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Pokercast Episode 310 - Phil Galfond, Joe Tall and the iGaming North America Conference Pokercast Episode 310 - Phil Galfond, Joe Tall and the iGaming North America Conference

03-27-2014 , 01:11 PM
I really disagree with Joe that a HU O8 limit game can have more variance than a NL game (HU or 6max, with FR maybe). From culling data 2 years ago I found that numbers for 6max O8 used to be around 13-14BB/100 (the split pot nature really offset the fact of the 4 cards). Now move to HU and from experience the variance roughly doubles, so you're entering 27BB/100 territory (no matter how many rivers you seem it is very hard for a limit game to go much beyond 30BB/100). Considering 6max NL at small stakes we are around 30BB/100. High stakes 6max NL is much larger due to the more aggressive nature. That was the mathematical sense of variance.

What Joe probably meant is that the edges become quite small HU in O8 as opposed to other games, you get to bound to the pot and go to showdown more often where it's not your skill that rules, but the luck of the draw. So small edges and a 27BB/100 variance make it quite likely that you will lose some (not much, but more often) and don't win much either. The poker player sees that as increased variance, the graph looks messy, even though the mathematical variance is lower. The HU NL player sees a smooth graph if the edge is high, since he's far away from the y-axis of loss, even though his variance is so much higher. That is the poker player's definition of variance - how often do I lose?
03-27-2014 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by centebakkie
Only 10% of the population of NJ know online poker is legal.
Well those kinda surveys are often very inaccurate / rigged .... it strongly depends on who/when/where u ask. And also you have to consider that majority of ppl doesnt really care about poker...
But 10% is sad anyway...
03-27-2014 , 02:24 PM
drop the beardo report imo
03-27-2014 , 02:25 PM
Interesting selection of Matt Kuchar and Adam Scott in the scratch golfer analogy. Are they MJ's two favorite pros?

Also - for those who might now know what Swingo is -- you should 100% learn it and try it. It is an incredible game with a very neat dynamic on 7th street.
03-27-2014 , 02:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kokiri
drop the beardo report imo
or have Blitz on the show one time...
He seems to play a persona of a big attentionwhore so i doubt he would hesitate to be on the pokercast ...
03-27-2014 , 03:01 PM
BEST SHOW OF THE YEAR SO FAR. REALLY ENJOYED IT !!!!!!!!! CONGRATS

Would be awesome guys if you posted a few pics of the recording in the studio
03-27-2014 , 03:10 PM
Great show. Not sure if it was the two in-person guests or the fact that there was a female observer present, but the dynamics seemed to be different. I'm guessing it had more to do with the latter. In any case, thanks for the show, was great to hear Phil and Joe talk as well as the occasional chime-in by Farah.
03-27-2014 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elbuennico
BEST SHOW OF THE YEAR SO FAR. REALLY ENJOYED IT !!!!!!!!! CONGRATS

Would be awesome guys if you posted a few pics of the recording in the studio
Yeah, definitely should have done that. OMGClay had an incredible audio set-up. The whole scene resembled the Eddie Murphy 'Party All The Time' video.

03-27-2014 , 04:05 PM
I love how Rick James just couldn't handle it in the box any longer and had to come out and sing
03-27-2014 , 04:50 PM
The hot streak continues!! another great show IMO.

I disagree with the chap who said that having Farah was irrelevant. she clearly knew her stuff and even so the occasional comments and laugher gave the show a real hangout feel that as a listener I enjoy.

finally what odds can I get on next weeks intro being a submitted reference to the pee bottle incident?
03-27-2014 , 06:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UCBananaboy
Also - for those who might now know what Swingo is -- you should 100% learn it and try it. It is an incredible game with a very neat dynamic on 7th street.
From the PCA mixed-game bracket, the rules of Swingo.

Truly great poker game.
03-27-2014 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bellatrix

What Joe probably meant is that the edges become quite small HU in O8 as opposed to other games, you get to bound to the pot and go to showdown more often where it's not your skill that rules, but the luck of the draw. So small edges and a 27BB/100 variance make it quite likely that you will lose some (not much, but more often) and don't win much either. The poker player sees that as increased variance, the graph looks messy, even though the mathematical variance is lower. The HU NL player sees a smooth graph if the edge is high, since he's far away from the y-axis of loss, even though his variance is so much higher. That is the poker player's definition of variance - how often do I lose?
Yep. I was overstating, as the adage of "split pot games have less variance" just isn't something that holds so well, esp shorthanded.
03-27-2014 , 07:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by QuirkyBoy
Well those kinda surveys are often very inaccurate / rigged .... it strongly depends on who/when/where u ask. And also you have to consider that majority of ppl doesnt really care about poker...
But 10% is sad anyway...
The survey was run by Ultimate Gaming and the data was delivered by
Tom Breitling, Chairman, Ultimate Gaming
Tobin Prior, CEO, Ultimate Gaming

at their keynote of "What we learned in our first year."
03-27-2014 , 09:00 PM
Invitational be up:

T# 887343900
03-28-2014 , 12:02 AM
JoeTall,

Please explain to Mike and Adam some of the games you and Chuck would play on HeyBall with guests. I.e. the different variant's of Joe's Tall Tales, etc.

I know they are looking for some stuff to add to the show.
03-28-2014 , 02:17 AM
Can we stop calling California "financially challenged" and " desperate for money", we had a 2.4 billion dollar surplus in 2013.
03-28-2014 , 06:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Johnson
Yeah, definitely should have done that. OMGClay had an incredible audio set-up. The whole scene resembled the Eddie Murphy 'Party All The Time' video.

Oh BTW, you're not the least interesting person in the world. One people more subscribing to your tweeter Sir.

What's Adam's one please ? Would like to follow too.
03-28-2014 , 06:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eloisezilla
Can we stop calling California "financially challenged" and " desperate for money", we had a 2.4 billion dollar surplus in 2013.
and debt free I presume?
03-28-2014 , 09:00 AM
Great episode. I really enjoyed this format.
03-28-2014 , 10:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurr
and debt free I presume?
By this standard there isn't a state or country in the Americas that isn't desperate for money.
03-28-2014 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurr
and debt free I presume?
Pshaw, it's easy to run a surplus when you have no interest to pay, only a really strong economy can generate a surplus when riddled with debt.
03-28-2014 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elbuennico
Oh BTW, you're not the least interesting person in the world. One people more subscribing to your tweeter Sir.

What's Adam's one please ? Would like to follow too.
@pokercastadam
03-28-2014 , 03:00 PM
My first tweet:
Spoiler:

@kokiri

Yesterday I found (aka picked up by accident) a dead rat that was buried in my veg patch. It was surprisingly heavy, and not very pleasant

8:22 PM - 25 Jan 2009


Class, right from the outset.
03-28-2014 , 04:26 PM
A propos the math problem discussed early on: in a random group of 23 people, there is a >50% chance that two of them have the same birthday.
03-28-2014 , 04:33 PM
Yeah. I guess Adam, or whoever it was who said 32 transposed the digits in his mind

      
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