a deal and 4k now. Otherwise say all 7 take Houston and I take Minny they are risking 4k to only win $600 more.
as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.
And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
