Hi,

villain is runnin 67/13/2 (AF) after only 40 hands.

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Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($43.20)
BB ($50.35)
UTG ($52.90)
UTG+1 ($85.60)
UTG+2 ($39.45)
MP1 ($65.60)
MP2 ($50)
Hero ($50)
BTN ($27.30)

Dealt to Hero 9 T

fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $1.50

FLOP ($4.75) 5 8 3

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3.25, UTG+2 calls $3.25

TURN ($11.25) 5 8 3 6

UTG+2 bets $10
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We have at best 25% equity but we need to be good 32% of the time... So do you fold at that point, or do you think our IO are big enough. Also there could be RIO when the board pairs and a heart comes up.

I think the IO makes a call fine, but as you said gonna be rough if the board pairs.

calling is awesome imo. if villain is a fish he'll stack off with JJ+ and all the other random crap he has.

Ok, that's what i thought too, and i called. But then a good but also really worse card hits, and villain put us in a tough spot:

----
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($43.20)
BB ($50.35)
UTG ($52.90)
UTG+1 ($85.60)
UTG+2 ($39.45)
MP1 ($65.60)
MP2 ($50)
Hero ($50)
BTN ($27.30)

Dealt to Hero 9 T

fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $2, fold, fold, fold, UTG+2 calls $1.50

FLOP ($4.75) 5 8 3

UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $3.25, UTG+2 calls $3.25

TURN ($11.25) 5 8 3 6

UTG+2 bets $10, Hero calls $10

RIVER ($31.25) 5 8 3 6 8

UTG+2 bets $24.20 (AI)
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Is this ever a overpair, 8x or 2h4h (^^) to make this a call? Also what do you think his range for donking pot-sized on turn after l/c pre and c/c on flop is?

This looks like the classic loose passive set shove the nuts on the river. Villains like these slowplay sets at horrible boards sometimes. Villain could also have 66 here.

I'd fold.

still dont hate a call.

What do you expect him to have, after he takes that line?

im assuming hes incredibly fishy, would you think that he is? if so i could probably stove something reasonable.

At this point i didn't know if he is incredibly fishy. The thing is, that there are not many worse flushes he could have, his turn donk screems 66 or 88, 55, 33 or even 68, and i'm not sure how many overpairs, besides 99 and TT, which we have blockers for, are in his l/c range, and if he would c/c and donk turn pot-sized with them.

I would have thought the parlay of hitting your hand and then having him have something he's willing to stack off with, (other than a higher flush or boat) would have made this pretty thin. If you make your hand and it's good, he has to stack off 63% of the time you bet for you to break even. And that doesn't include any compensation for RIO. It seems like at least some of your outs are going to look dangerous even to a fish. Any 7 puts 4 to a straight out there (great if he has the 9, but perhaps dampening his ardor to lose all with JJ+).

I would have tanked and then folded to the T bet, but perhaps I underestimate my chances in these spots.

i dont think your br=eating ant of his value range here and i doubt this is a bluff

As played I think I call here because I am a station. Also I do think you beat 8x in his value range of which a lot of combo's exist.

But as played overall. iso-ing with 9T suited relies heavily on FE for its profitability. You did not pick the right V for taking initiative with 9T suited here as he is clearly not a folder. Still maybe +EV, not sure, but much less so than a fit or folder. Also higher variance by extension.

I think I fold turn to be perfectly honest. Pay 10 to win 46 and not sure if hearts, nines , tens or board pairings are clean.

yeah turn is close - villain would have to pay you off all the time when the flush draw hits. i still think river is a fold. probably the worst card that could've come off and usually the flush card stops villains with one pair (I guess in this case two pair or worse). i think you almost always see a better flush or a boat in this case.

That looks like a donk bet straight to me. Three combinations: 24, 47, 79. Can't be sure.

In any case, I think I'd call.

I think he does this with enough straights to be worth a call.

I am disinclined to fold.

The guy can have what, 10x pockets for set/quad combos, another 6x 86o/s combos. Since he's got >60 (!) vpip, I feel comfortable giving him all 12x of the 79o/s combos, and 8x (half) of the 47o/s combos. I am not too worried about higher flushes, I do not believe he would ch/c flop and suddenly donk pot on the blankish turn (in terms of flush draws), so at worst we're splitting between worse and better flush draws, and personally, I don't expect to see better flush draws when villain takes this line with any frequency worth considering.

So we give him all of the 86o combos (basically weighting them 100% vs discounting some but giving him some 58o/s combos) and all sets, we've got 16x full house combos. We've got another 20x straight combos (and that's not all possible straights either, there's 44 total). This is beyond the times he randomly spazzes like 56o on the river or something (turn two pair, get counterfeited and not see it, etc), or just randomly spazzes air, he is a fish after all.

I think we have to call, and for what it's worth, I call turn too with the intention of stacking any heart and any 7, and making decisions on 9s or Ts.


Oh, one other thing, if there was any heart I'd consider folding to on the river it'd be the 6h, since villain can then have all of the 56 boats and all of the 86 boats. Much more common than seeing 58o/s boats. However, still too many straights out there to fold when the flush hits.

I think turn is a fold, it's too close and considering he has a set, straight or larger flush draw ( less often then other two) here often which is stripping away your outs. You also need him AI on river to justify turn call and he probably folds sometimes. At best it's Thinly +EV.

As played I call river because I always pay off 67/13s.

well remember the sample size is very small. i think the only thing we can actually derive from villain info is the fact that villain is very passive pre flop and thus probably relatively passive post flop.

We can also derive that villain is likely playing a huge range of hands, and probably isn't going to differentiate hand strength much between two pairs and sets and straights.

I think he has 8x here often too.

I can't fold to fish.

possibly. though villain will most likely play a rather wide range of hands (maybe not 67%) and will have a poor idea of hand values/ranges, i think a lot of passive fish tend to slow down on the flush card even with the trip 8s and some straights.

i guess i don't mind the call. given the odds, it is probably a call, but i expect to be behind a lot.

i don't like folding to fish either in practice, but i think we can all save money by getting rid of the "i don't fold to fish" mentality and really look into what type of fish we are dealing with.

looks like a fold. but i prob call in-game

My decision to call isn't so much villain fishiness in and of itself (Fish are bad yo!)as it is the wide range of hands villain can play this way, and we beat a substantial percentage of that range.


I'm not sure why you think it's a fold.

depends how bad of a fish were talking about. But even fish arent blind and can see that the flush hit which should be slowing him down

Nevermind just saw he's running 67/13. So yeah call

i think he shoves every hand he thought was best ott as who is going to expect you to have a flush... i hate the turn call though