*******HU CASH Regs thread******* - Page 1449 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

Another quick Q: if my River Call Efficiency in $$ over one year equals to 75% of my yearly overall profit, can I extract any information from this? Maybe find some leak in some area, that i could easily track given these two variables?
Also, my Riv call Eff is 1.21 and riv Call Win % is 30.7%, if it might help for analysis.
Thanks in advance.

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02-11-2011 , 04:37 AM

#36202

Krumb Snatcha

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,051

Quote:

Originally Posted by PureDiesel

I was wondering, how every1 sais it's not profitable to defend 22-88 to 3bet vs some 3b%ages or some degrees of villain's passiveness/agressiveness.
I've been never folding it preflop, either flat or 4bet, and i'm running 38bb/100 over 300k hands sample. Am i realy just running hot? Goingtrough my hands, i don't see that i'm getting more sets then i suppose to, and villains have around fair share of strong/weak hands, so i can't spot myself, if it's about luck or not.
I flat it vs any1, doesn't matter if he 3bets 5% or 35%m doesn't matter if he is passive or lose, if he's goot or bad. Obv I'm not just set mining, I'm always trying to look for spots to take it away or end up making hero calls.
So i really wanna know, if I'm just running hot or doing stuff correctly.

Oh, and my EV adj in these spots is 92bb/100 ( so EV wise i'm running really poorly)
Also, i don't win at NSD in this scenarios overall, my profit is from SD, while all my game otherwise is completely backwards (winning majorly by NSD lifetime).

You could possibly argue folding small pairs(22-44) vs a 10-15% 3-bet range, but I don't think it is a big leak if you are folding or calling in this situation.

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02-11-2011 , 08:43 AM

#36203

ivvaen

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,068

Quote:

Originally Posted by PureDiesel

So i really wanna know, if I'm just running hot or doing stuff correctly.

youre taking one simple scenario and trying to completely justify your winrate with it. there is more to your winrate than your reactions to 3bets when you have 22-88. just because you always call or 4bet and have a positive winrate doesnt mean that this is profitable. maybe if you reacted differently youd have a higher winrate. get it?

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02-11-2011 , 08:46 AM

#36204

ivvaen

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,068

Quote:

Originally Posted by jakedamus

Who in here gets the black card cash bonuses? Was going to get the $500 one.. If i get rakeback does this affect clearing the bonus in anyway?

(this is probably a dumb question but i thought i read something about this some where thought id ask before i got it...)

i got the $1k bonus earlier. you take an mgr hit as you clear your bonus, so you rakeback will be noticeably lower. im fairly certain that if you buy and clear the $500 bonus you will lose out on $500*0.27 = $135 in rakeback.

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02-11-2011 , 08:47 AM

#36205

PureDiesel

Raw Power

Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 4,930

Ivvaen, reread my post more carefully. Obviously, i'm not talking about overall bb/100.

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02-11-2011 , 08:52 AM

#36206

thin fold

adept

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,005

its not about the 3betting frequency, its about the postflop play in 3b pots, if the villain is barrely that it is surely not +EV to call those little pp, most of the villains play fit or fold after flop mostly (in 3b pots), so surely 22-88 can be played with a big + mark, I always flat them but I know I lack adjusting against barrelhappy villains.
if you are a good handreader and understand the board textures well I see no reason why 22-88 cant be played out really good.

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02-11-2011 , 08:53 AM

#36207

jakedamus

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,992

Quote:

Originally Posted by ivvaen

Yeh thanks for explaining it... that sucks but i think its still probably the best thing for me anyway because most of good stuff in black card store dont get mailed out to australia.

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02-11-2011 , 09:23 AM

#36208

Laurenz

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 2,369

Does anybody have any PTR premium promo codes?

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02-11-2011 , 11:58 AM

#36209

Jekus

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,390

as usual good start of the month

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02-11-2011 , 12:36 PM

#36210

BreakYaNeck

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 8,187

I have $211 on cake
Want 211 on Stars/ftp/ub

edit: Got it done. TC did it for me. Thanks

Last edited by BreakYaNeck; 02-11-2011 at 12:57 PM.

