Hi guys, after taking a break from Poker (mainly cause of lots of uni work to do etc) I've come back. I started out nl20 and ran at over 11 big blinds/100 for about 15k hands so I took a 2 buy-in shot at nl50 (because I wasn't properly rolled for it yet). Things went OK for about 4k hands and was up about $250 (although not nearly as good bb/100 as nl20). Then for the next 4k hands I lost it all and am now going to move back down to nl20 (without loosing the initial 2 buy-in shot). Once I have built my BR a little more I may take another shot. I've been trying to explain these events to myself and would appreciate your comments:
a) I am not a profitable player in any sense and I just got lucky. (I don't think this is THAT likely since my stats fit very well with what this thread
says is a good TAG and I have put a lot of time and effort into improving my game over the last few years).
b) I'm a profitable NL20 player but not at NL50. This is def a realistic possibility since I'm so new to this level, I know there will be leaks in my game and although I tend to come to the same conclusions as the regular 2+2 posters I can see my hand reading skills defiantly need improving. However I'm not convinced this is the mostly likely reason as I don’t feel there is THAT much difference between NL20 and NL 50. Also my stats say to me that I'm quite a good solid player at these levels.
c) I am profitable at both these levels but had an average first 4k hands followed by a bad 4k hands. I feel like this is the most likely explanation but am not very experienced in variance so its hard to say.
Any thoughts on this would be greatly appreciated since whether it is a, b or c will effect how quickly I try to move up again. Here are some stats on me and thoughts on my leaks:
Other than the basics I'm not that great at interpreting my stats (not had too much experience at it). After reading the info at the beginning of this thread I see that my stats fit the bill for a good TAG (which I'm happy about
).
1. Firstly I notice my vpip is WAY too high for the SB and at nl50 particularly is a big leak in terms of bb/100. This is also the same for BB but not quite as much. Can anyone give me any advice to improve this? Note: I'm playing premium hands (obviously) plus SC & PP's very aggressively from this position (I've read a lot about defending and stealing blinds and THINK I do this quite well). What occasions would you just complete the SB?
2. W$SD%: This seems OK in general (I think but this thread is a little vague on this one) but for nl50 I'm quite a bit below 50, so this could mean I'm calling off bluffs too often (I felt I was getting quite good at this at NL20 and so I think its possible that I now do it too much cause I'm a bit over confident) or is it just this low because I play so aggressive or because I've hit a bad patch or because I'm bluffing in bad spots/too much?
3. I also noticed that a big looser is my one pair hands (particularly NL50), is this normal?. I think I probably bet 2nd & 3rd pair hands (semi-bluff on flop) a bit too much, any advice on this? I also think that I maybe spewing a little too much with my TP hands. (I think if Alex writes his article about pot control this could maybe help me here quite a lot (I am eagerly awaiting it Alex
).)
I know I don't have enough hands for NL50 to be able to read too much into it (especially if I've been running bad) but surely there must be some convergence plus all my hands together come to about 26k which must help.
Comments on anything I have mentioned so far (or on something that I haven't noticed) would be greatly appreciated, I will be happy to post more screen shots/info if you need any.
Thanks, very much in advance.
PS. Apologies for the long post
My general stats:
My Graph (all hands):
My Graph (NL50 only):
My Positional Stats (all hands):
My Positional Stats (NL50):
My Showdown Hands (all hands):
My Showdown Hands (NL50):