Lets see if anyone man's up. It seems there's a good amount of interest in AI and we've got some sharp people here but there is too much reviewing and repeating and not enough going out on a limb and predicting for me. I'm interested to see who's in your T4. Obviously Arch's a lock but I'm curious about the rest. I know at least one person put Syesha/Carly/Ramiele in the Finals at one point, so I'm curious are their bandwagons now empty or is anyone still on? How about the Castro/Michael/Cook situation?

I'm going to stick with my original prediciton. If I were starting from scratch I'd put David Cook in over Michael Johns but I'll keep him in just because if this is right it would be quite a feat considering Castro opened at 1 3 and Brooke was stuck at 1 3 for the longest time while girls like Kady, KLC and Asia'h were almost triple her price.

1. David Archuleta
2 & 3. Brooke White/Jason Castro- I honestly can't pick between them.
4. Michael Johns

David A
Jason C
Ramiele
David C

IMO, the reviewing and analyzing is much more significant than a list of names. Someone is going to guess someone that no one else guesses, that contestant will make the T4, and then the person who predicted it will say "OMG LOOK I'M THE BEST AI HANDICAPPER EVER." At any rate, predictions are fun even though they have no real value.

I'm scratching my head trying to predict the T4 because I'm tempted to have the T3 all male, but that just doesn't seem likely. Oh well, here goes.

1. David A
2. Jason C.
3. David C.
4. Ramiele

Just for fun:

5. Brooke
6. Michael
7. Carly
8. Syesha
9. Chikeze
10. KLC

Ramiele is my underdog pick. I have a hard time believing that the 4 favorites right now (David A, Castro, David C., and Brooke) will be the T4. IMO, the WSEX market hasn't reflected the fact that Carly is probably below these 4 right now, or at best tied for #4.

1. David A
2. Jason C
3. David C
4. Brooke

Yeah good point especially at this point in the game. Someone who at the beginning might have had both Kady and Asia'h in their T4 could easily predict it right today, but really who cares? Like you said its just for fun and we can tally it up and maybe the results will be interesting in some way. Tomorrow's the big traffic day so maybe we'll get some more predictions but so far 4 lists and no Carly's, where her backers at- where they at?

It'd be pretty bold of someone to put Carly in th T4 after her B3 appearance, but I still think it's possible. If I had to assign a % to it, I'd say she's 10-20% to make the T4.

1. David A.
2. Jason
3. David C.

I really think the fourth spot is completely up for grabs. Obviously it would most likely go to a woman, and a week ago I would have said Brooke, but she is just so god damn annoying with the fact that she won't STFU while the judges are talking. I am going to go with a bit of a surprise and say:

4. Carly

I think the rest of them will shake out something like this, with a few surprise eliminations in the 7 and 8 spots:

5. Brooke
6. Chikezie
7. Ramiele
8. Michael
9. Syesha
10. Kristy

Interesting that most have Jason ranked #2, yet he is #5 on the WSEX lines. Suggests some value there.

I cannot figure out who takes away his votes more - David A and the teen girl vote, or Brooke with the hippy/singer-songwriter feel vote. I'm thinking he splits with Brooke, and whichever of the two survives makes it in the top 2-3.

Top 4.

David A., David C., Brooke, Ramiele, I give Carly my darkhorse vote to sneak in but her B3 last week is alarming.

I think Castro's support is as big as it's going to get and as others favorites start to get knocked out, those viewers will jump aboard the Brooke, Ramiele and David C. trains.

Amanda and Michael fans will likely ship their votes to David C.
Kristy Lee Cook fans will start voting for Brooke or Remiele
Syesha fans will do the same

Now that I think about it, if Archuleta doesn't have it wrapped up already, he might have a tough run as i also don't see fans of the elminated singers moving their votes to David A.

For those who follow this closer than me, how many fans just stop voting altogether when their fave gets knocked out as opposed to picking a new horse(when I say horse, I am not referring to Carly's grill)?

I don't know the answer to your question, but I definitely got a good laugh out of this.

Hey Mike, how about a prop bet on David Cook not making the Top 4? ... oh that's right, micro limit players don't make prop bets too bad...

i lol'ed

Ramiele has 0% chance at top 4.

Archuleta, Castro, Cook are the smart money top 3. A girl HAS to make top 4 though and IMO it's gonna be whoever shows better between Brooke and Carly. Carly's been in the bottom 3 though already and Brooke probably hasn't even sniffed it yet. Slight edge to Brooke.

I suspect as each week passes, many of us will want to revise our T4 predictions. Obviously anyone who had Ramiele in the T4 (myself included) probably doesn't think she has a shot after last night. I still wouldn't put it at 0% though. Almost everyone has a shot right now because the middle of the competition (probably spots 2-5) are still up for grabs. Every week, the order changes based on who performs well...no one has been a consistent favorite besides Archuleta to this point, and even he has shown some weaknesses.

Revised T4:

1. David A.
2. David C.
3. Carly
4. Jason
--------
5. Brooke
6. Syesha
7. Michael
8. Ramiele
9. KLC
10. Chikeze

In my defence I did post that prior to last night's performance. I still think she's got at least a couple more weeks in her. I figured 2 girls would have to make top 4 and with Syesha and Carly already in the B3 in previous weeks, Ramiele and Brooke were the only females who consistently were safe. I wouldn't say 0% chance but I'm not surprised if she's B3 tonight.

Ramiele has been bad for what, a month now? How long can the Asian fetishists keep her around?

I don't think Ramiele has been bad. She actually sounds pretty good. She just isn't a performer. I was high on her in the early going but she is not doing anything to improve her position. She does not stand out in any way.

Come on people, step up to the challenge. I think this could be useful if we get a larger sample size. Maybe after tonights elimination we'll get some more ballots- it doesn't matter if your right or wrong or when you predict- just do it.

So far I see 7 ballots and we've got
Archuleta 7
Castro 6
David C. 6
Brooke 4
Ramiele 3
Michael 1
Carly 1
Syesha, Chikeze, KLC 0

Fine. My top 4 (in random order) would be:

David A (I don't like him but cannot deny the huge following)
David C (I don't like this kind of music but still admit he is good)
Syesha (I think she can put a string together)
Michael (Has never been in the bottom despite not being all that great since auditions - had the loudest cheer last night and could also put a run together)

David, David, Brooke, Syesha

If by bad, you mean better than Jasmine Trias, top 3 finisher, then yes, I agree.

Much tougher season though, so could go at any time.

I think this is right, except maybe Carly over Syesha.

David, David, Brooke, Syesha, and Carly really have to be the top 5. It's hard to imagine Chikezie, Ramiele, or Kristy will survive much longer, and Jason and Michael always seem to be missing something.

I'm really liking this pick.

This poll is going to be meaningless if people predict at different times. It shows 3 people predicting Ramiele in the T4, but if you took the poll after last night, probably no one would pick her. Castro's number would probably be way down too.