Villain in BTN is 40/0/.02. Fold to cbet 50%.
BB is 28/12/2

Full Tilt Poker $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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BTN: $12.80
Hero (SB): $10.20
BB: $5.00
UTG: $4.35
CO: $7.83

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with A J
2 folds, BTN calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, BB calls $0.40, BTN calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.50) T 3 4 (3 players)

I'm in a disagreement with someone here. Should hero cbet? Please try to settle this, he needs convincing.

c/f imo

But why!? We can cbet 1$ and they only need to fold like 40% of the time?

multiway, semi-wet, doesn't hit our range, 2 calling stations, only equity is 2 overs (not gutter, BD flush, etc), etc.

Edit: fold to cbet stats are really important (probably more than anything) to factor in to this decision.

Pretty easy check/fold I think. The board is low/raggy, there's a flush draw, we only beat most air hands, BB only has half a stack, and there's 2 villains. 1 of which doesn't fold much and the other has a range of hands that probably won't fold to a flop bet and might call 2 barrels.

Yeah sorry man, I wanna help you out with your friend but.. c/f for sure

We beat ALL of the air hands. When called, we are ahead of their range most of the time.....

Edit;

Okay so I'm the one that disagree's that c/f is bad here.
I'm fully willing to accept that I may be wrong, that's cool. Here's my logic

A) It's a relatively easy holding to play given the circumstances
- By this I mean, we can cbet the flop and if we get no callers, we take it down. If we get either one or two callers, we'll check the turn, hope to spike an A or J, or to a lesser extent a gutshot, and proceed cautiously or if they're short, stack them.

B) A large % of his calling range, we beat
- Any two hearts, any two cards drawing to the straight and basically any overcards (I believe anything better than AJo would've 3bet pre. MAYBE AQ wouldn't have though)

C) When they do call and have us beat, If it's with 3x or 4x or 22-99 they're most likely going to check back the turn which doubles our equity to 25%

D) A large % of the time, the cbet will cause them to fold

E) By betting flop, we're folding out hands that could hit the turn and beat us. If we check,it gets checked around a Q comes and someone shows strength, it's likely we could've folded that out on the flop.

And then a few other things could be made of this hand that may be an advantage, regarding table image etc.


Please, help me learn! Why am I wrong here?

lol I agree results oriented

I think I saved a stack . Looks like a set. Or AT. And I feel like a set is more likely.

CB - lots of good cards to double/triple barrel.

I'd cb heads up here I think because this is a good point. Multi-way though and against 2 stations I think this is going to lead to spew.

I was telling him that heads up OOP vs either of these villains, I won't even cbet because there are only 6(possibly 4 cards) that we want to double barrel. TBH, if you're double barrel bluffing a 40/0 .02, then I think you need to take a close look at your game.

What about cbetting, then check/folding turn assuming we dont hit?
Also, what do you think of my points above?

If I was up against the 28/12 I would double any A, K, Q, or J, that's 12 cards.

I can agree with checking but not as much as many are indicating.

I have absolutely no problem cbetting this and it has nothing to do with whether I think it is absolutely the right play every time. In a vacuum it is not. But I like to be seen as stabbing at pots so that when I do connect they will call me down lighter and make some key mistakes. And I think I can win enough either with a cbet or double barrel to make it plenty profitable when you include the improved profits from the other hands. Metagame.

All that said, I will check here a decent amount depending on game flow. Suited J and T flops I check way the majority of the time.

There are probably ways to cbet this profitably as part of a multi-street plan. But cbet and shut down if called is just burning money.

If I had position on the 28/12, I would cbet and double A K Q J also. Out of position, I won't double barrel bluff raggy flops vs anything but a reg who can fold. And I wont do it often. (This is 10NL, ffs)

And in regards to the 'metagame' post that Brian J made. I don't need to be seen stabbing at pots. I need to be seen giving up. That way they think that I only stab with good hands and I'm just getting lucky when I bet. That is, even if they are thinking past level 0.

I'm stabbing at every pot, 3betting double digit %, at 30/23 and running with a high aggression factor... I don't need the metagame beyond that.

And LOL @ metagame at 10NL.

The 28/12 or whatever he was is unlikely to call with air when there's another person left to act. If he calls, we can assume at this stage our hand is no good.
The 40/0/0.2 is likely to call with air, any draw aswell as a good hand. Due to his insanely passive agression factor, we can be sure that if he raises flop or bets turn after we check, he HAS a hand. Another advantage is that since he's so passive, he's likely to check back and let us see a showdown with a hand that does have SOME showdown value against busted draws.

We have a clear plan on how to play this hand, and we know we may double barrel a good turn bluff card into the 28/12 if the calling station is out of the hand. If the 28/12 folds, we know we can see a cheap showdown. If we spike an A or J, we can probably stack off with the calling station and be good almost always.
If both call, we can be done with the hand
If we get raised on flop, we can be done with the hand
If calling station shows any agression, we can be done with the hand.

This is what I meant when I said this hand is relatively easy to play.

You can barrel over half the deck on turn/river fwiw.

What are your thoughts in regards to my posts?

Read OP. Two calling stations. Still barreling?

I'm not a fan of your posts if you make one liners that don't half explain why it's profitable to run multi street bluffs vs villains that are calling us down light.

Button is still going to bluff a fair amount when we check twice. I think BB rarely calls because of stack sizes: if he wants to play his middle pair or QTs or whatever he's just going to stick it in for a PSB.

Button hasn't made a bet in the session. Yet he's been in 40% of hands. Are you paying attention to reads, please do =P.

Can you explain which cards and why?

I don't know if there's really that many good cards to double/triple. Ignoring BB for now, BTN's range is mostly wiffed overs, fds, small PPs.

Low bricks are bad because it improves his small pairs. Giving him gutshots, oesds, and maybe fds to go with it. A 2nd barrel probably isn't going to get him to fold. It's also going to make him want to call more with the upper range of his small PPs.

3 to a flush cards are bad because if he has the Ah he's probably going to call a 2nd barrel. Depending on the actual card this might improve his equity by a decent amount (but we're still ahead). It could also make him a flush.

High cards don't seem that great because it hits his 2 pairs, gives him decent (possibly very good turn equity) with oesds, T+combo draws, etc..

We don't know what he's capable of doing on the river. He doesn't seem like a true station so maybe he's capable of bluffing the river. He might turn 88 into a bluff and just shove after checking the turn behind. We can't really call if he shoves a 3 to a flush river too.

BB's stack is also lame. We have to cbet+put him in on the turn. He's so passive postflop that his range is for the most part so wide that it's pointless to guess what it is. Why try to bluff him and force a station a fold some made hand for 50bbs when you could easily have AT in this spot next time and have a very strong chance of stacking him?

This seems like a hand where you could put BB in on the turn (on whatever turn card that doesn't hit us) and then post a thread in BBV because he called with T6o and cry about how "fish" at NL10 are unbeatable, or maybe he called the flop with K9o and spiked a 9 on the turn and stacked off, etc..