Did I read his AF right!?

With a 0.2 AF he is checking just about every hand here letting us see a free turn. We could easily get to check this down if we do in fact have the best hand with A high. If he is more aggro and you think a c/f will really mean c/f then I can get behind betting more as that is our only chance at the pot. Here though its more like 'c/see the turn card'. I would check and be hopeful of winning the pot without needing to bet (unless we spike a A/J obviously).

Read the spoiler on page one. Hero check/folded actual hand. Turn came A. River came J.

Someone is arguing against Hero because of results oriented thinking.

If you believe that, that's fine. But atleast take the time to respond to my points please.

I am. It's still very rare for someone to call flop then not bluff river with a missed draw after turn and river check. I mean if you've seen him give up with missed draws multiple times I guess it's different, but I think the general read in this spot is just too strong to ignore.

I've responded, we even spent an hour calculating calling ranges vs one villain and I conceded that it may be marginally profitable vs one villain but it will never be vs two calling stations.

To summarize;
- Vs two calling stations, we are called in one spot the majority of the time. (75%)
- Yes, we beat the air portion of their calling range which is about 1/3 of BTNs range and more roughly 1/2 of BB's range.
- BB isn't a complete station post flop like BTN is. He certainly is capable of floating and betting the turn with his air hands.
- Even though we beat the air portion of their range, it wont matter because our chance of getting to SD OOP is very unlikely in a multi-way pot.

And there was more. Save your logs or something.

Are you saying ICMoney only posted to double/triple barrel after reading the results or are you accusing me of not reading before posting?

I added that bit at the end about BB (not BTN) to try and make a point of saying that there's no reason you should be running 2/3 barrel bluffs vs a half stack super station because you're going to be called down really light.

Sorry, your first post looked like you missed the stats.

While I agree 100% that a check/fold is in order, I don't agree that our villain on the button will ever bluff. Over an hour session, a .02 AF is strong enough that we can ignore the general read.

I'm accusing you of not reading before posting your rant about putting this hand in the BBV because I ran a 3 street bluff and got called down by T6o. Which is far from the case. That was an unnecessary rant.

I'm talking about in the thread, not on IM.
And all you did was summarise your points, not respond to mine...

Unlikely being OOP in a multi-way pot that he will try anything too fancy; especially given his stats I can't think he's a deep thinking player.

We also beat busted draws. That's why you cbet to fold out the BB, making it not multi-way; that combined with the villains 0.2 AF makes it significantly more likely we see a cheap showdown.

Not enough hands IMO. You'd be surprised what some of these players are raising with (or becoming aggro with) when they do decide to bet/raise.

I can't even count the number of times where I'll have 118 hands on a guy similar to your villain then he'll finally raise PF for the first time. The hand goes to showdown and he has J9s with air or some completely oddball hand like 83o.

This is a villain type that's in a class of his own but they are kind of common at uNL.

I don't follow the logic that "we're vs two calling stations, so we can get to showdown with Ace high easily. I'm going to bet now."

Sure you beat the air portion of their range but the majority of BTN's calling range, especially, is not air and has us beat to 6 outs.

I've seen these exceptions too. But we can't seriously expect him to do it any hand and plan our play around it. If he over shoves the river, we're still going to give him credit for a hand the first time around. Or are you advocating a hero call anytime he makes a big play?

And, this is really off topic. The point is - I like a check/fold line. A person railing me really really liked a bet/fold, check/fold line. You're only giving reasons for a check/fold which is fine. No reason straying from the hand towards general reads on a mindless villain who is nothing but an ATM to us.

We're against ONE calling station, who is very very passive - so we cbet bluff, which at best wins the pot and hopefully at worst we're isolating the station when the BB folds; allowing us to see a cheap showdown.
Simple enough?

In other words; Get BB out of the hand.

Also, you said yourself BTN is a calling station; yet the majority of his calling range has us beat? Self-contradicting statements. Either that or he's running real hot...

And this strategy becomes +EV?

combined with Fold Equity + 25% Equity, yes. As to reasoning, see above.

PGNX kaos wasn't really targeting you in any of his posts, but since everyone is ignoring you I'll take a second:

In order for the cbet to be profitable in the first place you need to have some idea of whether or not it will work (percentage-wise). Since it appears that we don't have a reliable sample to determine what the villain's actual fold-to-cbet stats are (and we would have to take both into account), I took into account a few other factors that can influence the decision:

- We are against 2 villains, not one, so by definition the chance someone hit something is greater
- Both villain's stats edge towards those of a calling station (calls down light with any pair/gutshot/etc)
- The board does not hit our range much at all so our bet isn't going to get any credit, and a hand like 44 is going to think its good a lot of the time
- The board is wet so the chances of a villain calling with a draw are greater

To be clear, it is not our goal to make a bet against a draw here oop even if we are temporarily ahead on the flop with A-high. Consider what we would have to do to get to showdown against a drawing hand and win: we would have to triple barrel (most likely, unless villain is willing to fold a gutshot outright or on the turn), villain would have to not hit his draw, and villain would have to actually have a draw and not an otherwise weak-but-showdownable hand (like 88 or T9o).

Assuming one of these villains has a weak pair here and they check the turn and we check back what have we accomplished? How does our equity double to 25%?

