Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
Anyone ever seen graphs like these? 51bi under EV over 200k... Anyone ever seen graphs like these? 51bi under EV over 200k...

04-06-2014 , 06:13 AM
I posted this in the beginners forum too. I hope that is ok and i don't get banned for a double post or something, but I feel like both forums have alot to give on this subject.

I've been playing since 2011. on a deep level for the last year or so. im a 6max zoom player. having really dumb trouble with 10nl lifetime, but beyond crushing 5nl. The graphs kind of speak for themselves... I've taken 38 shots @ 10nl zoom in the last year, and each one ive dedicated 3bi, and ran 3bi under EV pretty quickly in every single one. I did the whole "stop taking shots, just get to 360 and start playing 10nl" thing, but it didnt last long. just cant ever hold or get it in good...but i completely decimate 5nl and run really really good there?

i mean, i feel like my 5nl graph isnt even normal, i feel like its one of the more crushing graphs on stars all together. i feel like one of the biggest winners at 5nl zoom 6max....but possibly the biggest lifetime loser at 10nl?

thoughts? ive been perplexed by this for about a year or so now. I feel like we have enough hands here to make a decent deduction. Should i just not consider trying to move up and just collect a passive side income from 5nl? all my winnings from crushing 5nl are always deleted from playing 10nl or tournies....I know alot of responses might be "downswings can last this long" but i mean, i can close my tables after running bad every day at 10nl, and load up 5nl and run amazing and win tons...getting depressed latley that all my big 5nl sessions are getting wiped away.

thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to write their thoughts.

graphs:

10nl


5nl
04-06-2014 , 06:20 AM
Post in BBV

Spoiler:
If you ran at breakeven ev you would have still lost nearly 90bi. Turn off your ev line and never look at it again, then work out why you are losing so much money.
04-06-2014 , 06:21 AM
sucks to be you at 10nl.

Theoretically you can run bad forever.
04-06-2014 , 06:41 AM
Bf your upswing @ 5nl you ran 2bb/100, so no you are not the biggest winner.
04-06-2014 , 07:00 AM
Dropping over 100 buyins at 10nl isn't variance, it's an indication of huge leaks in your game.
04-06-2014 , 07:05 AM
stop grinding manies and start learning the game
04-06-2014 , 07:38 AM
This isn't just variance. Although your total NL5 graph is 3bb/100 your last 50,000 hands looks like crushing. There has to be something that's happens at NL10 but doesn't happen at NL5 that causes you to have big leaks.

Ignore the EV line because youre losing bad even if the EV line was your winnings. Start checking specific stats and situations to see where you're loosing money. Are you losing money in certain positions, stealing, cbetting, 3betting? How often are you losing money to steals and 3bets? In general are most of your losses coming from folds or losing showdowns?

Compare the areas with the biggest losses or ones where you have losses that should be winnings (cbetting or steals I would think should be positive) and compare them to the same thing at 5NL. It shouldn't be that hard to see what's killing you when you move up.
04-06-2014 , 03:12 PM
alright thanks for the replies guys.as for having huge leaks in my game, im not so sure. i've had multiple coaches including xflixx who say i play very very solid and should be beating this limit and probably achieving at least a moderate winrate at 25nl. i mean obviously everyone has leaks if they are at the micros but what im saying is all my coaches and people who sweat me say i dont play bad enough to actually achieve this loss buildup. its really really weird
04-06-2014 , 03:21 PM
You have a moderate winrate on 5nl, so it is not likely that you can achieve a moderate winrate on 25nl without improving your game.
04-06-2014 , 03:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Patje90
You have a moderate winrate on 5nl, so it is not likely that you can achieve a moderate winrate on 25nl without improving your game.
This is true to a point. It's not like if you crush 200nl you can have a bb/100 of 12 or something at 25nl, it's not linear.
04-06-2014 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheBirdman
This is true to a point. It's not like if you crush 200nl you can have a bb/100 of 12 or something at 25nl, it's not linear.
Ofc, but your wr will drop when you move up.
04-06-2014 , 03:40 PM
Step 1 is admitting you're not very good. Your last post is an indication of why u cant even breakeven @10NL even after 200k hands. Its attitude based

As mentioned, even if you were running miles above EV you would still be losing huge. Perhaps u run just as bad in all pots as u do in all in ones, I cant say for sure . But that green line does not look good
04-06-2014 , 04:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by okletsgoAA
alright thanks for the replies guys.as for having huge leaks in my game, im not so sure. i've had multiple coaches including xflixx who say i play very very solid and should be beating this limit and probably achieving at least a moderate winrate at 25nl. i mean obviously everyone has leaks if they are at the micros but what im saying is all my coaches and people who sweat me say i dont play bad enough to actually achieve this loss buildup. its really really weird
Mate, it's 250,000 hands and the graph just goes straight downwards. There must be some leaks in your game. Yeah downswings can happen but that'd be one massive ass downswings, lol.

Tbh I'd have got concerned about 220,000 hands ago and started looking for advice.

What's your stats? If you post there there'll probably be a few obvious leaks to be ironed out. Not to mention it's not as if you need to play perfect poker every hand to beat 10nl - I for instance have huge leaks in my 3betting game, I only 3bet 4.5% of the time, but it doesn't stop me beating 10nl at a decent clip.
04-06-2014 , 04:29 PM
It sucks when it happens to you, no doubt. This may not be any consolation but I once ran over 90 buyins under EV in under 150k hands, while still yielding an overall win for the sample.

