Maybe people aren't predicting fights solely by mma math.

heh, looks like I way overrate JDS compared to you guys.

If you're including variance in your lists (rather than just giving the favorite an automatic win), no way can Werdum be 0-6. Even if you peg him as a dog against all 6, you'd have to assume he manages to pick up at least 1 win. He was a huge dog to Fedor, and got a win. I don't see how he manages to lose 6 fights in a row.

Werdum could beat Overeem in the rematch, and still have no respect from anyone because he's a "ufc washout."

Really, I think Werdum has a really good chance against Lesnar. I favor him by points in the standup, and I think no matter how much Brock has learned on the ground, each minute spent there puts him at risk. And lets not hear any comparisons to Brock-Mir 2.

i think JDS is great, really like him a lot. but overeem is a better striker, i think cain/brock/fedor would all be favorites vs him, and carwin would have a decent chance to win as well. i think its just that the top 6 heavyweights are so ****ing good, winning 1 or 2 fights vs them is a solid accomplishment.


and werdums abilities shouldnt lead towards variance, ESPECIALLY after the fedor fight. everyone knew werdum was one of the best bjj practitioners but for some reason we all just assumed he was a top position guy. we watch him in adcc and he just grinds people out and doesnt really sub many guys. but now that people are a bit more aware of just how good he is on the ground, specifically off his back, they would be much more careful about fighting on his turf.

he does have pretty good striking, but everyone on that list either has great striking, completely ******ed power or both. i think after the fedor fight, the guys on that list would fight much tighter and less reckless, and i think werdum finishes 0-6 more than 1-5 or 2-4. i guess his EV might be above .5 wins, but i think 0-6 is the most likely result

variance in the other fights is based on how hard those guys hit, how strong they are to get takedowns, how smooth their transitions are, etc. i think most of the fighters would attempt an arlovski type gameplan against him after seeing his triangle armbar vs the goat.

i guess rethinking things a little id adjust my records a little bit to the following:

overeem, fedor, cain, brock 4-2
jds/carwin: one 2-4 one 3-3
werdum 0-6

It seems like you are saying that grappling has little to no variance, which I think is completely untrue. But I doubt you're actually saying that.

Think about what Werdum's odds would be against each fighter. He could come in at an average of +500 and that means that in the end he would average out a single win (or 1-5). I can't even imagine Werdum actually being +500 average, so I think not giving him a single win is terribly off.

So then how does someone like Lesnar beat Werdum with consistency? I doubt he is going to establish a jab or try to work combinations. Lesnar's standup is pretty poor, and Werdum's chin is not going to collapse like Randy's.

no, not saying that at all. meant more that werdum wont be able to get it to his greatest strength on the ground vs any of these guys consistently.

however, that being said, his striking is really very underrated. he has pretty decent standup, and i think with that he could have better odds vs a guy like brock because he really is much higher level than mir on the ground and he would have a striking edge on brock. styles make fights and its possible werdum would only be around +250 vs brock, but man he just seems to match up so badly vs the other guys who are all better strikers/wrestlers and have massive power. but youre right, 0-6 isnt as likely as we expect

but another aspect that i think youre overlooking is mentality. if werdum started out 0-3 i think he would be a pretty massive dog in fights after that because its hard to overcome that sort of adversity, losing 3 fights and then fighting 3 more monsters. whereas someone who was winning/losing/winning/losing would still be confident in his abilities and close strong.

You're right, I did overlook that aspect, but purposely so. I pretty much ignored the whole premise about them fighting "6 times over the course of 2 years." Some fighters would improve over 2 years, others seem to have already passed their primes. Adding in all those other factors would make it too complicated and impossible for us to give any meaningful analysis with just a few numbers.

im surpirsed no one has mentioned european league soccer players and also college football players (especially in the sec and texas), i mean check out pics of brodie croyles wife whom he met in college


also as bad as this is going to sound i have a hard time seeing fedor win more then 3 of those fights, i think he gets werdum pretty much every time now but i think reem is moderately strong favorite while the other 4 fights r flips with him prolly being a 55-45 fav agianst carwin, jds, and brock with cain being a 50/50 i mean even if hes 60-40 in all 4 that still wouldnt put him 4-2 when you consider equity, to be honest i think its more likely that he goes 2-4 then 4-2 but i have a feeling this post will not be well received

lastly i agree with most that have reem and cain with the most wins although ide prolly lay 50-1 that none of the 6 would be able to go undefeated

one other thing to add is if the fights involving fedor are in cages or not, i think he definitely losses at least 1 extra fight if all 6 fights are in cages because of how well the bigger wrestlers would be able to use the cage against him that he showed some problems adjusting to against rogers who isnt in the same league as the 4 fighters in question

So you thought it was likely that Fedor would go 2-4. Adding in your -1 penalty due to cage, you think Fedor would go 1-5? Sounds off to me.

And why does Overeem get no cage penalty? Is it because we haven't seen him struggle with the cage yet? He really has had so few mma fights stateside that we can't make any kind of judgement in that area anyways.

