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My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali

05-31-2015 , 06:22 PM
The Wsop spillover will all play at ph anyway. I will bet you they get at least 3x the entries today on their day one vs aria across the street for the same buyin.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
05-31-2015 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
I think you still owe me from our monster stack over under bet from last year.

I remember discussion but not details. If you are serious, link me and I will pay you if I didn't.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-02-2015 , 02:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
What about merging a turbo flight with others into the same day two Greg.

Also good players who play all the flights eventually do have the advantage of playing extra levels vs weaker players.
Don't think adding a turbo flight is any concern, if they still play down to the same percentage of the starting field for that day.

And a good player isn't going to play all the flights unless he busts them all, or advances with a very short stack, or has no clue about bankroll management. So that doesn't concern me either.

Thanks, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-02-2015 , 06:35 AM
Fyi the turbo flight finished four or five levels past the standard flight.

Of course the avg is the same but variance can be huge
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-02-2015 , 09:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Of course the avg is the same but variance can be huge
"The variance can be huge" is a nonsensical statement where you're conjuring a hypothesis because you think it might be true. You have no proof to back it up, and when presented with facts of how it has played out in reality, you claim "well, I guess it's not true. But only in this instance."

In reality, the standard deviation for online tournaments rises the longer the levels are (should be a "duh" statement) and when normalized against percent of field remaining, is still higher the longer the levels are (but by a smaller margin).
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-02-2015 , 03:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyBizzle
"The variance can be huge" is a nonsensical statement where you're conjuring a hypothesis because you think it might be true. You have no proof to back it up, and when presented with facts of how it has played out in reality, you claim "well, I guess it's not true. But only in this instance."

In reality, the standard deviation for online tournaments rises the longer the levels are (should be a "duh" statement) and when normalized against percent of field remaining, is still higher the longer the levels are (but by a smaller margin).


Ok, then youre fine with one group stopping at 4-8k and another going all the way to 15-30k before merging into day 2?

You cant be serious.

The exact numbers provided by Matt are in the op.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-02-2015 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Ok, then youre fine with one group stopping at 4-8k and another going all the way to 15-30k before merging into day 2?

You cant be serious.

The exact numbers provided by Matt are in the op.
There's a decent reason why Matt has implemented the play-down structure for this kind of event (one with a big guarantee and relatively small buy-in), though I don't think he actually every illuminated that reason in these threads.

I doubt very much he will ever give a reason for including the turbo flight because its likely a pure money grab.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 09:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Ok, then youre fine with one group stopping at 4-8k and another going all the way to 15-30k before merging into day 2?

You cant be serious.

The exact numbers provided by Matt are in the op.
Yes, I am.

I am very serious.

I am aware of the numbers provided by Matt, my question would be, are you? Obviously I can't attempt to figure out the variance in chipstacks across the flights due to not having a complete set of data, but I know you can't either. So how can you claim "the variance can be huge"?
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 02:43 PM
is Aria also running their normal daily tournaments right now? 125 ?
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BillyBizzle
Yes, I am.

I am very serious.

I am aware of the numbers provided by Matt, my question would be, are you? Obviously I can't attempt to figure out the variance in chipstacks across the flights due to not having a complete set of data, but I know you can't either. So how can you claim "the variance can be huge"?


I showed the chart to Kevin macphee while we were playing the limit event yesterday.

He said "wow id have a huge edge playing the turbo flight."

No player should ever have a huge edge by exploiting the format.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
I showed the chart to Kevin macphee while we were playing the limit event yesterday.

He said "wow id have a huge edge playing the turbo flight."

No player should ever have a huge edge by exploiting the format.
This is my favorite Alan argument, where he thinks that conjecture from someone who is something resembling well known makes something a fact, and parlays that into a wild statement of truth.

I repeat my previous statement-in online tournaments, tournaments with longer levels have wider variance in stack sizes compared to tournaments with shorter levels. When adjusted for percent of players remaining, the variance is still larger with longer levels than shorter levels, but by a smaller amount. When you can demonstrate that the previous fact is not true for live tournaments, your argument will have information backing it up. Until that point, your argument is generally heresy.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 07:43 PM
Billy you do realize one flight stopped at 4-8k and the turbo went to 15-30k right?
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-03-2015 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mufasa413
is Aria also running their normal daily tournaments right now? 125 ?
Looks like it has been replaced with a $150 tournament with the prize being a seat in the wpt 500 multiflight tournament. Getting my information from poker atlas. Anyone confirm?
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-10-2015 , 02:37 AM
Attendance has been lackluster so far.

