Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($13.01) [VPIP: 18.5% | PFR: 14.7% | AGG: 22.2% | Hands: 535]
SB ($13.23) [VPIP: 26.4% | PFR: 20.9% | AGG: 37.3% | Hands: 154]
HERO ($32.02) [VPIP: 19.6% | PFR: 16.2% | AGG: 22.6% | Flop Agg: 21.8% | Turn Agg: 21.4% | River Agg: 26.2% | 3-Bet: 8% | 4-Bet: 8.4% | Cold Call: 7.9% | Hands: 37077]
UTG ($18.43) [VPIP: 22.3% | PFR: 18.1% | AGG: 47.9% | Flop Agg: 57.1% | Turn Agg: 40% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3-Bet: 12.5% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 168]
HJ ($22.53) [VPIP: 21.1% | PFR: 15.1% | AGG: 45.4% | Hands: 332]
CO ($5.88) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 23.8% | AGG: 11.1% | Hands: 21]

Dealt to Hero: K Q

UTG Raises To $0.22, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, HERO Calls $0.12

Hero SPR on Flop: [37.16 effective]
Flop ($0.49): Q 5 4
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $17.85), HERO Calls $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $31.44)

Turn ($1.21): Q 5 4 A
HERO Checks, UTG Bets $2.41 (Rem. Stack: $15.44), Hero ?

Villain is good aggressive regular

At the time I figured v pretty much just has 55/44 and some QQ at the top, he might choose to overbet A4 though. Didn't think AK or worse was super likely

Do I have enough Ax that I can fold KQ at equilibrium? Should I just call with a flush blocker?

Probably close to 0ev at equilibrium so wouldn't matter much. You can fold quite often vs 2x pot.

All AX are likely calls though. I'd likely default to a fold vs. a player playing 19-16. Certainly don't think it's a mistake to call though. Hands like QXdd are pure calls, hand like AQ probably raises some freq.

Probably suppose to fold a lot of your flush draws also.

Yes, just fold. Do not overcomplicate things. And it's not even close imo.

not ob spot as far as I'm aware
if we assume he uses this 1 size instead 2/3p with roughly the same range, minus some lower eq hands that he's less likely to bet larger, think we have a solid fold
you have to fold some 60-70% anyway vs large bets and Qx w/o diamonds doesn't look top 30%

Why isn't turn an OB spot?

I think it's fine to call since we unblock both FD's. Don't want a King in your hand though since you want Villain to have KJ/KT.

This screams I have Axhh to me. I'd just make note of it, I dont think this would be a call with KQ. What are we doing on the river? Theres really no good cards for us on the river that we can realistically call again on. We'd just be calling hoping for our opponent to check back and that doesnt sound like a good plan. On the off chance we are ahead now, we'll be facing a huge river bet and are we really going to pay that off with second pair here?

We play each street independently though so we can't look ahead like that, since UTG won't always bet the river

How can you play it independently when there is further action to come? He may not bet the river sure, but there is a high likelihood that he does. I dont know how you can just not consider that.

I wouldn't say there is a high likelihood. It depends on the river card.

Turn ranges and river ranges are very different.

The turn is bet here because the Ace is the best card in the deck for UTG

I think you can call the turn specifically because you don't block flushdraws. His turn overbet polarizes him and since the ace hits his range he is likely to continue bluffing with all of his draws to make you fold your middle pairs.

There are 19 combos of QQ+,55-44,AQs,A5s-A4s
There are 22 combos of KdQd, KdJd, KhJh, QdJd, KdTd, KhTh, QdTd, JdTd, JhTh, Kd9d, Kh9h, Qd9d, Jd9d, Jh9h, Td9d, Th9h, 9d8d, 9h8h, 8d7d, 8h7h, 7d6d, 7h6h

Note I didn't credit villain hands like AhTh because villain is polarized.

Other than that the odds seem pretty close.

Okay I was Villain in this hand and I solved the hand using 200bb ranges - which took forever.

Ionu just keeps impressing me more and more with his poker knowledge, turn is NOT an OB spot.

Solver will use mostly 75% sizing OTF like I did and then turn is a 50% bet spot. Since I have the answers to the test I'll try to work backwards and figure out why turn is not an OB spot.