It will seem like you never win when ahead and never suck out when behind. It will make you think crazy thoughts like the game must be rigged against you. Most people cant handle this type of variance and continue to play well...they either give up totally or spiral out of control into their C game and worse. That's your main challenge going forward, IMO. If you want to continue playing poker you have to not allow the run bad of today and yesterday to control your poker decisions in the future. Its harder than it sounds to do. Good luck.
04-06-2014 , 04:34 PM
So these are my 10nl stats for zoom/regular tables stats since feburary of 2013. Before that i was kind of just doing w/e. I changed my game alot into close to what i play now. So these 157k hands are a good depiction of my style now, however i've upped my 3bet alot and put alot more emphasis on having initiative in pots.

Safe to say if i just fixed my blind play id be a winner? or is that too general. I think i've improved it by at least 25% latley from adopting the montre of "having innitative/position" as a main staple of my game now.

Again, thank you for all taking the time to help me out/give advice here. Even if they are slightly sarcastic comments


Last edited by okletsgoAA; 04-06-2014 at 04:41 PM.
04-06-2014 , 05:04 PM
i've ran 75bi below ev over 100k hands once and was still up a decent amount with rb etc

from your stats it looks like you're a regfish, not only are you losing too much in the blinds because you're coldcalling too much (at least), you're also not winning enough on other positions, your postflop aggression is way too low and a bunch of other **** is wrong

inb4 someone tells you you should 3bet more, but that really isn't your biggest issue, also inb4 you start spewing like crazy because you think that's what being more aggressive means

you got a **** ton to work on, try posting hands and watch some videos and most importantly, learn to think for yourself, one step at the time though...

Last edited by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.); 04-06-2014 at 05:09 PM.
04-06-2014 , 05:17 PM
^
04-06-2014 , 06:04 PM
3b more :^)
04-06-2014 , 06:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
i've ran 75bi below ev over 100k hands once and was still up a decent amount with rb etc

from your stats it looks like you're a regfish, not only are you losing too much in the blinds because you're coldcalling too much (at least), you're also not winning enough on other positions, your postflop aggression is way too low and a bunch of other **** is wrong

inb4 someone tells you you should 3bet more, but that really isn't your biggest issue, also inb4 you start spewing like crazy because you think that's what being more aggressive means

you got a **** ton to work on, try posting hands and watch some videos and most importantly, learn to think for yourself, one step at the time though...
I appreciate this feedback. Thanks
04-06-2014 , 08:00 PM
you have won@SD 56% you either
1) run hot
2) are too nitty postflop

probably a combination of both
04-06-2014 , 08:37 PM
zoom has less fish than normal tables, judging by your stats i think you can easily beat 10nl normal tables, so:
1) switch to normal tables, insta profit from higher % of fish and probably move up to at least 25nl w/o studying the game
or
2) stay at zoom but put in lots of work especially regarding btn/sb/bb play and beating the typical b/e reg
04-07-2014 , 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by (.)(.)(.)(.)(.)(.)
i've ran 75bi below ev over 100k hands once and was still up a decent amount with rb etc

from your stats it looks like you're a regfish, not only are you losing too much in the blinds because you're coldcalling too much (at least), you're also not winning enough on other positions, your postflop aggression is way too low and a bunch of other **** is wrong

inb4 someone tells you you should 3bet more, but that really isn't your biggest issue, also inb4 you start spewing like crazy because you think that's what being more aggressive means

you got a **** ton to work on, try posting hands and watch some videos and most importantly, learn to think for yourself, one step at the time though...
Pretty much all of this. You also seem to have a ****ty lazy attitude. My coach says x. Why do you have so many coaches to beat 10nl.

How to crush microstakes
Step1: ignore most of the cretins in uNL most are breakeven regfish that will set you're game back.
Step2: plan how you're going to improve. Have time set aside for post session review when you're fresh. Plan study time.
Step3: Be honest with yourself. Turn off EV , ignore it and focus on every aspect of your game ground up.
Step4: work out what a range is, look up resources what common ones are from each position (the changes). Learn them then start constructing your own and tesTing them and refining. This will help you understand why you need to almost never call some regs in river spots.
Step5: open your mind that things are not absolute in poker. Always look for and figure out the WHY question. Lots of players watch vids and coaching but don't understand exactly WHY something is good or they should be doing. You must know exactly WHY so you can use it and extrapolate simmilar principles in other spots and fuel learning.
Step5: agression in the right spots wins poker, however vs some villains you make more checking and bluff catching .work on figuring out why this is and when to do it .
Step6: Have a goal of where you Want to be , how you plan to do it. If it's 200nl the limitations are the skill gap and bankroll. Bankrolls can be built but skills must be learned . So taking shortcuts to just chase fish and table select stunts you're learning. In short don't be a pussy, seek out regs you think are good, play with them and learn.
Step7: Mental game. The difference between someone's A game and tilt game is massive. Soft skills in poker are often overlooked. Being the least tiltable guy at the table makes you +EV in close to anylinup at you're limit.

My advice, you can crush micros being mega positionally agro (wide 3b ranges otb) and defending blinds wide through a combo of calling and 3 betting. As it stands you're a regfish that wins a tiny amount from co/otb and bleeds in the blinds.
04-07-2014 , 02:48 AM
Great post from cardbrute, the mental game is the most important for you op based on how you started this thread
04-07-2014 , 04:02 AM
Yeah, best advice is to try to think for yourself and be honest with yourself as cardbrute has said.
04-07-2014 , 04:13 AM
very cool. thanks for the input. i am very lazy. i hardly ever review my session, just 1 or 2 hands sometimes. i haven't been using any range programs in a while. i think its mainly because any time i read something new, or get advice i'm always like "yeah i knew this i knew that"

i definitely am bad at studying/working on my game. i generally have a poor work ethic with everything. any input on what you guys do to maintain work ethic would be appreciated as well. i definitely want to improve, and can accept that im a regfish right now.
Closed Thread Subscribe
...

      
m