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NFL Suicide Pool Discussion Thread NFL Suicide Pool Discussion Thread

12-21-2014 , 05:21 PM
Cmon minny! Such a huge game if I can get 3 from MIA out
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12-21-2014 , 05:32 PM
I could say how lucky NE was to pull one out again, or MIA but I'll just shut up and take my win...Lions went back to the old Lions 2 red zone picks, ridic fouls just trying to give that game away but I got through somehow after switching off PHI last min; I'll take it.
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12-21-2014 , 05:36 PM
Yeah I feel like there have been 1-3 games a week where a heavily picked team is in big trouble and manage to pull it out. Then again I've been on one of those teams like 3 times now so *shrug*
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12-21-2014 , 06:35 PM
Nobody took Buffalo in my pool sigh, so I am going to root for Buffalo for those of you who did take them.
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12-21-2014 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
Well next week will be fun. Sorry again for recommending the Bengals. I know it was close.

My choices next week:

Winner of Ten vs Jax - not thrilled about this option
Redskins - nope
Atlanta at NO - probably the team I have to take.
Carolina home vs Cleveland - also a slim possibility
Winner of Det at Chicago
TB home vs GB nope
Pitt home vs KC nope
Winner of Minn at Miami - taking Miami seems likely
Jets home vs NE - nope
Winner of NYG at STL - ugh
Raiders home vs Buffalo - believe it or not the Raiders probably easily win this game, just not sure I want my life to hang on that organization
Dallas home vs Indy - nope
Ari home vs Seattle - nope

So basically in order of where I am leaning:

Miami
ATL
Oak
winner of Titans/Jax
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
So basically there are 3 underdogs on this list
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
you can do whatever you want, but no one should trust eddyb's capping more than the vegas lines.

and rather than picking an underdog in a survivor pool, why don't you just bet heavily on them against the book?
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
Yeah he should take Atlanta. They're ahead of Oakland in your Survivor Pool Power Rankings
Quote:
Originally Posted by housenuts
Why would anyone take Oakland when Bills are a 5.5 point favourite???
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashley12
The markets would have adjusted for New Orleans being a ~16th type team as opposed to an ~8th ranked team they would have been for the early parts of that run, and still have them as a decent favourite. As well as that, they have had some nice wins on the road this year, and generally speaking previous biased success/failure on the road or at home is not a predictor for further biased home/road success.

If you are going to be basing decisions on previous small samples, why did you pick Cincinnati after they had lost 24-3 at home only three weeks ago to their upcoming opponent, which not only did they have a poor. Not only that, but that pick went against your previous advice of NEVER BETTING A DIVISONAL GAME!!1!1!11ONE!11!! or a ROAD TEAM!!1!!1!1!!1!!!!111!!ELEVEN!1!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by BraveJayhawk
I'll help you out in 2 ways...


#1

Import everyone's picks into an Excel spreadsheet.

It's very easy at this point to deduct what most people will pick or at the minimum the 2 or 3 teams they're choosing from.

For Week 15, it's very simple. If someone has Baltimore or Kansas City, that's who they're picking. They'll pick Baltimore or Kansas City. Then New England if they have them left. Seattle is worth saving if you have one of the above teams still available. Otherwise, they'll take them

After that Detroit is the pick.

Then NYG, then Carolina.

Use what others are going to pick to help you make your selection, but with what you have left there's no reason to pick anything worse than Carolina. Separation is important but not if you're sacrificing a big chunk Win %

#2

Don't listen to Eddy's advice. He's either trying to get people to use poor Survivor Pool strategy (which is not a bad idea at all) or he's a moron. It's likely the latter.


He'll tell you that he's won 3 of these things, but that doesn't mean much. It's like saying Mike McCarthy is a great coach because he coached Green Bay to a 15-1 record a few years ago

This last one was my favorite post.

I have

BraveJayHawk
housenuts
ashley13

as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.

