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KK vs bad run out KK vs bad run out

11-06-2014 , 07:17 PM
    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #32431772

    Villain has a very low FCB% (25%) but a high fold to FCBT(76%)
    The rest of the stats are the typical 22/17/5 over 256 hands.

    BTN: $5.97 (119.4 bb)
    SB: $5.10 (102 bb)
    BB: $4.41 (88.2 bb)
    UTG: $4.38 (87.6 bb)
    MP: $5.14 (102.8 bb)
    Hero (CO): $5.31 (106.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with K K
    2 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, BTN calls $0.20, SB folds, BB calls $0.15

    Flop: ($0.62) 8 T 3 (3 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.38, BTN calls $0.38, BB folds

    Turn: ($1.38) Q (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.70, BTN calls $0.70

    River: ($2.78) T (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $1.33, hero??




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    First hand back at 5NL, after a missed shot at 10NL where i lost 5 buyins, but anyway i'm happy with the i performed there since i had an EV of (6.5bb/100).

    Now the hand:
    Pre-flop i usually open 3x from the CO but since the majority of the players at these stakes decide if they call or not withou having the size of the raise in consideration i decided to put a bit more of money in the pot with KK.
    Standard bet on the flop. When he calls me here givens his Fold to cbet stats i put him on a very wide range.
    If his FCB and FCBT where more 'normal' i would assume his range here would be very heavy on things like AT or FD.
    Given that he gets to the river with a very weak range often i decided to fire a second barrel, when he calls me i basically put him on a made hand, like a pair of T, 2P, or a flush, do you think this is accurate?
    If he was a unknown would you fire a second barrel anyways?
    On the river the Tc is one of the worst cards because now we can't even beat something like AT. Do you think that this is a call? I know we only need about 24% equity, but i don't know if he is bluffing were with something like AQ, wich is basically the only thing we beat here.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-06-2014 , 08:37 PM
    fold river as played
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-06-2014 , 09:14 PM
    Fold. This isn't a bluff spot and we don't beat any of his value hands here. Villian is going to want to check back a ton of hands here. The only hands villian should be betting here are flushes, straights, full houses, and trips.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 12:18 AM
    Less pre, more turn, b/f river. You can still get value from AhQx, JJ , maybe a stubborn 9h9x lol. Given the board texture and your blockers they are few credible flushes in his range.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 03:00 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Kiwi_Shredder
    Less pre, more turn, b/f river.
    ^
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 06:06 AM
    As above, I'd be better bigger flop as well
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 09:05 AM
    b/f river is really optimistic. It's not like you're getting called by 99 or A8. So it's QJ (probably), Q9s and a bunch of trips and flushes. No way we have 50% against that.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 09:10 AM
    I think i agree with betting bigger on the flop, but i don't really think betting bigger on this turn is better, because it hits a lot of his range. I don't even know if i would fire on the turn again vs a unknown, would you do it?
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 10:09 AM
    Quote:
    Pre-flop i usually open 3x from the CO but since the majority of the players at these stakes decide if they call or not withou having the size of the raise in consideration i decided to put a bit more of money in the pot with KK.
    Keep your open sizing balanced pre. I like your line though, I think otr the EV is close between x/f, b/f probably leaning towards b/f but should be largely villian dependant.

    As for bet sizing I would go a bit bigger otf like 0.42ish, AP turn 1.00
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 05:55 PM
    What do you think betting larger on the Turn acomplishes?
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 07:59 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by LikeItGreen
    What do you think betting larger on the Turn acomplishes?
    As played, turn lets him see river too cheaply with his draws.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-07-2014 , 11:52 PM
    Board is uber wet, we want to charge straight (and possibly flush) draws ott. We still have a legit medium strength hand. If you were playing a set here I suspect you would bomb it, in which case a thinking villain will easily be able to narrow your turning betting range etc.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 06:26 AM
    Thanks a lot for your toughts, i ended up folding the river.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 08:51 AM
    I don't like bet fold river, there are still a lot of missed draws villain could bluff with here, e.g. 1 card flush and straight draws like Ah9s. Check/call is fine. You'll win enough of the time to make calling a 1/2 pot bet here profitable.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 09:11 AM
    Everything got there on the turn. And now Tx beats you on the river.

    Hard to think of many bluffs villain can have on the river.

    It's pretty hard for villain to have Ah9x as suggested above. He would have to call pre (bad), float the flop multi-way (also bad) and then decide to bluff the river. This is pretty optimistic. And I mean villain can have tons of value combos... J9, sets, flushes, Tx...

    b/f and c/c are just burning money when villain's range is so strong, so it's an easy c/f.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 11:53 AM
    bet river yourself. T is a good card for you
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 12:13 PM
    Give me a some ranges for villain that would make betting good. Maybe an overall river range, a calling range, and a raising range, or just one of these. I can't see realistic ranges for villain that would make betting +EV. Haven't done any analysis, just going off intuition.

    Also, explain how the T is a good card.
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 12:14 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by timidcynic
    Everything got there on the turn. And now Tx beats you on the river.

    Hard to think of many bluffs villain can have on the river.

    It's pretty hard for villain to have Ah9x as suggested above. He would have to call pre (bad), float the flop multi-way (also bad) and then decide to bluff the river. This is pretty optimistic. And I mean villain can have tons of value combos... J9, sets, flushes, Tx...

    b/f and c/c are just burning money when villain's range is so strong, so it's an easy c/f.
    Agree with you that's why i c/f on the river
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 12:15 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by K40cheddar
    bet river yourself. T is a good card for you
    How can a T be a good card?
    KK vs bad run out Quote
    11-08-2014 , 12:29 PM
    I like the bigger sizing pre. I think OP described it well as to why he did it and that's a reason I would use to open bigger. Shoot, I've opened to 10x pre before because I knew a particular would call. And if we know he is going to call, why not make it bigger? Plus, is anyone at 5nl really going to exploit us with it?

    I would bet larger on the flop though. Draw heavy board that smacks a lot of calling ranges. I think I'm betting the turn as well just because we now have overpair and second nfd, but just be weary that the turn is better for him than it is for us. The T river is a bad card for us. It takes away his QT hands but adds more to his JT T9 AT (with a heart) range, if that makes sense. I'd probably check/call a half psb, but fold to larger bets. So here I'd sigh call.
    KK vs bad run out Quote

          
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