Search Tim Tebow's girlfriend, she is insane. I don't think they are still together but when they were the pics of her were going around.

He gets destroyed by Carwin...Cain has never subbed anyone..I would love to see Cain vs Mir...to me they are even no doubt here...I understand though why the UFC doesn't do Cain vs JDS...Both those matches is where Cain is at and would have to go through but the UFC lacks a guy or two to make main events for Brock.
"hardcores" just don't like Brock...People would be jacking off if Cain had lost to Stephen Neal as a jr..he is just the freak Brock is but didn't go in the WWE and went to the NFL after wrestling..not to mention if he did this..As if Cain is a better wrestler than Hand, yea ok..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvu0E8RNmcs

Probably easily 70% of "hardcore" MMA fans are kids that got the **** beat out of them by guys like Brock in highschool...Find every reason to knit pick.."his stand up is goofy"..I would so rather take a punch from Cain than Brock..Brock is a monster..

I would bet on this fight if Brock wasn't in the WWE before..but then again Brock would be the Fedor killer with hardcores if he hadn't been in the WWE and this line would be different..

I mostly though hope Brock runs through all these guys so UFC has to sign the Reem...Overeem will kill JDS and Cain..I'm done with Fedor, just don't care anymore..

Brock vs the Reem...or Carwin vs the Reem..no idea...Carwin will probably be done before Overeem gets into the UFC though.



I'm just not impressed by Cain's power in standup...

It funny cause probably the most talented guys in that list are Fedor and Cain, and I honestly think Werdum is really dangerous to both of them. I don't think I need to explain why do I?

fyp

Has Overeem ever really shown good defensive wrestling? Wasn't he taken down and controlled on the ground by both Shogun and Lil Nog? I'm asking because I haven't seen these fights and that's the impression I'm under. If that is true then why would it be any different against Cain? Cain's standup is good enough that Overeem won't completely overwhelm him and I don't see how he'd be able to keep the fight standing.

Overeem's offensive wrestling is great, but he's always had problems defensively. Most people's excuse for it is that he gassed out, and for some reason they don't think he will gas out now that he's gained 40 lbs of muscle.

I don't think Cain's standup is good enough to hang with Overeem though. He is leagues above Lesnar, but he showed holes in his defense against both Kongo and Rothwell (for the split second that it was standing).

i think there an easy example to look at in the difference look at how each handled rogers in the clinch, reem dominated and threw rogers to the ground and fedor got jammed up against the cage for a good portion of round 1, I think fedor goes 2-4 if its all cage fights but 3-3 if they r not all in cages, i dunno though his punching power and standup is as good or better compared anyone's on that list except reem imo I just think its tough to see him getting 4 wins given how poorly he handled the cage against a guy who wouldn't do well against any of the other 4 guys in that aspect (not counting werdum)

I think Cain's stand up is massively overrated

I don't see how. No one's saying he should stand and bang with JDS and Overeem. Just that he has a big edge over Lesnar, which is accurate.

I don't think his edge is as big as you think it is

Hahah , seems like Mikey is catching some heat for a comment he made about Jeremy Stephans never amounting to anything in a MMA. Thread on the UG is ripping at him and they put his email up and ****.

Gotta admit Mikey, half the hating sarcastic comments you make in your "quotes" section are pretty pathetic and unprofessional. How will Jeremy never amount to anything when hes already been fighting in the UFC for years?

A decent wrestler would keep it standing with Werdum...
Werdum vs Mir would be interesting..Everyone else is just going to KO him standing...

Werdum has better stand up them most give him credit for. People forget he TKOed Gonzaga before it seemed to the "IN" thing to do haha. Just because JDS KOed him once doesn't mean much.

that's hilarious, I just read that article and was kind of taken aback reading the Jeremy Stephens part. I think he's already accomplished more than most fighters could ever hope to do in their entire careers, and he's only 24.

But it's not like I was actually offended by reading it.

Hey, as long as Mikey never takes the Snowden troll-purposely-for-attention route with his articles, I will keep reading them and enjoying it.

Reem's defensive wrestling IMO is what would make for such interesting match ups...
Who knows where he is at beyond striking...He would destroy JDS though...No way JDS want's to take him down, no way he can stand with him..
Guys improve...Any Overreem fight at 205 is beyond meaningless here...
I would love to see Cain vs Overreem instead of Cain vs Brock..That would tell the tail of where both are at...
It is sooo absurd we are getting Brock vs Cain , winner vs JDS instead of JDS vs Cain...That match up is perfect..almost as good as a Reem, JDS, Cain 3 way...You can call me a "troll" but you are kidding yourself...I understand though business wise for the UFC that match makes zero sense...
I want Brock to lose...Makes so so many more interesting match ups..But "hardcore" nerds are acting if as Cain has hands of stone..and he just does not, no matter how many videos you watch on how to strike "technically" or overate the zombie punching bag pride big nog...
I don't even get why a Cain fan would want him to stand with Brock, other than "Brock stand up looks goofy"...as if he doesn't hit like a **** ton of bricks because he is a ****ing freak...