PokerStars - $0.50 Ante $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 460.5 BB (VPIP: 34.12, PFR: 24.71, 3Bet Preflop: 6.82, Hands: 86)
BB: 250 BB (VPIP: 31.40, PFR: 25.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 88)
Hero (BTN): 440.26 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, 3 players post ante of 0.2 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has 8 T

Hero raises to 3 BB, SB raises to 11 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB

Flop: (23.6 BB, 2 players) 5 8 T
SB checks, Hero bets 16 BB, SB calls 16 BB

Turn: (55.6 BB, 2 players) K
SB checks, Hero bets 45.06 BB, SB calls 45.06 BB

River: (145.72 BB, 2 players) 6
SB checks, Hero bets 108 BB, SB raises to 388.24 BB and is all-in, Hero?

No additional reads on villain other than seems to be a bit cally and most likely perceives me as a maniac, I'm running 38/31, 20% 3-bet over 100 hands, and basically being a huge PITA.

On the river I'm pretty confused as I don't ever expect him to be x/jamming anything OTR, I don't beat any value bets but really have no idea what value hands he has here, thoughts?

i close my eyes and click call

You are a maniac, calling a 3B with 8To lol

no clue.

AQ, AJ ss?

really tough spot. your range looks like you could be value betting a King here a large portion of the time and if villain might expect you to fold this to a XR. the only hands i can think of that do this for value is QJss/AJss/AQss.

am i crazy to think there are more bluff in his range because of your perceived range and thus can call or am i not only way out of line but leveling myself?

oooh the bdfd got there..
he might be bluffing with some As5x As8x tho

A5
65
75
AQ
AJ

these hands beat us, and make sense for him to play like that (whether it's an optimal line for him is a different question).

does he think you'll fire 100 % of your range when checked to? that might encourage a bluff like this.

but when facing a giant bluff when deep, i think the most important question is this:

does he have the balls to check/shove for 440bbs?

do some ev calcs against different ranges to figure this out. if i were to venture a guess, i'd say this is a fold against most ranges. we can have sets, 2 pairs, flushes, straights - and it takes a grown ass man to bluff the river here.

I have position and believe I have an edge postflop with a ton of room behind and a semi decent hand, folding pre is pretty bad IMO.

I do think that if he's capable of bluffing this river he is far more likely to because of my perceived range being super wide when it actually isn't that wide, yes.

I do think he thinks I'll probably fire off 100% here, yes.

I do agree with you that those are probably the only 5 hands he can have here, probably A5ss, 65ss and 75ss bet flop some percentage of the time as I don't think he would want to induce me to barrel off here against bottom pair with just back door draws, I actually think he is more likely to x/c AK/AQ/AJ than bottom pair here, so I think I give him a value range consisting of 4 combos in total, I think the questions for me are a) is he capable of bluffing here and b) value shoving wide enough expecting me to call with worse (I.e. Bottom set)

Part of me thinks if he is capable of value shoving 55 he's capable of bluffing the river here, I'm not sure if that's a fair assumption?

dno if he jams sets otr but if you think he'll expect you to fire off 100% when checked to then he could easily have all sets in his range getting to the river
wouldn't expect him to jam sets tho except maybe KK, just saying he might play sets like this

Op, how many of those 100 hands were 3 handed? You might not be playing that crazy with those stats

Would expect villain to barrell off most asxs combos that he 3bets and the only hands I think he shows up with here are askx as5s as5x as8x

Sort of a sick spot that villain can put us in this deep with that pretty card when his non flush combos block the nuts.

Nobody good is x/r a non nut flush or set on this board, this deep, with asxx in heros range

if he perceives you as a bad lag player, then he can have 55 here. if he perceives you as a good lag player, then he probably can't.

we should probably just revert to game theory, consider our river bet/calling range, and (probably) fold here, and curse the gods that we didn't have one of the flushes we could have in this spot.