And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
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12-21-2014 , 07:06 PM
I'm rooting against buffalo. Im willing to sacrafice one of my picks. If buffalo & stl lose my pool will be down to 8 ($4k each if a deal is made)
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12-21-2014 , 07:06 PM
What happened to the Pittsburgh thing?
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12-21-2014 , 07:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wesrwood
What happened to the Pittsburgh thing?
Oh I posted earlier that he said I'm all set. Thank God!
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12-21-2014 , 07:22 PM
Didn't see it sorry
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12-21-2014 , 07:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam341
I'm rooting against buffalo. Im willing to sacrafice one of my picks. If buffalo & stl lose my pool will be down to 8 ($4k each if a deal is made)
I think you want Buffalo to win. Your equity will be more (around 5.5k) with 2 entries as opposed to 1. At this point I don't think you are shipping it, so might as well go for as much as you can.
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12-21-2014 , 07:36 PM
Sam I would highly advise you stop assuming deals will be made. All it takes is one guy to ruin it.
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12-21-2014 , 07:37 PM
I think he is assuming nobody will get knocked out
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12-21-2014 , 07:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SirRawrsALot
Sam I would highly advise you stop assuming deals will be made. All it takes is one guy to ruin it.
going to be crazy if buff wins and I have 2 out of the final 13 but have to make 2 picks on each!
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12-21-2014 , 08:00 PM
Next week is ridiculous. Just took a look at the games. I have Dallas available on both. Hopefully they will need to win for a top seed
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12-21-2014 , 08:39 PM
13 were left in my pool and almost everybody shat a brick or was eliminated

4 Buffalo (gg)
3 Miami
2 New England
2 Detroit
1 Philadelphia (gg)
1 Pittsburgh

Pit with probably the only win that was easy to watch. 13 down to 8. Plan is to take Seattle at home vs St. Louis next week assuming Seattle has something to play for.
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12-21-2014 , 08:47 PM
GG
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12-21-2014 , 08:56 PM
I apologize for stating the Raiders and Falcons would win today.
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12-21-2014 , 09:20 PM
So if Seattle loses 7 left if not 8 left.

Since under 10 people it's only make 1 pick last week. I still have Dallas. I'll have to see what the playoff scenario looks like. Not sure if they'll need to win. not sure about a deal yet
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12-22-2014 , 03:22 PM
The guy that runs the pool says that there probably won't be a deal because most people have Houston left. Hopefully they all take houston and I'll have a chance to scoop the pool. My choices are slim and looks like I'd have to go with Minnesota. Don't think Dallas has anything to play for.
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12-22-2014 , 03:32 PM
Dallas needs to win for home field and a first round bye.
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12-22-2014 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
Dallas needs to win for home field and a first round bye.
Are u sure? One site I went to had them in bold for the 3 seed. Also that's one of the games that has no line. Do you see a spread for that game?

Last edited by Sam341; 12-22-2014 at 04:30 PM.
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12-23-2014 , 08:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
This last one was my favorite post.

I have

BraveJayHawk
housenuts
ashley13

as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.

And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
Ohhhh man

I was really keen for this but only ashley13 is allowed to compete.

Thats a shame

Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
Dallas needs to win for home field and a first round bye.
Dallas need to win and have

- Seattle lose to Rams (going to guess a line of 11 or so)
- Arizona to lose to SF

OR

A tie in the Detroit vs Green Bay game.

While they have something to "play for" its a bit of a stretch to think they will be live in any way shape or form.
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12-23-2014 , 01:22 PM
Ok now I could use a little help.

I was the only one with New England left and now they have nothing to play for. Here are my choices I need to pick 2.

Houston
Miami
Minn
NE
Philly
NO
Indy
Dallas
Atl


We all have Houston left
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12-23-2014 , 02:43 PM
In my pool is $32k to winner. I think most people have HOU left, but I dont.

It would be favorable for the Houston people to take a deal and 4k now. Otherwise say all 7 take Houston and I take Minny they are risking 4k to only win $600 more.
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12-23-2014 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by EddyB66
This last one was my favorite post.

I have

BraveJayHawk
housenuts
ashley13

as the 3 people I would like to see in a survivor. We can do a $2,500 survivor league. Single picks until week 10, and then double picks the rest of the way. Winner take all.

And to make it fair, I will even let you guys know who I am taking beforehand.
I'm in. And agree to the terms as stated above
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