How would you play this hand? Any advice/thoughts appreciated. Thanks.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 Zoom, 6 Players

SB: $10.11 (101.1 bb)
BB: $14.98 (149.8 bb) Unknown
UTG: $23.08 (230.8 bb)
MP: $13.38 (133.8 bb)
CO: $9.03 (90.3 bb)
Hero (BTN): $21.26 (212.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with A Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.15, BB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.70, SB folds

Flop: ($2) Q 2 J (2 players)
BB bets $0.97, Hero calls $0.97

Turn: ($3.94) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $1.91, Hero calls $1.91

River: ($7.76) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $4.44, Hero ???

Fold river readless.

Q: Can we raise turn?

We have Ac so there's way less FD's in his range. So what better hands bet turn and will fold (nothing) or worse hands and will call (KQ?). I mean he has to have {AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ} on the river right? Cause he'd check back KQ and even AQ sometimes I would have thought.

I would have a problem folding the river.
I mean why did we call pre to fold on the perfect board and runout w/ the top of our range?

If you only add 4 combo's of KTs alone you already have to call. Also it's BB vs BTN, it's not unreal to find 4 bluff combo's in his range imo.

You want to raise turn but fold river.... horrible stuff....

I think it's a pretty clear call on every street.

I think that's the problem though, the value to bluff to ratio seems reasonable to call if we're GTO but against the average 10z villain I can't imagine seeing KTs almost ever.

We call pre because we're in position and usually have around 40-45% equity vs average BB 3b range. We only need 36% to call. We usually realise our equity because close to all villain don't triple barrel on a Qhi board without a better hand. Folding here doesn't prove we shouldn't flat pre.

It's not about being GTO. It's simply pot odds.
I think, especially given postions, it's just too nitty to think he can't show up with only 4 worse/bluff combo's in his 3 barrel range.

If your wanting to fold river you should just fold pre

No, this is a situation I think where we blow out worse hands with aggression and get called by hands that have us beat.

Keep the passive line.

River sucks, but I think we gotta fold unless we know Villain is LAG and could be bluffing fairly often. 3-Bet + 3 streets aggression is going to be over's or JJ/QQ too often. I don't think KQ or AJ is this trigger happy.

So you are saying that if you want to fold top pair... ever... you should just fold that hand pre? Or just in 3bet pots? Or just when it's TPTK? Or just when it's the BB 3bet barreling? Are you saying that if you flat a 3bet and hit top pair you need to be willing to get the money in irrespective of the board or action?

Thankyou, yes

Nice topic title.

If you never think he bluffs I guess it's a fold, but standard call.

Call the squeeze pre with AQo and then decide to become a believer after calling 2 streets?

I see this play and can fold despite odds, as he's absolutely screaming aa or kk on every street. Unless I've seen him bluff every street regularly, I don't believe he has anything we beat, and it's not a call I make hoping to chop.

The reasoning is not: surely he doesn't have it, surely he doesn't have it, oh maybe he does.

The reasoning is: pre he's laying me good odds to call because my calling range does well vs his squeezing range. Flop, my hand does well vs his flop cbet range. Turn, my hand does well vs his turn cbet range. River, my hand does not do well vs his river cbet range.

It's not about being a believer, it's about narrowing his range.

Also, thanks for the comments Brokenstars and slic.

So what squeezing range are you putting him on ?

OP, dissect this and you should be able to see how this has relation to my original reply.

Fold.

Villain is rarely bluffing here and he isn't betting 3 streets for value with anything you beat either. The fact you hold the Ac massively reduces his bluffing range as well.

It's a nitty fold but it's the correct one IMO.

nah. there are still a lot of hands that villain could bluff with that had some equity other than just nut flush draws. AK, AT, KT, T9s, small clubs, random spew. There will be some chops also.

There was a time where it was good to be super nitty in this situation because people were so passive in general, but those days have been over for a while.

Call. You can't just assume that people never bluff ever because they do.

Do you have reason to believe that villain is 3betting those types of hands?

I saw a guy 3-bet T9s once. It was crazy.

Seriously though, those would be fine hands to have in a squeeze range.

I saw a guy 3bet 52o once. It was crazy. Shall we include all off-suit two gappers in villains' range now as well?

What I'm trying to say is that we have no reason to believe that's what THIS villain is doing. Sure, if we've seen villain 3bet with those hands and then triple barrel before then I'm much more inclined to call.

As it is in the hand, we have no reason to believe villain is capable of doing such things and I much prefer a fold.

Dissection:

Pre: BB sqz vs BTN range of random 10z villain = 6% {88+,AJs+,KJs+,AQo+,KQo}
AQo preflop has 45% + IP = call.

Flop: 10z average villain cbet 50% of 6% range or 3%={JJ+,AQs+,KQs,KcJc,AdKc,AhKd,AhKc,AsKd,AsKc,AQ, KQ}
AQo has 51% equity = call.

Turn: 10z average villain cbet all value hands + a few semi-bluff say AKs to make draws pay = {JJ+,AQs+,KQs,AQo,KQo}.
AQo has 46% = call.


River: 10z average villain cbet only best value hands 2% = {JJ+,AQs,AQo}.
AQo has 20% = fold.

Also, for the record, even if villain continues with AKs and KQs it is still more +ev to fold than call.
And one more thing, from my current data base (750k hands) average villain squeeze 3.7% but in this particular situation where the SB flats I think the sqz is more likely about 6%.

Having the A of c reduces a lot of FDs, yet if hes playing so overly aggro I Think TPTK should be in your call down range.. I Would call or fold based on history, how did he play the 52o post flop? Did he triple barrel it or did he checked it down? Did he start betting once he had 2p or better ? Did he have a Sd and Fired when missed ? Are there bet sizing tells ?

Vs this type of opponent hes either very good or very bad so I wouldn't be too concerned playing abc. I Would rather trust on my reads. If he lost a big pot before this hand, I'm definitely calling as he might be on tilt. There arent Many QJ combo's left, he can have AT AK KT QJ AA kk qq JJ + Some random ****, pot odds OTR are saying call..