I don't think it is. First of all I think 55 would be way too thin of a shove for him as you'd probably need to be calling some 1pair hands for 55 to be ahead of your calling range. You can have basically all flushes in your range, higher sets and 97s

I guess it is actually a fair assumption tho, because I doubt anyone would ever jam 55 here while not having a bluffing range, just because 55 is so thin. there's no reason to assume he's anywhere close to being balanced otr tho, and a range of 55+ and bluffs is waay too wide to assign to him here tbh. honestly I think most unl regs are just gonna have a really strong value range and close to no bluff range in this spot

I think roughly 40 of them were three handed. I tend to disagree with the last part and think whatever flushes he gets to the river with he should be jamming. Maybe that's idea is wrong and is likely a byproduct of playing a lot of HU.

I haven't done anything spewy really so there isn't much reason to perceive me as a bad lag in this spot, I've not been peeling tons of 4-bets OOP etc. If he's a regular here I'm going to be an unknown to him for the most part.

If we revert to game theory in this spot what is the bottom of our calling range in this spot, something like sets or better?

I do agree 55+ is way too wide a value range in this spot, but it's the only set I realistically see him having in this spot (I suppose he can have TT/88 very occasionally) because I just expect him to barrel KK and never get to the river with 66. Also he probably doesn't slowplay sets all that often here, because it's quite a connected board.

So I guess he is pretty much super polarised here to the good flushes and air?

So I guess he is pretty much super polarised here to the good flushes and air?[/QUOTE]

Nut flushes and Asxx hands he turns into a bluff on the river are all villain shows up with here. most 50NL player can see this as a great spot to x/r river with the nuts blocked

Nut flushes and Asxx hands he turns into a bluff on the river are all villain shows up with here. most 50NL player can see this as a great spot to x/r river with the nuts blocked[/QUOTE]

What AsXo hand villain can show up with? ATo A8o? Is he 3 betting those?
Doesn't seem very aggro pre, would he 3 bet the offsuit versions?

AsKo I guess makes some little sense if he sees villain villain as very aggro. Wait no it doesn't, it makes TPTK, he is most probably not turning that into a a bluff.

AsQo Yeah maybe if he was planning on calling down with A high and then noticed that this is a good spot to C/R. Maybe most likely.

But realistically most AsX hands are AsAxs hands. People 3 bet suited versions more. More likely he called turn with a suited version etc.

i dont think he turns AK or AA into a bluff

That's what I said.
It's hard for him to have AsXo

My best guess is bluffs are nearly non-existent but of course always possible. And thin value hands like sets or top two beat you. Like what I read AQss was my first reasonable guess but the other Axss hands I saw make sense too. Can you be sure this isn't a bluff this deep? Of course not. If I was to but a percentage on the times he bluffs this deep I think a good number is about 5%? Just fold you're hand isn't that strong. A board that runs out something like T8xK8 would be much closer obviously but still not a fistpump call this deep.

I've played a fair bit in these, pm me villains name and ill tell you what to do and why

Its 50nl and he just X/Jammed river for 400bb. Easy fold. It's not even like your close to the top of your range.

we might both draw a same conclusion but i think you're seeing it wrong.

Its not just the top of your range it's how this part of our range intersects villains range in this spot. If villain jams nothing less than a flush for value (but has bluffs?) it wouldnt matter particularily where in our range we are, our best call candidates would logically be the ones with the best possible blockers rather than absolute strength ( a set).

A hand like KQ with Qspades would be a much better candidate for a hero call tbh. Due to it blocking a tonn of villain combos.

This is a very tricky spot agreed, but I think just viewing it in terms of where you are in your own range is a mistake

This is irrelevant.

In this spot there is basically no difference between having T8 or TT.

I will do when I have access to my database again.

So if we think he's polarised to flushes and air then out calling engage should really be picked out of AsKx, KxQs, Tx8s, 5s5x and 8s8x (I guess we only need to bluff catch with 2 or so of those and we should be folding stuff like TT?

Although I think having AsKx in this spot would be super weird and I wouldn't be sure if it's a call or a fold because we have the As.