I know most of the player activity is analyzed by a software program but I wonder if they have any statisticians, analysts, or mathematicians analyze some of their data especially outliers like Leon.

I could picture someone in management saying "How does a guy win $40,000 from a $50 bet... twice!?!" and the mathematician says "well, the odds of a single dealt royal or dealt 4AWAK is 1 in 162,000*, so not far from impossible to get it twice."

*Can someone double check this number, I calculated it really quick.

The math checks out for me

They very much do this. When someone wins at rates that exceed some threshold of expected variance for significant amounts of money, they will scrutinize that player quite closely. In some cases, they will pull the machines from the floor to check for evidence of tampering after the player gets up.

If they can't prove any wrong-doing, they sometimes just stop offering comps to the player if the winning is unusual enough that they suspect something must be wrong. I know people that have been encouraged to play elsewhere in this manner.

There have even been cases where someone has been banned when they win at unexpectedly high rates even if the casino can't find any evidence of them doing anything wrong. I remember it famously happened to Richard "Quiet Lion" Brody back in the day from all Harrah's rooms for a while.

I'm too lazy to do the math on Leon's reported win rates or your dealt royal calculation, but someone winning at the rates reported here would probably have been scrutinized quite closely indeed. Presumably they didn't find any evidence of anything shady and they are comfortable that he is just a very lucky guy. They are quite confident that if anyone plays enough, their results will even out and the casino will win at the expected rate over time. They have a mountain of cash and proven results that support this belief.

Just read thru recent updates. Damn now I want Szechuan short ribs and a three finger pour of Pappy 15.

Nice updates.

The reality is I KNOW the results are purely due to dumb luck. Every time I play through a long cold patch on "my" machine, I remind myself that this is the norm, this isn't "my" machine, and that I'm not over or underdue for anything.

That being said, if it ain't broke, don't fix it, and I certainly don't have a reason to switch as things stand.

Next update coming soon.

They do it on tables as well. Last year I had a Leon-esque run at a table game at a certain casino over several months, and they were watching me so close that they called downstairs when the dealer messed up a (relatively small) payout on a hand (in my favor, OFC). They also harassed me in a couple of other ways.

IMO they're just shooting themselves in the foot when they do **** like this; they should be smart enough to know about outliers, short-term variance, etc. But, here we are.

Day 4, final day

Slept in a touch this AM, but not as long as I would have liked. We've got a late check out and we're not leaving for the airport until after 3pm. With COVID our flight options have become more limited- personally I would have liked to leave a bit earlier, not put as much money at risk and get home to the kids sooner, but we've got to work with what we've got.

On top of that, bc this is just a regular Monday for wife, she's got to work pretty much up until lunch. I've got a fair amount of play left today, and of course the possibility to give a lot back.

So, with that thought I head downstairs.



Takes me a little while to break the seal.



EXCELLENT. I was playing slowly, but I can crank it up now!





Bang!

What started as a worrisome AM session has quickly become legit good. I head upstairs for room service breakfast up 8k? for the session. I'm up 40k for the trip!



Standard room service.

A bit about the room service bill here- I actually looked for once, because I knew we were coming close to using up all our comp. My wife got a large pot of coffee (on my request). She prefers the Wynn water as opposed to Fiji and asked for just regular Wynn bottled water. Well, they "misunderstood" her order and gave her a LARGE bottle of fiji. Yeah, totally not what we wanted. Anyways, the point is, bill for- scrambled eggs, bacon, large coffee, large water?

112$. WTF.

So I look at the itemized. At this point, it is what it is and I'm hopeful I'm still under the comp limit (we were, luckily), but I'm still annoyed on general principle. Check this out-

eggs AND bacon- 19$. OK, standard Wynn markup.
Coffee- 12$?! That's some expensive coffee.
Service charge- 10$, ON TOP OF delivery fee (18%), which is different than included gratuity (18%)

And the kicker... that bottle of water? TWENTY FOUR DOLLARS. WTF????!!

Not much else to say- those prices are absolutely ridiculous and if I had to pay out of pocket I'd be BEYOND incensed. I can understand the food and coffee. 24$ for that water? NO F'ING WAY.

So I eat my totally standard, definitely not 112$ breakfast and head back downstairs. Back to the usual, which starts cold and I dust off at least 4k before hitting



Put more back in, switch to an old school machine to change it up. Still haven't ever been dealt 4 AWAK at the Wynn. Maybe an old school machine can do it. Give more back, and then



Give more back, head back to the usual.



At this point, I'm dead even for the post breakfast session. Still up 8k for the day. Wife should be done with work soon, after which we're going to play craps. I can survive another UX session, right?

