50NL: iso w/ T9s; flopped FD, picked up extra equity on turn, but get donked into... - Page 2 - Micro Stakes Pot Limit and No Limit

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Online No-Limit Hold’em Cash

50NL: iso w/ T9s; flopped FD, picked up extra equity on turn, but get donked into...

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 2 of 2

1 2

Page 2 of 2

1 2

04-08-2011 , 03:21 AM

#26

metski

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,600

i think turn call is not that bad because of the extra equity with the gutshot.

lets say you have AKhh vs 9Thh pretty big def imo.
with AKhh would need about 4-1 with our hand only need 3-1 getting 2-1 immediate odds and i definately think we have implied odds a higher FD prob ships the flop if he wants to play it aggressively.

i dont think hes ever doing it as a bluff on turn so were likely to get paid off on river.

as played i think you have to call prob has 66 or 86 for a boat but will have straights or some bs enough of time for it to be ok call.

Last edited by metski; 04-08-2011 at 03:30 AM.

Quote

04-08-2011 , 03:23 AM

#27

flip2win

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,944

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exothermic

i think he shoves every hand he thought was best ott as who is going to expect you to have a flush... i hate the turn call though

if this is true - then the turn is always a call given IO.

Quote

04-08-2011 , 03:23 AM

#28

flip2win

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 3,944

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teppec

My decision to call isn't so much villain fishiness in and of itself (Fish are bad yo!)as it is the wide range of hands villain can play this way, and we beat a substantial percentage of that range.

I'm not sure why you think it's a fold.

I mean it's an odds call, but like i said, i don't think we are necessarily ahead of his range.

Quote

04-08-2011 , 04:37 AM

#29

Exothermic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 16,810

so we have 25% equity vs str8's & sets ott getting 2:1 with $25 behind & missing the river 3/4 times meaning its mathematically -ev to flat given effective stacks regardless if hes shoving river everytime even when the flush hits, + the board pairs and we still want to fold when we want to hit, i mean i have no clue how the turn is a good call taking everything into consideration

p.s maybe my math is off but im sure its not by much

Quote

04-08-2011 , 07:57 AM

#30

metski

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 4,600

Quote:

Originally Posted by Exothermic

we need 3 - 1

lets say he stacks off 100%

25% of time we bink river and he shoves pot will be $31+25shove (81)
75% of time we call and miss losing $10

.25(81) + .75(-10)

EV= +12.75

if we get $10 off him on the river every time we hit its breakeven.

3 out of 4 times we lose $10 = -$30
1 out of 4 times we win $30