and idk how serious I am about the EV thing

it feels right

like if you and he are equally likely to flip wolf, but if he flips wolf I can clear like 4 people really hard and lock the game and if you flip wolf I can't really

well then it's better to lynch him first right?

and if he's a tiny bit less likely to flip wolf than you and everything else applies then it's probably still right if I can put a reasonable % number out there, right?

idk it's something I'm really only thinking about for the first time properly right now

like the value of the black box lynch compared to the more informational lynch when we're way ahead but we don't have to worry about lynching seers

I dunno, I guess normally it's a fairly moot point

So I was a bit suspicious of telc's post yesterday about, "if lucky flips wolf this looks bad for Timon," but otoh I agree with him on that point, and I like his posting today. I think his suspicion of binkles for saying Mets want the peek is villagery.

And I like his case on Timon and the timing of the lucky vote yesterday.

I think ship could be a wolf for some of the reasons others have stated.

The post from anarchist that hardcore posted, "are you that sure this early," to Jim about lucky -- that looks like seer hunting to me.

Tappo I'm kind of wavering on and kind of just want to how he's a villa here...

*hope he's a villager

Mets is clear, although I do think lucky could have been the peek and Jim was trying not to get killed, but had Mets as clear for pushing lucky. Anyway, Mets is clear.

I believe binkles is a villager too, for some of his posts yesterday, asking others about lucky when Jim was pushing him

Ship

Don't think so. As a wolf, I generally pay more attention to my wolf bros than to the average villager. I also tend to avoid making posts that feel wolfy to me. And if I knew Luckay was a wolf, the sequence where I voted with Luckay and shortly afterward explained why I wasn't voting for him or Annie would have felt wolfy.

I think Ship has five votes on him now. Someone might want to unvote so that there's no "accidental" maj night.

Telco, where in the thread have I tried to get credit for voting luckay? Point me to a post if you find it.

The fact is I didn't like my vote on mets and I did like Jim's case. I said the case was a bit over the top but I never said I didn't like it. You're misinterpreting what I said which in a vacuum can be okay but coupled with your other posts, which I'll respond to next, it seems to me that you have an agenda to get me lynched.

Okay am I seriously the only one who thinks that Felix is a wolf?

SIU

unvote

he is hard to read

he is a great poe candidate at some point

MAJORITY NIGHT on #784 with Binkles, Felix, Globe, LKJ, Mets, and Timon voting for Ship. Stop posting unless you know better.

Not really, I think I said a couple seery things.

(I often don't leave a peek d1 as seer, and have in fact been nk'd n1 as seer without leaving a peek, so...)

It is night.

It's not like I've explained all of these or anything.

Do you have any villager leans? I'll continue reading but all I've seen today is you calling everyone a wolf. It ties into the agenda thing: it looks to me like you are setting up to be able to vote anyone today.

Votes as of post 784
Majority Night.
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
6	ShipItUp	captain binkles (28), El_Timon (19), Felix the Cat (7), globetrotter (22), LKJ (30), metsandfinsfan (27)
3	tappokone	hardcoreufo (14), Anarchist (4), ShipItUp (7)
1	captain binkles	tappokone (46)
1	El_Timon	Telcontar (6)
0	not voting

Please send corrections ASAP.

You just couldn't take having this guy at your party for one second longer. Too much sexual innuendo for your tastes. He was just hitting on everyone in sight, male and female. But was he one of the bad guys?




ShipItUp (Flo Rida's "Whistle") has been lynched. He was a



It is still night.

I was aiming to find his role, ldo. I noticed that his language was quite wishy-washy, found it odd, did some research, found it in line with his last wolf game but different from his last villa game, and asked for outside opinions to reduce confirmation bias.

I even feel vindicated because seers often sound like wolves.

That's about it, really. There was no deeper game going on.

Day will fall at the usual time tomorrow morning.

metsandfinsfan was killed last night.

.

He was Taylor Swift's "All Too Well".

It is day!

Player List:
Anarchist
captain binkles
El_Timon
Felix the Cat
globetrotter
hardcoreufo
LKJ
tappokone
Telcontar

Sorry about the MAJ, guys. That was pretty terrible. Relieved as **** that it at least finished off a wolf.

Also that's a good Taylor Swift song.

The next night will be Sunday at 9:00 P.M.

I think Ufo is the final wolf. Knowing that Ship was a wolf, Ufo's play on day one makes a lot more sense for a wolf. Or, to look at it from a different angle, Ship's behavior makes more sense if he had a partner who was also taking a quixotically level one pro-wolf line. Once you don't give Ufo villager credit for playing the Mets/Jim/Luckay situation non-optimally, what you're left with is a guy who has been really rather wolfy.

There's a sequence right at the end of d1 where Ufo votes Ship that looks clumsily wolf/wolfy. I'll post some quotes in a minute, but the short of it is that Ufo defended Ship a lot right up to a point where it became obvious that some bussing is needed (assuming Luckay/Ship/Ufo wolf team), and then flips his read on Ship with weak reasoning.