Theory question - nut draw vs made flush - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

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Theory question - nut draw vs made flush

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03-04-2018 , 10:14 PM

Last Laugh

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 429

Just a hypothetical. Curious what people's thoughts are.

Let's say you have 45s and the flop comes all spades, giving you a low made flush. Now let's say we know for a fact that your opponent has the ace of spades (his other card is not in play)

If you are in position and your opponent bets the flop, would you shove in order to protect your hand with some fold equity? Or would you aim smaller for value (giving him drawing odds) and just give up the ~30% of times the 4th spade comes?

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03-04-2018 , 10:21 PM

Ojune

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 5,173

it's not a theory question, you can't see other ppl cards

and if you can see he has the nfd you shouldn't shove on the flop, you bet smaller and abandon ship if a spade comes

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03-04-2018 , 10:43 PM

.isolated

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,315

Quote:

Originally Posted by Last Laugh

Or would you aim smaller for value (giving him drawing odds) and just give up the ~30% of times the 4th spade comes?

In your hypothetical, you're in position which means you can bet twice to charge him if he doesn't shove flop to your raise. How are you giving him odds on a "~30%" considering he's not ~30% to hit on the next card and you're presumably making money when he calls a bet size of x.

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would you shove in order to protect your hand with some fold equity?

No and you don't want him to fold, either.

This question is better suited to the beginner questions, poker theory, or probability subforum instead of this one.

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03-04-2018 , 11:28 PM

Last Laugh

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 429

Quote:

Originally Posted by .isolated

How are you giving him odds on a "~30%" considering he's not ~30% to hit on the next card and you're presumably making money when he calls a bet size of x.

I just meant that he's ~30% to hit by the river, but I see your point.

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Originally Posted by .isolated

This question is better suited to the beginner questions, poker theory, or probability subforum instead of this one.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks.

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03-04-2018 , 11:46 PM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,615

Does he know what we have?

Do we know how he reacts to raises and/or he continues to bluff on turns/rivers?

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03-05-2018 , 12:15 AM

Last Laugh

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2014 Posts: 429

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brokenstars

Does he know what we have?

Do we know how he reacts to raises and/or he continues to bluff on turns/rivers?

That's interesting, hadn't considered.

In my mind it was basically that he'll keep drawing given the right odds, or he'll fold to a bigger bet/shove.

Basically:

We take down a larger pot 2/3 of the time and lose a larger pot 1/3 of the time.

vs

Taking down a smaller pot on the flop 100% of the time.

Obviously it's a major oversimplification, but that's basically my question.

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03-05-2018 , 12:56 AM

Brokenstars

Verified Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 16,615

Well again it depends on his future actions, if he doesn't continue bluffing ott then we should probably just raise and gain ev immediately.

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