PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

Villain is unknown. Weird line being x/r twice in this spot I would like your opinion on
a) villain's hand range
b) just shove turn or call and let v barrel?

My thoughts on this hand so far: flop standard cbet and flat as villain is really not repping much and the board is super dry. Except for TT and 66 and maybe the occasional 45s I don't see any hand that beats me an that would improve ott. Turn is not a great card but yeah when v checks here I expect him to give up 90% of the time but I still bet to get value from worse. Now v x/r again and this time big. So I am pretty confused... Probably should just click it back ai! (?)

BTN: 118.9 BB (VPIP: 18.42, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 6.45, Hands: 77)
SB: 186 BB
BB: 145 BB (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
Hero (UTG): 106.9 BB
MP: 102 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
CO: 103.5 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 5.56, Hands: 55)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 3

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 6 T 3
SB checks, Hero bets 3.6 BB, SB raises to 7.2 BB, Hero calls 3.6 BB

Turn: (21.4 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets 11 BB, SB raises to 53 BB, Hero?

Very interesting spot. I would think he is putting you on {AA-JJ,AT} and is trying to get value. But then, what hand can he have that is trying to get value from these? Only TT and 66. On the other hand, I've noticed some villains play this way with KK-QQ vs UTG. Rather than getting it in preflop they like to play super aggro on any runout that doesn't have an overcard. But only some play this way, so maybe just putting QQ in the range is some kind of way to analyze this. So vs {QQ, sets} you are roughly 50%. I think you gotta call/shove (probably doesn't matter which because it's all going in on the river anyway) but this is a spot where folding a set seems reasonable at least.

Maybe a check back on the turn was better...

I d just shove turn, he probably has some kind of draw at this point. I dont know what his range is he is ******ed and we dont want to overcomplicate things against him.

It's an awkward situation, but I don't really see how we're doing anything other then shoving back here. Unfortunately we'll pay off to 66,TT here occasionally but there is way more combinations of TPTK, Overpairs, semi-bluff draws than stronger sets.

Shove vs look for River bet? I just shove to make sure the draws pay in full. The remaining stack size vs pot size when we get to the river would make baiting a last ditch bluff unlikely.

Interesting hand here. I think his range OTT here is TT, 66, sometimes 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, maybe QQ-KK but really unlikely, and also 44. He represents 2pair+/a strong draw. I don't see any 2pair combos that make sense here.
For me he is more likely to have a made hand, including 44 (i've seen weak players min c/r small pairs that didn't hit a set).
Against this range you have 57%. But calling is the worst play imo. You will have a tough decision river.
I really think he has a better set in that spot, considering the huge raise turn so I'll just fold here. Shoving is really high variance, and is only good if he calls with QQ-KK and combo draws.

His X/r turn is so strong, a bluff is just never played this way. We beat nothing here, a rare spot to fold a set imo

Check back turn really? Never.

You'd rather b/f? So tell me, what are you getting value from with the bet?

You'll lose value by not betting turn. He'll call this bet with JJ+ no matter what, and maybe with some AT (provided Villain c/r flop with TpTk), and also some gutshots+fds.
His check turn looks like a c/c most of the time. He's never folding here imo. So just bet, he won't raise a lot of the time, and when he calls we can be confident we are ahead.

What combo ever x/r flop and then x/c turn - I know that I bet to get calls from worse ott but as I said in my initial post: I expect tons of one and done bluff spots here when v x turn...

As turned out villain seems to be a pretty bad player so maybe this widens the range of possible hands

Also: I would never x/b turn and probably never fold readless

I'd be hard pressed to find any random villain in this player pool to take this line with AT or JJ+ (slow played pre).

However, if he is a single tabling Russian with a goofy avatar yeah just gii.

I see x/r flop, x/c turn from all sorts of draws or badly played Tx kind of hands, so I don't think checking back the turn is really good. x/r twice is something I rarely see. My guess is they do that "find out where I'm at" thing, and then can't fold top pair anyway.

I don't see myself folding a set to some random 10nl player here.

If flop was two tone - this would be an easy rip.

Also BDFD x/r bluffs happen infrequently at NL10.

Yeah, I'm not happy about this spot, but I tend to feel like if I start folding sets readless to these spewy looking lines then that's the way to madness.

GG if he set over sets me and wins a stack.

Yeah in practice, I don't think we can ever get away from this @ 100bb.

Unless we have like 2k+ hands and villain is 15/10 with minimal aggression, low barreling frequencies and high WTSD/W$SD, low WWSF.

Pretty much. It's not like villains can exploit me for not folding sets on dry boards.

Possibly worth noting that 78 is now a double gutter.

Has to be this imo

ATss makes some sense. Agree being X/r twice barely ever happens. Turn could be button clicking and overplaying top pair type hands. He min raises flop but changes the sizing OTT.

Results soon OP?

ATss does not make any sense

cmon now

Folding turn (population reads/experience).

Well not real sense, I'm trying to get into the mind of villain.

I initially and still stick with folding turn.

I personally would get this in, against a random fish at nl10 I wouldn't be surprised to see AT or any overpair. His turn size could make sets more unlikely, but meh.

6 combos of sets and 8 combos of straights that beat you. Even if villain's doing this with just AT you're nearly breaking even, not taking into consideration random spazzes and the general nature of nl10. Just my opinion though.

surprised nobody mentioned 106s yet. As played, you gotta ship the turn. This villain could be completely over playing overpairs or 10A bc that turn is actually very scary to a lot of fish. They are always afraid of drawy boards and like to push people out of the pot when they think they have the best hand bc they don't want the villain to draw out on them.

You just never know about 10NL and a set is top of your range so GII. If you have JJ or some random 10x then you could fold the turn but not a set. you still have outs to boat up if you see a straight and if it's an overset, well go smash a mug and then get back to playing poker

You fold JJ but not bottom set?

that makes no sense

they have the same strength here