1) BB will 3bet less preflop at 200BB stack depth so he has a stronger range OTF than normal

2) Turn XR's go down (as well as donk leads) at higher SPRs - which means Villain is uncapped OTT.

3) QQ is flat called in the BB at some frequency at 200bb stack depth and 55/44 is mostly folded (since UTG tightens up more at 200BB) UTG so the nut advantage is not clearly in UTG's favor.

That is all I have for now - cool spot.

Here is the actual hand from my perspective.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.10(BB)
BTN ($13.01) [VPIP: 16.3% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 56.3% | Hands: 127]
SB ($13.23) [VPIP: 33.3% | PFR: 23.1% | AGG: 40% | Hands: 110]
BB ($32.02) [VPIP: 20% | PFR: 14.6% | AGG: 28.5% | Flop Agg: 25.8% | Turn Agg: 34.7% | River Agg: 25.8% | 3-Bet: 6.7% | 4-Bet: 18.2% | Cold Call: 11.6% | Hands: 1299]
HERO ($18.43) [VPIP: 24.5% | PFR: 21.4% | AGG: 35.2% | Flop Agg: 41.1% | Turn Agg: 28.6% | River Agg: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 10.8% | 4-Bet: 16.3% | Hands: 307749]
HJ ($22.53) [VPIP: 25.7% | PFR: 20.4% | AGG: 44.4% | Hands: 116]
CO ($5.88) [VPIP: 29.5% | PFR: 15.2% | AGG: 16.4% | Hands: 107]

Dealt to Hero: J K

HERO Raises To $0.22, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.12

Hero SPR on Flop: [37.16 effective]
Flop ($0.49): Q 5 4
BB Checks, HERO Bets $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $17.85), BB Calls $0.36 (Rem. Stack: $31.44)

Turn ($1.21): Q 5 4 A
BB Checks, HERO Bets $2.41 (Rem. Stack: $15.44), BB Calls $2.41 (Rem. Stack: $29.03)

River ($6.03): Q 5 4 A 9
BB Checks, HERO Checks

I agree on UTG continuing with a bet here, I definitely would do that. I disagree as the hand is played that we should be calling the turn bet though. I think UTGs hand is too weak to be in a turn calling range at this sizing

Hmm maybe I am not thinking about OB spots correctly.

This is not an OB spot even@100BBs. So there are less OB's in UTGvsBB than say COvsBB?

I want to run this COvsBB with the exact same run out and see if the Ace is now an OB spot.

This is crazy - same board/turn card but now COvsBB has 2x pot turn bets. We have LESS equity to the pot in this spot but we have OB range. When we have more equity like in the UTGvsBB spot - we bet smaller for higher frequency.

That's a common theme I've found.

the way I see it,
ip isn't cbetting that many Ax for 2/3, nor is oop defending a lot of Ax
oop has to start folding weak fds and oe/gs vs mid sized turn bet anyway so it seems like a sweeter spot to bet smaller and put him in tough spots
2x ob seems overkill and kills some river bluff opportunities because you narrow oop's river range too much. mby slight ob like 125% works ok as that's less likely to change oop's continuing range.

side note, I for one can't get behind the concept floating around that we have to strive and play every street independently, mby this works if you're playing a perfect game of information backed up by the processing power of a solver, but I think humans do a great job filling in the blanks with intuition and having a good multi street plan with the emphasis on higher profits down the line, on later streets, is just so much more doable. Before we didn't have solvers and top players excelled in the intuitive approach, nowadays we can combine the 2 and make much more educated guesses, seems like a pity to deliberately ignore either.

I'd much rather ob A54Q than Q54A in various positions because of what the 2 ranges look like ott but that being said, if a mid size intuitively looks like it makes me more money on rivers, I try and go with that one. same concept, I don't think choosing the perfect solver approved cb size is nearly as important as turn and ultimately river play, with the sole goal of maneuvering myself into a position where I can crush on rivers one way or another.

snap call turn if you know its doodoo i guess

just remembered, if you have a couple of hours to kill, you will love this documentary. press c to put captions on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXuK6gekU1Y

Sweet, thx will check this out

Good point - I still am not 100% on what turns to OB, I need to do more work on that for sure.

Thanks for the post