Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Poker Stars
SB ($10.60)
BB ($51.29)
UTG ($12.18)
UTG+1 ($11.92)
CO ($10.71)
Hero ($10.56)

Dealt to Hero Q 9

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, fold, BB calls $0.15

FLOP ($0.55) Q 9 8

BB checks, Hero bets $0.35, BB calls $0.35

TURN ($1.25) Q 9 8 4

BB checks, Hero bets $0.90, BB raises to $2.70, Hero folds

BB wins $2.91

I'm calling turn. Folding is too tight.

Yes annoying spot but you have to call down really.

No you don't. Good fold.

Call
Not even annoying

Not a good reason to call...

Villain is very polarized in this spot. Especially since it's a LP v blinds spot. We call cos we still have equity versus all sets and the straight in his range. We will be IP on the river anyway so we can also react accordingly

With no reads I'm folding here, don't see him raising the turn with enough worse hands like AQ, Q8 or 98 even.

Calling turn is going to put you into guessing games on the river. Basically hoping to fill up or villain to give up on the river.

I think to warrant calling the turn we should have a read that villain can be somewhat out of line I.e seen him make semi bluffs with marginal SDV or some float like a gutter ball/overcards.

I feel making this fold makes you more money against the overal player pool at these stakes due to them playing more straightforward and passive. Yes if we fold this hand then our continuing range is very narrow and yes that can be heavily exploitable if villain realises this and is adjusting his postflop strategies accordingly. But the question is aware/capable of doing so?

If the answer boils down to...'I dont know much about him' then making the exploitable fold for the time being will fare better. If we encounter the situation again vs same villain we can start to adjust accordingly with more information.

lol because he can't have worst? obviously that's not my reasoning for calling, use your noggin.

he can xr worse for value and be bluffing with a bunch of GS's

Just looked like that was your reasoning.
Ima calling too

Calling here you have one of the Queens and 9s, 44 folds on the flop if set mining that low. When connecting with this flop i think his range is some what wide flatting a steal Qx, 89s, Gutshots, a set.

We have to be good here about 21% of the time:

8,89 vs. this range: 88-99,44,JTs,JTo
15,82 % vs. this range: 88-99,44,JTs,JTo 98s
and 26,80% if we add also 98o to his range

Since we don't know with what type of hands he's calling preflop and if UCs are in his range, I fold this.
Show me a NL10 Villain that c/r his gutshot on the turn oop after calling a flop cbet... you will need much time.

If u think anyone is raising GS's here then you are losing so so much money when you play poker. Standard line taken by people when they have a monster at these stakes.

They should raise some GS then. Not saying they will...

Why would villain suddenly raise blank turn here? He'd x/r 99 and 88 on that flop, and not wait for scary turn to come. Maybe he spiked a 4? My range on him is AQ, 98s/o, 44,KQ,QT,QJ,some 99 and some 88 still, in case he doesn't raise the flop. Which leaves us with 75% eq on that turn call.

Range nutted, paired and GS'd - 99-88,44,AQs,KQs,QTs+,98s,AQo,KQo,QTo+

yes.

Why on earth would villain check-raise KQ, QJ, QT here?

It's all GS/TP hands, it's not impossible, especially when the villain is unknown. 4 is complete blank, and it doesn't change anything. So why wouldn't he raise, especially when the river is next, and he didn't spike his T or whatever for GS, or he thinks we're barreling with GS, and he want's more value for his AQ or whatever. All I'm saying is, turn didn't change anything, and his c/r doesn't make any sense, because, if he's scared of a draw with 99 or 88, he's raising the flop.

As said, I don't expect him to raise GSs, neither that he overplays a TP hand.
If you think, that he only raises his sets on the flop, you are leveling yourself imo. Yes it's kind of the ideal gameplan to raise sets on the flop but I also see many players (also regs) raising turn with it.

You can find a fold. 20 combos of sets/straights that beat you - I don't count QQ which 3bets pre.

You're hoping for an overplayed AQ, or weaker two pairs Q8/98, which doesn't even total 20 combos (we hold blockers to that range), assuming AQ overplays here every time.

With the river still to come, you can't afford to call the turn.



Not enough unknowns decide to turn check-raise other unknowns with gutshots and the like to make a call profitable.

It may be your game plan to checkraise wet flops with sets, but it's not an unknown's game plan.

Yeah, sounds logical for sure, but I'm really leaning toward him overplaying his cards and counting too much on fold equity on the turn, rather then him hitting the nuts on the flop. All in all, I need to think more about this hand, maybe my opinion will change. We are here to learn after all.

Even if you count AQ as overplayed 100% of the time, villain still doesn't have worse hands in his range to justify a call. And lets face it, AQ type hands do not overplay 100% of the time.

Baluga theorem would not exist if every man and his mother raised gutshots on turns like that. At 10NL, to norm is to call hoping to get lucky.

If villain was even competent enough to think about fold equity, why wouldn't he raise you on the flop?
Why would he wait til you've shown interest with a second barrel (where your range is going to be stronger) to make a move on the pot?

I'm going from mine perspective sometimes (fish perspective in certain situations), where, I'm holding GS or TPGK, and it's cheaper to call flop, and "hope" for some card that improves my equity, and when blank turn comes, I say to myself, oh well, only chance I can win this pot now is by c/r or some miracle river, which I'm not getting for free, since he's betting. That's where fold equity comes on the turn in this case. I hope you understand what I'm talking about here.

As I said earlier, I really like this hand, and this discussion, so it'll keep me busy for some time.

p.s. It's not baluga here, we have 2p, and he could have worse 2p or same.