Castro still has the second most posts in the Idol forums last I checked. I think that's a really good indicator of fan interest. I think his bottom 3 appearance this week was producer bull**** and he really wasn't bottom 3 in votes at all.

i think you're wrong

also, ramielle's ability to stay out of the B3 this week is very telling

Ramiele had everything working against her and stayed out. She is in good shape to go deep if she can actually pick a good song and sing it well. I still don't know if she's T4 material anymore, but she has the potential.

I don't really think so. There wasn't a lot of parity this week so I'd bet most votes were going to David C and Michael Johns on performance, David A and Brooke on popularity, and the rest is a crapshoot. So say the distribution of votes was like 25% 20% 15% 12% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2%. It doesn't mean much that she managed to pull 5% of the vote from the people who have yellow fever or reflexively vote for whoever sings Heart, etc. That doesn't imply that she'll be able to build the coalitions of 20% or more that she'll need to keep surviving when it gets to the nitty-gritty.

A weird bottom 3 this week; I didn't expect Jason or Syesha in there. But with Syesha now being in it two weeks in a row, it's becoming clear she doesn't have that big a fan base and people are realizing she's unlikable and cold. Jason's appearance in the bottom 3 is much more telling, indicating his apparent slide at the hands of voters getting sick of his shtick.

I'm really surprised Ramiele wasn't even in the bottom 3 this week, but I don't think that means she's a front-runner. She's too inconsistent to win.

Hey pj,

Now you're being modest, acting surprised, or just plain not even remembering what you've said earlier. Um, you predicted Jason to be in the bottom 3.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...3&postcount=17

So after picking correctly again with Chikezie, what does that make this, like 4 or 5 straight successes in a row on eliminations?

If the B3 has been lowest 3 votes each week, then Kristy, Syesha, Amanda, Chikezie, Carly, and Castro have all been jumbling around every week of the finals.

That means that half of the field would be known to be interchangeable every week. Doubtful that there's some enormous gap between the more popular of those and the next couple people above that range, so really over 3/4 of the field would probably be interchangeable in position at any time.

The only real gap might have been between Arch and all others initially, but he's been coming down, and this past week, Cook might even have overtaken him, and he was likely just middle of the field earlier, so for him to close that gap would mean that it wasn't that huge in the first place.

What's the point of all this? Just that the voting gaps are likely small, and most of the contestants' positions are interchangeable, depending on weekly performances and short-term trends/momentum. Every performance probably matters more this season than any other. Given that, anyone could go home and anyone could rise towards the top each week.


So someone like Ramiele with a unique, proven, and dedicated fanbase can definitely rise to the top and be a contender.


For those with the opposite argument, that the gaps are large, and that contestants have relatively fixed voting levels from their fanbases, the argument is even easier. Rami's never been B3 while others have, so if you go by that, then she's at least top 5 and has just as good a shot at the top as any.

I agree with this. Obviously, if Ramiele never delivers a solid performance from here on out, she has no chance of winning. You can say this for just about every contestant, probably even David A. However, if she can start doing some powerful songs and do one that really sticks out, she has the initial fan base to keep her in this thing. Think Jordin last year. Wasn't B3, but didn't seem to stand out, and had a mess of okay, but inconsistent performances. But then, she had one turning performance (I can't remember exactly - was it "I Who Have Nothing"? If that's even the title of that song...) and was elevated to contender status. Not much later, she was among the favorites.

Please, no one reply with "OMG I CAN'T BELIEVE YOU'RE COMPARING RAMIELE WITH JORDIN." My point is, the middle of the pack here is so fluid that anyone can see a huge jump in popularity if they can deliver that outstanding performance. Betting wise, this means that the cheaper contestants like Ramiele and Syesha have more value (and of course, more risk) than the more favored ones.

Brooke White
David A.
David Cook
Jason C.

I thin Carly and Michael have good shots, but there seems to be more support for the others.

Davids, Brooke are the easy ones, IMO. I'm going to lob Michael in my T4 guess.

Not that easy, Brooke could easily not make the T3.

Thing is right. The top-priced contenders have been way over-valued this year, while the low-priced contenders have been undervalued. Make your buys/sells accordingly, i.e. sell Cook and buy Ramiele/Syesha/low-priced contenders.

