meh im not sure i think i like c/c better

fold pre

C/c and then bet river if it checks through is probably best in a vacuum. My only problem is that your double barrel range would become extremely unbalanced in villains eyes if he is thinking about something like that and this hand got to showdown.

I think a lot of regs at 50NL will get themselves stacked with AK in this spot if hero takes a 'weird' line like b/cr. It might not work all of the time but in the long run it could be the best play for value. So much FPS going on in reg wars at 50NL that a lot of regs will call the turn c/r with AK to 're-evalutate' on the turn - yes a lot of them have this leak!! - only to realize they are getting like 3:1 on the river and end up calling cuz well, they're getting 3:1.

So true. Especially if you have a tricky and laggy image this works great.

Why do you guise wanna fold sets for 100bbs in HU pots?

I'm not a fan of the c/r unless the villain is a spewtard, but I don't want to fold either.

Because he doesn't raise without a set.

R u sure? Then don't c/r.

I'm pritty sure?

And I think he calls a check/raise with alot of other stuff other than sets, so I don't really see your argument there.

Like what? AK is about it.

Hell, a bad to average reg might even call with KQ.

But brock, what's his range for calling the flop? AK and KQ makes out a larg shunk of his range, together with air and QQ and smaller PPs. And from the two latters we're not getting any significant value anyway. So we might as well go ahead and raise on the turn and stack him if he has AK (or maaaybe KQ).

Depends how good this "villain" is. If this is me and I cold call with KQ/AK I'm never betting this turn when checked to, so he's either betting as a bluff and a c/r gets us nowhere, or he's betting the nutz and we get stacked.

This thread has blown my mind, i love it.

i'm totally sold on c/c b/f

Okey, but I think the average 50NL reg is betting AK if we check to him.

Yeah NOT is likely correct for sure. It's hard to see this type of villain value raising worse on the river. Against a fish we can stack off here easy though b/c TP is da nutz!

I guess he's looking at it from the perspective that the villain can call with worse on the river, but will check back the worse a large % of the time.

Maybe, maybe not.

But let's keep his range wide - so he bets, but does he stack off?? - we don't know. His may feel his is strong enough to bet, but not strong enough to call a c/r, so we don't get much value by c/r.

There was a hand posted in SSNL the other day that illustrates this point - MW pot fish opens from UTG+2, hero calls in CO with AJs, BTN calls, and BB calls.

flop is AA7hh: action goes chk/chk to the hero and he elects to chk in hopes the button (who is sort of fishy) will stab allowing him to c/r. However, OP's thinking is bad here because c/r narrows our range too much - villain has lots of stuff that will call lead value bets, but doesn't have that many hands that will call a c/r on this type of board - even if he is a little fishy - I think he was like 27/12 or something.

Only thing preventing me from folding this river is history of villain bluffing river, because nothing in his value range is worse than 222.

At NL50 I don't imagine we'll run into a villain smart enough to bluff us here

It would be rare. He would have to know that we can make big lay downs too. fwiw, I don't why a villain would ever bet turn here with AK against a competent reg - what can we get value from other than KQ. Basically we need to hope he's overvaluing AK or he's floating against our UP or AQ. I really feel the villain could have a hand here like JJ/QQ a lot and will chk the turn, but call a river bet.

agreed that its odd for a standard villain to value-bet turn with AK here. I know of a lot of regs who abuse position when checked to by a c-bettor on the turn, so with their image value-betting AK would work here.

It all comes down to history and reads with your villain.

Yeah I like checking a little better too for this reason.

On the other point about vbetting AK: if the flop was A36r and we CC with AK, then I like betting the turn if the villain checks because he can call with AQ/AJ.