I head over to UX and tell myself "don't give back more than 2k". The machine obligingly starts off warm, and I'm legit up about 1k for that session simply off of dealt straights, regular quads x 2, etc. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to hit a monster, but winning near 40k is a good trip any day of the week. Of course I will slow down good draws, but they're just not coming. So, I'm barely paying attention when-



O.M.F.G.

I heard the sound come in first. By the time I recognized visually what had happened, and the fact it was on 10x... the machine is flashing the amount at me.

I can't believe it! Second 40k hit of the trip!!!!!

Let's get a close up view, shall we?



They have to bring the engineer out to check. I ask for my winnings in check again. Whole process takes maybe 10 min, then it's back to battle. I CANNOT believe how fricking hot I am at this casino over more than a year. So unbelievable.

I decide I can now afford a shot at 10 lines UX. It's impossible for me not to let my good fortune get to my head a LITTLE BIT. Of course I was thinking "if I ever get dealt 4AWAK, it's going to be on a trip like this" and I want it to count.

Well, I donk off 5k in probably 10 min. Cold UX is cold. After, I wisen up and refuse to give any more money back to this machine. I head upstairs to pester wife for craps and lock up my check! I'm now up almost 80k for the trip.

Neither of us is hungry, so we hit craps. I decide I'm going 50% bigger- buy in for 6k, bet 6 and 8 450$ each to start. We haven't had an amazing table yet this trip- now is the time!

And of course... we walk right into an ice cold table. I've blasted off 3k in no time flat. Scale back to my usual 300$ 6 and 8 and it gets slightly better, but never good. I'm getting irritated at the game which is never a good sign. We decide to break for lunch.



In for 6k, out for 3.5k and change. Could have been much worse.

We eat at Red 8 and get the usual (sorry, no pics). Afterwards, we have time for one final craps session before we need to pack up, redeem tickets, etc.

I learned my lesson. No more big craps. Too irritating if I lose, which I probably will. So I'm in for my usual 4k. Watch this table be super hot.



I dust off another 3k before I've had enough. I'm gambled out, and at this point going home with more money matters to me more than trying for another win.



Final tally- +70k ish.

Such an amazing trip, again. I'm 8 for 8, my streak is still alive and now spans over a calendar year. Two monsters, second dealt royal in as many months... just so many awesome moments this trip.

Once I get home and deposit those checks, I do a rough bankroll tally- I'm sitting right around 230k. Most of it locked up in the bank, of course. That makes sense- I came home in Dec right around 195k, got ass-raped by my local in Dec for 35k, now at 230k...

As always, thanks for reading. I've already got my next trip lined up, report to come as always...

Final day result- +38k
Overall- + 70k

No doubt. If I was on a sun run like you, I might well just move in and print money until it went sideways.

For sure they do. They probably watch blackjack closer than anything else in the casino. I've been at a hot craps table where they will come in and switch out all the dice and switch the crews around. I agree that they can be stupid about this sometimes and end up making good customers angry.

I don't play many pit games, mostly Pai Gow Poker just to score free drinks and lose very slowly. Every once in a while, the floor will get a bug up their butt and give everyone grief for showing each other their hands, even though any change to EV is absolutely minuscule.

Please regale us with the details of this run!

Leon, I have to agree. Prices in Vegas are absolutely amazing. You probably dont remember, but I quoted you in my TR 3 years ago when I hit 4AWAK aces with kicker for $4000 the very first morning. We went to celebrate to Mon ami Gabi and the bill was $120 plus tip. And the funny thing is, we had 1 coffee each and a standard eggs. I was absolutely shocked.

And regarding the water, I remember my last trip in January (a year ago) I was pretty high and woke up in the middle of the night thirsty as hell and didnt have any water from poker rooms left (I always order 2x Fiji at Bellagio and Aria, drink one and put one in backpack for later when I leave) and I used the minibar. It was $25 as well for a large Fiji. Robbery, literally.

Wow!
Nice trip. Thanks for the TR!

After this latest score, your coffee and water prices will go up.

You'll be grateful for $24 water! LOL

$24 for a bottle of water? GTFO.

I started going to Vegas in 2003. Seems like it used to be that Vegas had more places for all economic levels.

I miss the little hole-in-the-wall places where you could get a quick bite/drink for not-ridiculous prices. There's still a few, like in the Hawaiian Marketplace area.

Ahh, the memories. Wife and I were literally talking about it at the tail end of this trip, how different our lives are, etc. I don't know for sure, but it's conceivable I've been to Vegas 100 times since my first trip (1999? Not counting going as a kid and not gambling).

