Flat pre seems a no-brainer given villain's stats but many regs will 3bet this hand here so to an extent our perceived range is weaker than our actual range preflop. No specific reads on villain.

1) What's hero's action at this particular point?
2) What if we flat and BB 3bets?
3) If we flat, what about the turn: a) if BB folds, b) if BB calls?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $27.53
SB: $49.69 (VPIP: 18.04, PFR: 15.60, 3Bet Preflop: 9.56, Hands: 337)
BB: $28.51 (VPIP: 17.17, PFR: 13.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 107)
UTG: $7.90 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
MP: $18.88 (VPIP: 15.46, PFR: 12.37, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 100)
CO: $83.25 (VPIP: 24.91, PFR: 19.13, 3Bet Preflop: 4.31, Hands: 283)

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.35) Hero has Q Q

fold, MP raises to $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35, 3 players) A Q K
BB bets $1.25, MP raises to $3.75, Hero ???

I would call and try to get it in on the turn. if a 4straight comes, you have position so at least you'll have some info.

you're not deep enough to fold here.

I'd be looking to get it in, the only reason to call would be in hopes that the BB comes along for the ride.

Tho AKJT are all very very scary cards.

I like a call here and hope to represent AQ. I think raising actually over reps our hand.

I don't think BB would donk with JT or MP would raise JT either. MP can definitely show up with AA or KK here, so I'd just call and hope BB 3-bets or something.

your hand is probably dead most ott

JT is in both players ranges at this point and pfr has AA/KK. Not sure how often he raises AQ/ prob not KQ, maybe AK but that's small amount of combo's

I'd consider folding/calling 1 bet and proceeding cautiously ott/otr

There's 12 combos of AK/AQ and 10 combos of AA/KK/JTs -- so i don't think your characteristic of "small amount of combos" is accurate.

yea thats why i said not sure how often he raises AQ or AK.

He might raise AQ 30% and AK 60%, which would equate to 8 combo's, they can have JTo as well for multiple reasons so they have more like 22 nut hands

MP is never opening preflop with JTo and i doubt BB flats it either.

Even if the Villain can hold JTs, there's not a lot of reason why he needs to raise it on the flop, it's not that vulnerable to being outdrawn.

To say either MP doesnt open JTo ever or BB doesn't flat ever is making too many high variance assumptions.

JTo can open a lot there and also flat a lot in BB's spot

That aside, the frequency in which 2pair actually raises can be a lot lower, I felt like I was being generous with my frequency assumptions and there is plenty of reason to raise JT. Mainly because it gets max value. Nobody folds sets or two pair so why not raise it up and get their stack ASAP? people play that way much more often than flatting to control their range, they just play unbalanced and it works fine given nobody properly adjusts

With that Vpip/PFR, no MP is not raising JTo there, maybe he is (but it can bet a WTF!!! moment if he does have it). BB could have it sure he could call with JTo.

There is also plenty of reason to raise AK/AQ because "most better hands should've raise Pre", and if any broadway card comes on the turn will either kill your hand or kill your action.

So you say that there is no reason to raise JT because not very many turns will kill our action but then you say we should raise AQ/AK because some turns might kill our action. Seems a bit contradictory to me mate lol

Anyway, i know what you mean about them not having JTo from MP often, but people do adjust their ranges to table dynamic and he can open some % for a few reasons, the first being that the table looks ridiculously tight and hero probably shouldn't even be sitting at it, but opening JTo is probably +EV in his spot since TAG's are gonna fold a lot, especially to him because of his image.

And as for the WTF moments, you must know by now that's how micro's work? No matter what happens, you try to out play someone or hand read them to 1 combo and then you always get the WTF moments when they show up with something completely ridiculous, played backwards for no reason at all lol

obv call

Not obvious actually, bad reverse implied odds. Probably just fold now.

^^If we fold, are we only continuing with the nuts?

lolllllllllllllllllllllllllll

Vs this guy, probably KK, AA, TJ only. He raises a tight player donking anyway. We block AQ, QK, he never does this with KQ.

AK is very possible but even against this he still has outs and we get stacked if a K/A comes.

Thanks. Now once you have gotten off your high horse you can explain to me the valid points of calling flop then I will explain my points for folding.

O and btw just because you have a set doesn't mean you can't fold vs a nit.
okkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk?

I don't have AA, KK in this spot, I'm 3betting those pre.

this

Eh I mean I don't think the folders should get flamed at all, but I'm certainly not folding this hand for 2bets here with absolute position

True, so I would just continue with the nuts then here.

How do you play turns?

I'd probably re-raise, planning to fold to a 4 bet, continuing vs a call. This guy most likely has AK, AQ, maybe AJ/A10. Vs AJ/A10 you're still getting like 35%. AA/KK is a threat but if you count up the combos:

6 AA/KK, <-- 94% beat you
24 J10, <-- 65% beat you
24 AJ/A10, <-- 81-84% favor you
3 AQ, <-- 90% favor you
9 AK, <-- 77-81% favor you

Looks decent.

I think he bets the way he did with all of this range because you and BB flatting preflop makes it a good play from him (I don't think he's re-raising with KQ).

I'm not flatting because a big chunk of his range bets with a J or 10 on the turn and forces you to fold. A 4 bet smells like AA, KK or J10 so I'm re-raising with the intention of folding.

I don't know if this is the best line, just my gut. The flaw in my analysis may be that he'd reraise with AJ/A10, but then again if he's tight he might not raise J10o from MP.

He never ever ever ever ever has AJ, AT here. It makes no sense to do this.

underrepped hand, close to top of our range, position, still turn and river to play

tbf, im not happy if we get bombed on turn and river, but folding flop is simply not an option