Depends entirely on our image and how often we'd 2barrel this board. Also need villain's fold to cbet and fold to 2barrel. I get called down a lot here with AK/KQ and pairs here so I have no problem betting out all 3 streets. I do like the c/c, bet line, but depending on the reg, I'm weak-leading the river some of the time in hopes of inducing.

i am betting betting betting the turn, he still is likely to call with smaller pairs under the k that aren't sets at the 2 really doesn't change anything from the flop unless he knows you like to get loose with some rags in mp. But for the most part the board hasn't changed, and he likely was floating. So he has to figure you to two barrel the turn regardless because hes floating the flop a lot. Setting himself up to value own himself with TPTK, as I would guess some people like to flat with AK pre ip as I like to do as well. Not sold on b/f the turn for the reasons I have stated previously maybe I am an idiot.


Edit not many hands at 50 so last sentence maybe the case.

I see many responses suggesting lines that start with checking.


Now to OP's actual questions, which are:

So you're asking for the most profitable line (I guess), and give three options. You don't specify the bet sizes, but I guess we can assume each bet or raise is about 2/3 to a full pot size bet, which would mean there's (quite a lot) less than a pot size bet left in villain's stack after his turn raise. (Do correct me if I'm wrong!)

Here's my opinion/answer.

1a) bet/fold

I don't think so.
Lacking any post-flop stats on the villain (other than solid reg) and regarding the stack sizes, we're are not folding a set here. Even bottom set.
So unless we have more reads on or history with villain, we are not betting this turn and then folding to a raise.

That leaves us with

1b) bet/call and
1c) bet/3bet

Which I think somehow translates to 'What is the more likely way for us to get villain's remaining stack (now or on the river) once he raised our turn bet?' and 'What's our action going to be on the river if we call his turn raise?' (We're not c/f the river, right?)

Or, assuming - since we did not choose option a) - that we think (hope..) our set is indeed good: 'How do we get villain's stack?'


Before we decide on what to do, we have to find an answer to OP's final question:

which brings up a bunch of new questions that are essential to finding the most profitable line of making villain stack off with a worse hand:

What parts/percentages of villain's raising range are

a)calling a turn 3bet or
b)folding to a turn 3bet or
c)calling a river bet or
d)folding to a river bet
(e)or bluffing on the river if we check)?


To which I don't have an answer at the moment...


But I do like to know if my assumptions, guesses and resulting new questions have somehow been close to what OP is asking for and also if OP could provide more reads on villain (ie. short specification of 'solid reg'). That would help finding the best line to get the money in (which is the mission, in my opinion - unless solid reg = stacks off with set+ 'only', which would make option a) viable again...)

i will bet the turn for value otherwise he could check behind a lot and i lose a street of value.

based on timing i will bet river big or small (fast call = stronger than timebank call)

About the hand: I agree that both b/b/b and b/c/b both have merits and are mostly villain dependant.

I made this thread because i was thinking about suited connectors vs small pp from ep during my 11 hour flight. Reasons i picked this hand and this board was because i can't see our hand ever being good if we are raised somewhere along the line. I think its unlikely for a competent villain to turn ak,kq or random hands into a bluff here. Villain must know we this isnt the best board to double barrel on since the 2 is unlikely to have improved anyone. Therefore our range for betting this turn will be weighed towards the value side. However the value range of our hands never beats his value raising range. Therefore i might actually fold (in theory im not good enough to fold sets in practice) here, because villain is unlikely to bluff here and i dont beat value hands. Of course everything changes against players who arent as good.

Which brings me to the point of raising hands like this on "tough" tables as a balancer. If you cant even stack off with bottom sets on dry boards most of the time whats the point of raising them pre over suited connectors. When people coldcall pre their range often is atleast 50% small pp trying to setmine you. If you raise with a small pp however you are often going to be coolered. If you miss you will often also be unable to double barrel because you simply dont have enough fold+card equity. If you had raised with a small suited connector however you are unlikly to be "coolered" since the hands that villains will try to crack your aces are unlikely to contain higher flushes or straights. Your straights will also be just as conceded as your flushes since villains are unlikely to put you on them. Anyone have thoughts on this?