Sorry I meant "easy for me to pick" but not necessarily thinking it ties in with reality. I came very late to this party. I might play some fantasy next season if I think of it.

Syesha is the better Jordin analogue. I'd say Ramielle is more like a prettier but less talented Lakisha.

Syesha is analogous to Jordin (or has the potential to be), but I don't think there is any comparison between Ramiele and Lakisha. They have different target demographics, different styles, and even different positions in the competition at this point. But yes, she is way prettier.

Also, Ramiele is only $3 whereas I don't know if Lakisha was ever even close to that cheap, aside from when she was eliminated. I'd much rather buy Ramiele at $3 than Lakisha for $8-12, or whatever she was at this point last season.

llabb -- oops, you're right I did predict Jason in the B3. At some point during the results show I forgot, or else I became as convinced as all you guys that he's destined for the top 5 (which I still doubt he is). Good to see my powers are still sharp.

Ok good stuff. If you haven't given a guess yet please do by Tuesday. I don't really care that a week passed in the middle and like I said no money or bragging rights on the line. Just nice to have a poll with only "sharp" people on a sports betting forum voting rather than other polls out there were 13 year old girls are voting 10,000 times a day for Archuleta.

I'm seeing

Archuleta 12
David Cook 11 (one missing is me and if I wanted a redo Its him over Michael)
Brooke 8
Castro 7
Michael 3
Ramiele 3
Carly 2
Syesha 2
KLC 0

I still have no idea why Carly is priced higher than Brooke. But at least Brooke isn't stuck at 1 3 anymore so I guess we're making baby steps.

You don't have ears ?

Brooke is average at best. Carly is a very good singer who just happens to have an image problem.

My four :

1) David C
2) David A
3) Carly
4) Michael

Brooke, Castro and Ramiele seriously do not have the talent to be in the top 4 although their popularity may unfortunately get them there.

Michael for me is the dark horse. The guy has been just ok since hollywood week and he hasn't even sniffed the bottom three. I've thought he sucked actually most of the time in his live performances but in the studio versions he sounds very very good. If he actually catches fire he could surprise.

I would rather listen to Brooke than Carly any day -- and more importantly, I think a lot of the country agrees.

AI final 4

david A
david C
Michael johns
brooke
don't laugh, but i think KLC has an outside chance at top 4 if she sticks to country (lianne rimes, faith hill, edwin mccain etc. type stuff)
it's pretty hard between #1 and #2 and who knows if they want boy/girl final? how many have been single sex finals so far??

i've been big fan of the brooke vs. carly last longer where carly is favoured, but i do think brooke is being exposed on a weekly basis. seems like the people who don't have strong musical/performing backgrounds are eventually exposed.

i have to agree that michael johns is a good longshot bet. underline longshot though, you have to get him really cheaply.

Ok, so that makes two confirmed with hearing problems here . . .

I would rather not listen to either of them, but Brooke is the more boring of the two.

Huh? Carly may be the "better singer" in the abstract, but Brooke has far far better tone. If you took Carly's singing chops and combined them with Brooke's voice, you'd have a frontrunner.

Huh ? I'm not sure even you could figure out what you were trying to say here :

Look it's pointless to debate which one is better. My problem with Brooke is that she has no range (Has she sung anything other than ballads ?) and doesn't have very good pitch or tone control. Everytime I listen to her sing, I say, "hey she sounds pretty good, maybe she . . . oops there she's lost it". She's all over the place when she sings. She may have a good voice, but if she can't control it . . .

David Cook is the exact opposite. He has a pretty average voice but he makes the absolute most out of it by staying in perfect pitch and tone at all times. Carly does the same for the most part.

apples and oranges for me here. Brooke and Carly have very different styles, and Brooke is very good at what she does and Carly is very good at what she does. I have a feeling you don't like Brooke's I guess i'd call it folk-pop style. Not a fan of Sheryl Crow or Colbie Caillat I'd bet.

We shall see who lasts longer on Idol and who becomes a bigger star post AI in the future. My money is on Brooke and Brooke.

Actually the exact opposite, it's just that Brooke really doesn't do it very well. I'd love to hear you thoughts or counter to what I said about her voice above.

I'm pretty sure that neither will be a "star" in any right post Idol.

Funny, I think I read that somewhere before . . . .