This is the 6th hand of the match... he limped his first button and folded a dry flop to my donk and that's the only flop we've seen.

Party Poker $200.00 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN/SB): $200.80
BB: $199.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is BTN/SB with J K
BB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12.00) 9 6 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $8.00, Hero raises to $24, BB calls $16

Turn: ($60.00) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks

River: ($60.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $40.00

c/r on the flop is kinda silly. no reason to do it here. you're repping like a flush draw, maybe A9, and a set...you can pick much better spots.

also, he's shoving most draws on the flop, no? 78 might reasonably get to the river as played, but that's pretty much it. it's kinda a weird valuebet if he has a 9, but i think without reads, it's prolly a fold.

fwiw lets keep the thread on topic and just discuss the river... thanks.

So he's not shoving sets/2 pairs on the flop? Or betting the turn with them?

If we think he's value betting a 9 then obviously shoving is best... but I doubt anyone at 1/2 can value bet a 9 here.

it is hard ffor me to see a five in his range with the craise on flop. seems like a flush draw or 78 oc complete air. this is not a bbad place to call for info imo even thogh every draw except flush hit. so either way i dont mind.

tbh if he does value bet thin, i guess he can really vbet a 9 here. but tbh i think he does show up with air a lot. not sure if this would be a +EV call, but i think it can be good for game play dynamics. i rly don't see any 5x hands in his range bc he would be folding them if it was just a gutter most likely, and be shoving if he had combo draws such as 58ss.

this does look like a bluff a lot, but i might just fold a see how the game develops before i make a call like this. i wanna see if he's capable of value betting that thin.

i never said he had a set or 2 pair, but i valuebet K9 or A9 on the river all day. prolly check a weaker 9 tho.

I think i bet something like T9+ on that river so in some cases bluffshoving could be good (tho id need a read). Call is no good tho imo

Call isn't too bad and the info you gain from it will be really useful later on.

no. as far as hero calls go i think if i never made a hero call in my life id have a lot more money

Whoa, I totally misread this hand. For some reason I thought you had K9 and villain c/raised flop. My bad.

Maybe if the board paired or something but if hes just playing deck here then there aren't that many hands that you beat... I mean sure you could say that he wouldn't bet a lot of those hands that have KJ beat here, but you just don't really know what hand he might have decided to turn into a bluff.

Board as is:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 6s 2d 4d 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.636% 18.18% 00.45% 180 4.50 { KcJh }
Hand 1: 81.364% 80.91% 00.45% 801 4.50 { random }


---

Board paired:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 6s 2d 4d 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.414% 35.96% 00.45% 356 4.50 { KcJh }
Hand 1: 63.586% 63.13% 00.45% 625 4.50 { random }


---

i think this is fine, think he bets bigger with a 5 a fair bit (though obviously far from a guarantee) and rly only has like 93 (which would bet the turn a fair bit, especially if he is fishy as hinted at by his limp) or maybe 63 that he could be v-betting other than a 5. You beat floated gutters, 78 and pretty much all flush draws (wieghed away from NFD since many ppl will both take their showdown value and play it faster on the flop). You also look rly fishy and get more action.

I agree that the spazz factor makes this the only thin element of the hand. Like if I had 9x, i would snap call even though against normal/non spazzy opponents they r very close to the same hand

i don't like it, seems extremely optimistic

fold > shove> call imo....

this

I'm calling. I'm just a loose caller in general. You can't win by folding.

i was thinking this, if we didnt beleive him, we should rather shove

i think villain got T8, 7T, 78 etc a high percentage of the time, i dont see many straights in his range and most randoms dont valuebet 9x on that board....if i got a read that he can vbet thin, i fold....if not, i think calling is good. shoving can be fun too, though it's hard for you to rep a straight...

i'm guessing the converter screwed up the whole pf thing, but yeah i think fold > shove > call because you are only kinda ahead of his bluffing range, and you have such limited info about his frequencies in this spot. you'd need to have a much better idea of his tendencies to call this river in this spot. it's super tempting because wtf could he be valuebetting and omg draws missed, but still... it just can't work often enough. shoving is weird cos you rep nothing, but who knows if he's going to notice that or what.

wtf guys, shoving is insanely spewy. It needs to work 63% of the time and villain never ever folds a 5, meaning that he'd have to vbet sick thinly for it to be better than a call (which needs to work 29%). Also, anyone who vbets thinly enough for that to be true would just bet the turn with a lot of his 9X and a shove would still be inferior to a call.

Call is always better than shove in this spot. Question is whether or not it's better than folding.

I'm very shocked that most people think that he's value betting a 9 here... the only hand I can think of that he's value betting here the way the hand played out is like 45.

This. He could easily be bluffing with worse

I don't think we need to shove to make our bluff credible here. I think a very small river check raise say to 90-100 actually looks stronger, and most players will fold top pair and occasionally two pair/sets if they're not totally first level thinkers. That should make our bluff here much more +EV.

You can't CR small vs him.