A few tweaks to the rules would have made this event much better.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-11-2015 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Attendance has been lackluster so far.

A few tweaks to the rules would have made this event much better.
I think attendance has been lackluster pretty much everywhere, including your beloved PH. It looks like the rampant proliferation of concurrently-scheduled and similarly-designed tournaments is the likely culprit. Nevertheless, still lots of big guarantees out there, and most of them are being met. If this one has an overlay, it will only be because their ambition was larger than the market reality.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-11-2015 , 06:48 PM
you know a thread is going to be really good when it starts with "mods, please do not delete this thread"
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-11-2015 , 07:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
I think attendance has been lackluster pretty much everywhere, including your beloved PH. It looks like the rampant proliferation of concurrently-scheduled and similarly-designed tournaments is the likely culprit. Nevertheless, still lots of big guarantees out there, and most of them are being met. If this one has an overlay, it will only be because their ambition was larger than the market reality.

Several players have actually thanked me for my analysis of the flaws in the aria setup and said they weren't playing because of that.

On a day where both aria and ph had $500 events going, ph more than doubled their $500k guarantee drawing 2100 players while aria right across the street drew 200 players in their $2m guarantee.

Your argument is flawed
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-11-2015 , 08:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Several players have actually thanked me for my analysis of the flaws in the aria setup and said they weren't playing because of that.

On a day where both aria and ph had $500 events going, ph more than doubled their $500k guarantee drawing 2100 players while aria right across the street drew 200 players in their $2m guarantee.

Your argument is flawed
gee, let which tourney would you play if you were only in vegas for that weekend? PH hands down; Aria you would have to come back in July which is a big turn off even with the big guarantee
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-12-2015 , 06:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
Several players have actually thanked me for my analysis of the flaws in the aria setup and said they weren't playing because of that.

On a day where both aria and ph had $500 events going, ph more than doubled their $500k guarantee drawing 2100 players while aria right across the street drew 200 players in their $2m guarantee.

Your argument is flawed
Lots of events are down compared to last year. And PH is the only place that has missed a guarantee, to my knowledge. That doesn't mean they suck, or anything (despite the constantly shifting nature of their schedule). But you tend to like to cherry-pick your supporting evidence. The two events you brought up are not comparable.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-12-2015 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by akashenk
Lots of events are down compared to last year. And PH is the only place that has missed a guarantee, to my knowledge. That doesn't mean they suck, or anything (despite the constantly shifting nature of their schedule). But you tend to like to cherry-pick your supporting evidence. The two events you brought up are not comparable.
They were the same day same buyin across street from each other

Sent from my SPH-L710 using 2+2 Forums
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06-12-2015 , 09:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
They were the same day same buyin across street from each other

Sent from my SPH-L710 using 2+2 Forums
Lol, the second day of the aria is in a month....some people have no idea if they can be back in Vegas in a month for day 2. Definitely, not a fair comparison.

Maybe their structure is flawed for this event...however, if it's the best way to get the most players than what can you do? I mean I guess I'll just play the turbo flight since people think that gives you the best edge.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-13-2015 , 04:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CanadaPete
Lol, the second day of the aria is in a month....some people have no idea if they can be back in Vegas in a month for day 2. Definitely, not a fair comparison.

Maybe their structure is flawed for this event...however, if it's the best way to get the most players than what can you do? I mean I guess I'll just play the turbo flight since people think that gives you the best edge.
Is that fair to those who qualified in the first 9 heats?
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-13-2015 , 09:22 AM
Describe exactly how the turbo flight gives someone an edge. Is it different? Sure. Is it better? Don't see how particularly.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-13-2015 , 11:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Aces 518
Describe exactly how the turbo flight gives someone an edge. Is it different? Sure. Is it better? Don't see how particularly.


A skilled player can play levels as high as 15-30k to build a stack when other heats ended at 4-8k. Huge edge there.
My opinion on Aria wpt 500 multi flight playdown tournament format also popular in Cali Quote
06-13-2015 , 12:47 PM
That same skilled player also gets less time playing deepstacked against lesser skilled players. They also get less hands overall. That same skilled player is much more likely to have to win some all in flips to make Day 2 than someone playing the nonturbo event.
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