Man, those were the days. First trip, stayed at Venetian with parents and a friend. Both of us had just gotten into poker- we had read a book on 1-5 stud and assumed we were just going to print money lol. After booking big wins and losses in the 20$ range I gave blackjack a try- knew enough about the game to try and bet for/tip the dealers, but knew so little I didn't realize that if they won a bet, and DIDN'T take it, they were letting it ride LOL. So I bet for the dealer, we win, they don't take their bet, so I take it LOL. Bet again- same result. Third time I do it the dealer is visibly pissed- I ask her why and she's like "bc you keep taking my scratch" and I realized what I was doing. I sheepishly apologize, give her like 10 bucks and feel like a moron for the rest of the session. At least I played 3-6 hold em at the Mirage and realized what a better game hold em was- just in time to get good and catch the Moneymaker/online boom.

First trip out "for poker", it's now 2001? 2002? and I'm on a mission. Stayed with a friend at the Boardwalk (LOL) for a week. Poker 24/7. Hit all the cheap eats, didn't splurge or enjoy myself at all. I'm on a mission after all! Result- lost money, took no fond memories, etc. Vowed to never come to Vegas again and not have some non-gambling fun. That was an important trip too, in retrospect.

I can't tell you how many nights I spent in the Mirage poker room when it actually was the center of the poker universe. Lean back in my chair and bump into Johnny Chan, etc. Then the Bellagio got most of the limit action, I played at the Mirage for as long as I could but eventually had to make the switch.

Part of me misses those days, but for the most part I'm glad I can be just another donk tourist. That's what wife and I were realizing- there was a day not so long ago when we never would have eaten at Guy Savoy and would have pinched every penny. Now we're fortunate to be riding around in limos and not having to sweat a 24$ bottle of water that we never even ordered duh.

Geez, you keep hitting big. I'd never leave Vegas.

I'm probably too paranoid to give enough details to make it an interesting story, but over 6 months I ran ~65K over EV. (I've since given a decent chunk back).

I'm just amazed at the frequency of royals. Seems like you've been hitting one every few hours? I've gone months of regular play without hitting one (one property in particular I'm running about 6 cycles behind since my last). At least I now know where the other side of that variance is going.

It's not enough details for a statistical analysis, but for what it's worth-

Not counting the dealt royals, I can confidently say I "average" 2-3 royals per trip from a two card draw (ie, I have 3 to a royal). That's 1000:1 give or take. I've got 10 shots at it each time. I will play 10,000 unique deals, give or take, each trip.

Now the tricky part is determining how often a three card royal draw comes up But my gestalt is that I convert 3 to a royal every 100 opportunities (deals) or so, so that rough math (1000:1) works out.

Leon I would never offer advice but....

stay away from your local

If you are holding three to the RF, you should pop a RF once in 1081 tries, so one in a thousand is a great approximation. As you know, the key in multi-line vp is the initial five cards you are dealt.

Those dealt RFs go a very long way in multi-line. Keep on keeping on!

Wait wait... so are you saying that for any room service you order from Wynn that in addition to the inflated prices, you'll be automatically charged 36% extra on that, plus another $10 on top?

I know right. I did crush it there in 2019. Got my 60k hit in July 2020, but overall I'm assuming it was a loser in 2020. I'm actually not going as much as before bc, get this- the chairs suck. You read that right. My back has been bothering me off and on for months. It's been a ***** to figure out exactly what is going on- I'm a used-up former weightlifter who still tries to lift to stay fit so between old injuries, not training with any regularity, etc, it's actually been pretty tough to figure out what's going on.

I have, however, determined that it is definitely correlated with sitting for a long time, and more specifically sitting on soft chairs like they have at my local. The chairs at the Wynn, at work etc don't cause the same back pain. So as LOL as it is, what's limiting my play is not the money so much as the chairs

The correlation was quite specific. Weeks where I went more than once to the local, back would always be angry after. Weeks off/only once a week, nothing. I had already been trying to stand/alternate positions often during play, but that only works so long- standing too long is no good either bc now I'm basically hunched over.

Sigh. First world gambler problems...

This appears to be the case. At least they comp everything but the tip.

Leon, hope you don't mind a quick question. I'm staying at the Wynn next month (this thread inspired me to give it a shot instead of my usual Aria). Have a $300 comp and heading to mizumi, dining solo. Recommendation on regular table/menu vs teppan?


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If you're into sushi at all go for regular table. The teppan prices are so ridiculous, you'll burn the entire 300$ comp for sure. Regular table you've got a real chance of having enough left over for part of another meal.

It's because of things like that that I stopped staying at the Wynn. Well, that and I started running bad there. I used to stay there a lot and get the poker rate, which in the early 2000's was cheaper than many weekend rates. I hardly ever ate there and went to the Venetian food court instead. Eventually I got really tired of the absurd prices and stopped going in there altogether. It's probably been 10 years since I went in there.

Leon, thnx for a great read once again. Leavin behind a sexual metaphor: can we plz have a new bankroll pic? The rest is in the safe doesn't work for me.

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