I think if we played 1000 games we'd be more or less tied. I credit rungood more than anything for being in 1st at the moment

No way. I need a bunch more village wins in a row before we can let that happen.

LIES

What part of "almost" was unclear?

My plan is to hopefully get this up in 30 minutes, but we'll see.

So - neither lies nor damned lies, but statistics.

Game LL (Cool J)
insanity31
Priptonite
Nicholasp27
inDheart
Gadarene

Game MM (Pie)
xander biscuits
bolt2112
eyebooger
ArcticKnight
PokerCrazy94

Game NN (NN NN NN NN)
iraisetoomuch
D1iabol1cal
True North
Eric
Carl_Spackler

MM (MBop)

The funny thing is I randed the category for this after doing that, & the category is "Music".

My clue is funky.

I'm not going to be able to do threads until tomorrow :/

Clearly, eb is the chameleon. Finally.

There's a 4 in 5 chance that eb will be a villager in any given game. Which means the chances of EB being a villager in all 13 games are 1/(4/5)^13, or approximately 1 in 18. Someone correct me if I'm mistaken.

Here's my question. With 15 players and 12 villagers per round, what are the odds that any one (or more) of us would have been a villager in every game, as opposed to EB specifically?

I suck at this but

Doesn't "every" player (not just EB) have a 1 in 18 chance of being a villager 13 times? And if so, then if you wanted to say what are the odds of a specific player (of 15 players) doing it, then isn't it 1/18 x 1/15 = 270 to 1

That can't be it. The odds of any 1 player being villager every time is more likely than the odds of a specific player out of the 15. Maybe I'll pose this question for the math crowd in another part of 2p2.

Yeah, my bad. Post it in the puzzles thread here....

I think it is 1 in 18 in either case. "Any" player or a "given" player. Just like AA in holdem. Any player has a 1/221 chance and so does a "given" player. But, the odds the 'someone" at the table will have AA is dependent on the number of players at the table. It does not change each player's individual odds though.

So for what you asked, I think the answer is
1/18 for EB
1/18 for any player

How often would it occur that at least one player is villager 13 times in a series? Well that should depend on the number of players.

But, it can't be 15 players/18 (83%). Because if we had 25 players the chance would be greater than 100%. I think this may be into multinomial distribution and I be lost...lol

Pretty sure the way to approach this is that the odds of someone being a villager for 13 games in a row is 5.497%.

Which means that the odds of someone being a villager anything less than 13 times (inclusive or all scenarios) is (1-5.497%) or 94.502%.

Which means that the odds of all of the players being a villager for something less than 13 games would be .94502^15 or ~42%.

Or said differently, there is a 58% chance that with 15 players, at least at least one of them will have been a villager for all 13 games.

That makes sense. Lots of these similar things in TripleChain work from determining the chances that something cant happen, thus leaving the % that it will or could..

This answer feels right to me. I'd have thought that eb's 13 game streak would be an anomoly. But your math is suggesting that it's fairly ordinary (even somewhat likely) that someone would have this streak.

Which begs the question. When will it end?

I mean, at this point it's exactly a 20% chance that it will end each round.
Since we only have 1 person left, and he has a 20% chance to rand chameleon.

Yeah, my last question was kinda rhetorical.

Does the fact that the events are not independent affect this calculation? (i.e. there are no scenarios where all 15 players can be a villager in any given game)

I fell like having exactly 12/15 villagers every time must affect this percentage (even if trivially).

At one point in my life I could have answered this question with a high degree of confidence, but not anymore.

There's an MIT grad who turned into a professional poker player who frequents where I work. Next time I see him I'll run this by him.

It changes the odds that any specific person would be the chameleon. But not that anyone in the aggregate would get that role.

Rank	Prev	Player	Game 1		Game 2		Game 3		Game 4		Game 5		Game 6		Game 7		Game 8		Game 9		Game 10		Game 11		Game 12		Game 13		Total Score	Cham.
1	2	bolt2112	5		25		0		0		25		25		25		5		20	c	5		20		10	c	25		190	2
2	1	Carl_Spackler	5		5		25		0		25		20	c	0		0	c	20	c	25		20	c	25		10	c	180	5
3	3	D1iabol1cal	5		25		5		0		25		20		20	c	25		0		0	c	5		25		5		160	2
4	6T	xander biscuits	5		25		0		0		0		0	c	0		25		25		20	c	5		25		20		150	2
5T	4T	Gadarene	0		5		20	c	20	c	0	c	25		5		25		0	c	25		20	c	0		0		145	5
5T	4T	insanity31	5		0	c	25		20	c	5		25		0		10	c	25		0		25		5		0		145	3
7	6T	Nicholasp27	10	c	0		0		0		20	c	25		25		25		25		0		0		0	c	0		130	3
8T	8	PokerCrazy94	20	c	0		0		20	c	20		5		5		0	c	0		25		25		0		0	c	120	4
8T	9T	True North	5		25		0	c	5		5		25		20		25		0		0		0		5		5		120	1
8T	9T	Eric	0		25		25		0		0		0		0	c	25		0		20	c	0		20	c	5		120	3
8T	13	inDheart	0		10	c	25		5		20	c	0		10	c	25		5		0		0		0		20	c	120	4
12	14	eyebooger	5		25		0		0		5		0		0		25		0		0		0		25		25		110	0
13T	11T	Priptonite	0		25		20	c	0		5		25		0		0		5		25		0	c	0		0		105	2
13T	11T	iraisetoomuch	10	c	0	c	5		0		0		25		5		5		25		0		25		5		0		105	2
15	15	ArcticKnight	5		25		0		0		0		0	c	25		5		0		5		0		5		20		90	1

Game OO
Nicholasp27
bolt2112
insanity31
iraisetoomuch
Gadarene

Game PP
PokerCrazy94
eyebooger
xander biscuits
Priptonite
Carl_Spackler

Game QQ
D1iabol1cal
inDheart
Eric
True North
ArcticKnight