There's no real chance that his chances are greater than Carlsen's since Kramnik's MAX winning chance of the tournament are substantially less than his winning chances in today's game due to the tie breaks.

Eg - imagine Kramnik wins 70% of the time today, draws 30% and never loses. That's not even remotely realistic, but just for the sake of argument. Now imagine Carlsen wins 40%, draws 50% and loses 10% which is also rather outside the realm of reality - in favor of Kramnik.

Kramnik wins if he wins and Carlsen does anything but win (which is 60%) or if he draws and Carlsen loses (which is 10%).

Kramniks EV is then: 0.7 * (0.6) + 0.3 * 0.1 = 0.45 = 45%

And that's if he is some superhuman terminator and Carlsen is having a pretty bad day.

Ivanchuk flag fall incoming. Lulz ensue.

Do it Right,

I based my comment on the assumption that Ivanchuk is flagging a lot more often than 70% of the time. Still feeling pretty good about it. Seriously, look at his clock (39 minutes with 21 moves to the time control).

Edit: I would definitely love to be super wrong.

Kramnik's position is not only tough to play, but it seems incredibly difficult to create any winning chances.

ivanchucktheclockoutthewindow

wtf do people like IM Lawrence Trent do during the year to make money? Commentating seems like a sweet gig but...

Ivanchuk is getting into some time trouble . . . but Carlsen's time is even worse!

To my surprise Kramnik has managed to generate some complications - still, I think Ivanchuk has things under control, but his time pressure could let him down again.

My response and example were needlessly complicated. There's a easier way to work it out. Kramnik's tournament win % is strictly less than Carlsen's round win %. If Carlsen wins against Svidler 50%, Kramnik's tournament win % will naturally be <= 50%. In other words if Carlsen wins 50% and Kramnik wins 100% Kramnik still would only be a 50%. Factor in even a pinch of reality and it's easy to see that Carlsen is a pretty huge favorite.

Do it Right,

I definitely understand all that. I didn't think Carlsen was > 50% to win his game when we talked about it an hour ago; did you?

Carlsen's game is heating up too and Carlsen is in pretty severe time trouble. This game could go either way as well. Exciting finish in store.

Looks to me like this is the kind of position Carlsen wins every time, I don't have the computer evaluations though

Magnus has 80 seconds for 11 moves. Ivanchuck has 2½ minutes for 7 moves.

lol clockaments

Pretty sure you're missing the < 2mins on the clock issue.

Man Carlsen in a serious time crunch right now. 10 more moves and under 2 mins

Starting to seem like Carlsen's chance to win the tournament is for Ivanchuck to not flag, and both Carlsen and Kramnik lose.

Yeah the clock is shorter than I thought, exciting time coming up here

Hahaha oh no. I think chessbomb is dead?

Seriously 10 sec for 6 moves in this position?

only just popped in, how the hell did carlsen **** the clock up so badly? summoning his inner chucky?

Down for me. Server overload?

Official site also died on me

Holy ****

Anyway, they have passed time control but I have no idea what the position is bc ICC has crashed. A lot of pieces came off.

This is hilarious. Both of them losing.

Is it possible that the clock times we've been seeing are inaccurate, if the server started having issues several minutes ago and we're just not seeing the last few moves?