We have no stats to indicate what % of the time they will actually fold, and I would wager against two villains that have position on us its a lot smaller than you think

Ok lets take your example, lets say one villain has KQ for two live overcards and one has 75s for no pair no draw and isn't planning on putting another cent in the pot even if he hits a pair. So if we check here the villain with KQ has 6 outs to beat us. That is not enough incentive for me to bet when my FE looks bad and I'm oop. These are isolated circumstances and do not have enough of an affect on the EV of cbetting here to really be taken into consideration.

You are talking about meta-game, and this isn't really a spot to worry about our image. Especially since its 10NL and we aren't likely to play with these villain's ever again.

Good post Gateswi.

I think you can safely take into account that my image right now was 30/23. 3bet of 11% and AF of ~3. With my strategy, I don't need to be running multiple street bluffs OOP. And, as I said earlier, check/folding would be the best play for my image because they will remember it and think "Oh, he folded that time. He must be getting aces every time he bets." Obviously not that extreme, but they will remember the unexpected.

Fold for sure I think. Which means you just double/tripled a decent (or ton) of your stack vs a station OOP with A high.

If the flop checks through and BB checks whatever turn I don't mind betting most turns because it just seems like no one is interested in the pot and we might take it down. A lot of turns will give them possible draws too.

This way we can still win the pot (sometimes) without risking much, and for the most part not worry about the pot getting huge because it's not worth fighting tooth and nail over on the river (ie. it'll probably go check/check(/check) when everyone has air or a really weak hand).

This maximizes value when we're ahead and minimizes losses when we're behind (if they bet the river after calling the turn we're behind like 99% of the time I think).

I'd also like to add that I think c-betting this flop is a result of 'having to win every pot' syndrome'. Sure we could double barrel a lot of turns profitably but we are against two calling station fish, why in the world would we need to take a double/triple barrel line with air here? Its just unnecessary and I like kaos point that not betting here is just fine for our image.

Value from calling stations comes from value-betting

Also adding if the button bets we can be fairly certain he has a hand better than A high so were not even getting 'bluffed' off the best hand if he bets and we fold.

Thanks for taking the time to respond, and I was the person that Kaos has been referencing that disagreed with him btw.

The board with the exception of the ten is pretty unlikely to have hit either Villain in my opinion, although I understand that since there are two of them, it's more likely.

If we can fold out the BB which is a very big possibility; especially being OOP, we likely wouldn't require any more bets to see showdown given the button's agression factor so it's not like we'd be triple-barrelling with A-high here.
With the 40/0/0.2's style being so polarized, we will be sure to know if he hit his draw or not judging by whether he shows agression or not; which is evidently very rare for him.

My understanding was that we have a 12% chance of hitting our overcard on the turn, and 12% again on the river. Given the likeliness of a check-check turn assuming we can isolate the 40/0, in reality that 12% is looking more like 25%

That is true, but betting 2/3's of the pot to take it down isn't going to require a MASSIVE success rate and even when it doesn't work we still haev ways to win the pot.

You're forgetting to count the 75's 6 outs. Regardless of whether or not he's willing to put more money in the pot, if a 7, 5, K or Q comes that's going to make us lose. That means even with four missed cards, we're still only 50% to win. By folding out one player, we're significantly decreasing our chance of getting out-drawn (This is all assuming we're not already beat of course)

Point noted although even during the same session your image can affect how lightly you can stack someone off - it doesn't necessarily need to be in the future at some point.

There's been a lot of talk about double or triple barrelling with A-high.
That wouldn't be my plan.

A) Preflop raise is fine
B) Cbet to
- Potentially win the pot
- Protect your hand (fold out hands like KQ, 75 which combined are about 50% against your hand)
- Get value from busted draws (Assuming you can see a cheap showdown - explained later)
- Isolate the 40/0/0.2
- Get information

When we cbet, we respond accordingly:

- We get Raised -
We fold flop

- Both players call -
We proceed cautiously, or if we spike an A or J we fire another barrell

- BB folds, BTN (40/0/0.2) calls
We check turn. It's unlikely this will result in a check-fold given his agression factor. He's likely to check back almost all of the time.

If he shows agression, we can be sure we're beat

- Turn w/ BTN goes check-check -
Unless river pairs us, we check-check river or if he bets, we're still going to be fairly certain he actually has a made hand and we fold. Evidently he's not the kind of player that's going to make moves.


As you can see, given BTN's playing style, being OOP isn't as big a disadvantage as it initially seems I believe, as there's not really going to be many tough decisions that will come up. For the most part, he will only show agression with a made hand.

throwing out some numbers

HEM filtered for pfr, exactly 3 on flop, cbet, flop was raised=false, hand value=high card
363 times (won 59%)
saw turn=false, won hand=true
159 times

363/159 = 43.8% (also got similar % with high card part removed)

saw turn=true
160 times (won 35%)

seems close, what numbers are you guys getting?

I make lots of long posts in other threads.

I haven't play uNL in years and I'm doing you a favor by posting here.

If you're not a fan - put me on ignore and you won't have to read my posts anymore.

You would only be doing me a favor by making informed posts or (preferably) not posting at all.

Don't worry about me posting in any more of your threads.

I was being kinda cute with the metagame comment and I guess I should have put it in quotes to make it clear or have put a nice little winking smile. At 10NL so much of my winnings come from when these half stackers and donks see me splashing around and don't want to give me credit. I mean it is so easy I almost feel guilty...

Should i put guilty in quotes?