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02-11-2011 , 12:55 PM

#36211

Barewire

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,724

Quote:

Originally Posted by PureDiesel

I don't mean to take the easy way out but your sample is definitely not big enough to draw any conclusions. I mean yeah you've played 300k hands but your sample of 22-88 facing a 3bet is what, like 1-2k hands? Combine that with the fact that you're basically finding that your sample has an expected ev of less than 1 stack per 100 pairs in 3bet pots, so if you picked up like 15 sets instead of the true average of 13 or stacked him like 7 times instead of 5 (guessing at the true avg) all of a sudden you have that big positive result.

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02-11-2011 , 01:29 PM

#36212

fattony7891

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 6,158

How long does it take for you guys to decide to start 4b/shoving Ax to a super aggro fish. Like lets say hes 3bing 40% over 50 hadns, lets say thats 4 times he has 3b. We are 100bb deep, hes 3bing to 11, his calling range is like AT+, 77+. Next time he 3bs is that enough evidence for you guys to 4b shove?

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02-11-2011 , 01:48 PM

#36213

muttiah

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 25,083

just 4bet small with many hands

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02-11-2011 , 01:57 PM

#36214

Barewire

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,724

if hes only calling with AT+/77+ that means he's folding like 70-80% to your 4bet jam (that range is 8.4% of all hands, he could be 3betting smth like 30-45%), meaning ur making 70-80% of $14 and winning 20-30% of $200*equity against AT+,77+ and then subtract $97

dont feel like working further tho im bored

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02-11-2011 , 02:08 PM

#36215

fattony7891

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 6,158

Quote:

Originally Posted by Isura

just 4bet small with many hands

Yea I do that as well for the first few 4bs, but with hands that are at least somewhat playable. Cos most aggro fish are gonna be calling my 4bs and Axo is just so horrible to play postflop and if hes truly 3bing that much then shoving is surely +EV. But my main question is below.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barewire

Well its not the math as such that I'm worried about. Im just wondering can we trust a sample of 50 hands where villain has 3b 4 times? HEM says his 3b is 40% if that is the case but maybe he just picked up some good hands. Is starting to jam Ax with just that info, a little premature?

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02-11-2011 , 03:19 PM

#36216

Barewire

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Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,724

well if you want to know how much you can trust your sample size you can treat is as a binomial and do some statistical analysis and ****

maybe i'll write up a chart sometime that would show you over what sample you can be x% sure that villain is 3betting > a variety of points of interest

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02-11-2011 , 03:32 PM

#36217

fattony7891

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 6,158

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barewire

Lol dude I dont even know what that is, but yea that chart would be intersting in incredibly helpful. It wud be great, if you ever had some free time to write it out.

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02-11-2011 , 04:55 PM

#36218

ShipItMehr

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 3,669

So many hit and run scum in the day time today

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02-11-2011 , 06:45 PM

#36219

PaperWalls

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 2,213

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShipItMehr

So many hit and run scum in the day time today

Its like that every day in the mornings.

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02-11-2011 , 08:52 PM

#36220

mused01

banned

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 4,215

Poker Stars $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 2 players - View hand 1171987
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): $240.00
BTN/SB: $150.00

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is BB with J

BTN/SB raises to $18, Hero calls $12

Flop: ($36.00) 8

(2 players)
Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

Turn: ($36.00) T

(2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN/SB raises to $78, Hero raises to $126, BTN/SB calls $48

River: ($288.00) 3

(2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN/SB folds

This really just happened

He had $6 left in the end

Last edited by mused01; 02-11-2011 at 08:58 PM.

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02-11-2011 , 09:06 PM

#36221

BreakYaNeck

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 8,187

i posted a hand a while back where the guy folded for like 65 cents more with like 400 in the pot

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02-11-2011 , 09:11 PM

#36222

mused01

banned

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 4,215

Quote:

Originally Posted by BreakYaNeck

i posted a hand a while back where the guy folded for like 65 cents more with like 400 in the pot

what are you, the guy that tries to top everyone's story?

Spoiler:

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02-11-2011 , 09:16 PM

#36223

mused01

banned

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 4,215

Question: When I filter out for "Flat BB" and go to hand groupings, my biggest loser is "non suited aces". I'm losing a little more than $1/hand. However, I'm playing 1/2-3/6 so technically I'm losing less than I would have if I were to have folded them so I should keeping playing them?