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12-13-2008 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Tzu
I don't think voting ollie really clears anyone at all. It was an obvious bussing situation.
Yeah, maybe. Still, at least earlier in the day I seemed like a pretty "obvious" lynch, so looking at the shift is still interesting.
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12-13-2008 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
zeturd - in case you missed it from my lack of poasts, the ollie wagon took off late after i packed it in for the night, and it's not like i would have been averse to switching had i been about (see also yesterday where i state that i'd basically be gunning for ollie most of the time today)
I believe you were probably AFK, but saying that you wouldn't be averse to switching doesn't mean much unfortunately. Nor the fact that you'd be gunning for ollie should I turn up villager. As a wolf, you'd know that I'd turn up villager, and bussing ollie after that seems reasonable.
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12-13-2008 , 01:56 PM
Still, 64 going so hard for me as he did at various points yesterday (especially that post where he lists various stuff that made me wolfy on D2) would take a lot of balls for a wolf to do, and while I think some wolves certainly could do it, it's not what I associate with 64's wolf game. Not sure how much weight to give it, but I'm thinking quite a bit.
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12-13-2008 , 02:21 PM
Zeturd, soah, and 64 are all wolves.

Thanks for spewing.
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12-13-2008 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Tzu
Zeturd, soah, and 64 are all wolves.

Thanks for spewing.
so i'd basically cleared you because of the mike kill, now you make this kind of horrible read post?
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12-13-2008 , 02:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
so i'd basically cleared you because of the mike kill, now you make this kind of horrible read post?
wtf is wrong with you?
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12-13-2008 , 02:31 PM
i don't know really. i assume you have noticed that there are just two wofls left, yes?
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12-13-2008 , 02:34 PM
sixfour - zeturd
sun tzu - zeturd
rake16 - zeturd

Then...

Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
Re-reading ollie, this post feels strange. When Ollie had posted in the thread Tuesday, there had been some lynch epi talk prior to that, but at that time FCBL was ahead of epi in the voting. KM had even posted a count right before ollie was posting. And Ollie had not mentioned epi when he was posting d2.

To jump in the next day and claim you thought epi would be lynched, when that was not even clear, and you yourself did nothing to help the cause feels like you are trying to claim credit for knowign epi was wolf after the fact.

So ollie, why did you think epi was being lynched d2?
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
Ollie.

Sixfour - What posts of mine do you think were wolfy? Also, can you explain why you voted fcbl d2 over epi after having defended fcbl d1 and d2. I know you made a post saying it looked like fcbl might be bussing rake, but was there anything more?

KKC - Who do you think we should wagon today?
His justification for voting ollie seems fair enough. But it's almost as if he isn't aware of the dynamics of the thread. There are three people voting me, and he doesn't even mention that when voting ollie? And even though the vote seems rational enough in terms of justification it's not something he's pushing. In a way, it seems more like a 'pressure vote' to get ollie to answer his questions. Which, come to think of it, is a little villagery.

That said, both posts feel wolfy on tone to me. There's this thin veneer of faux curiosity in the way he's phrasing his questions. Kinda like he's more interested in asking the questions, rather than getting them answered.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I still have a bunch of players I think are villagers. Ollie is not one of them, and I want to pressure him a little. Also I want to get others reactions to my post about him.

ZT is a good vote. Mostly by process of elimination.

I think soah, KKC, rake and 64 have been villagery on tone all game, although as mentioned, I would like to hear 64's explanation of the fcbl vote.

FCBL seems clear due to how epi died. VR is the most likely peek. Sun gets village points for mike's death.

Aard, who knows? I could not argue against his lynch, and would vote him before all the people in the preceding 2 paragraphs.
Again, the way he just briefly mentions me like I'm not the main topic of the conversation at that point (what with being the top wagon) is odd. Process of elimination? Really, that's all you had on me at the time?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
[Manually edited in the quoted posts]

"Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
wait, cancel that, fcbl i don't want to call a sure villager yet

"Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
fcbl is nowhere near a lock villager. i'm leaning villager fairly strongly, but to call him a lock is ridic"

"Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
tone. that's basically all you can go off on d1 unless someone's contradicted themselves straight away or something. he did make one post that i thought was bad which is why i downgraded him"

"Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
exactly one, or at least? fcbl's vote earlier had a tone of "i'm not afraid of bussing rake, honest" about it imo"



The first two posts are from d1 and the others are d2. It struck me as strange that you had defended fcbl to some degree, and had not mentioned epi, and then voted fcbl. I hope you see how this looks, given that epi is wolf, and fcbl is a very likely villager.

Either way, I thought it wold have been pretty obvious that I was not trying to link you to fcbl. My point was that you made a vote that had the effect of saving a wolf, when your posts prior to that looked like you thought fcbl was village.

And I did mention you had made that post.
The slightly odd thing here is that Aries himself voted FCBL on D2. It's been mentioned more than once that there's likely to be a wolf among the FCBL voters before epi claimed. That happens to be me, 64 and Aries. If Aries thinks I'm being lynched that day (and he's certainly not fighting it) he'll pretty much know that 64/Aries is likely to be on the table the day after. The exchange does feel a little like he's preemptively started the battle. 64's reaction feels pretty villagery.

I also think that if Aries=wolf he's pretty much spewed FCBL=villa by now, unless he's engaging in some very tricky leveling.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
My point, which I have tried to articulate a couple times, is that fcbl gets lynched there a lot. Especially when epi leaves early, with his vote on fcbl. And the fact that epi would not know if fcbl would be back to defend himself. (I believe 100% that fcbl was being honest with his estimate that he would be gone for the day). That puts a lot of pressure on the other two wolves to get fcbl off the hook, which risks outting them. Your scenario is possible, but not likely.
I was too busy defending myself at the time to really think about this.

Is FCBL really more likely to be lynched when epi is voting him? That's just odd to me. It should be the other way around. I know I argued that lynching FCBL was fine since I was pretty much totally wrong about epi, but I mean, I don't think epi could assume that I'd be his champion after he claimed, lol. "Playing by the book", we shouldn't lynch epi or anyone he's voting for, so in reality it works the other way. Don't know what to make of it though.

Also, this reminds me that Aries should answer the question I posted to him right before/after night yesterday. Why did he vote FCBL on D2 (Tuesday) knowing that FCBL probably wouldn't be around much, if at all?

Aries leaves for the day with some critical posts directed towards ollie which I guess is slight villa points since it might have helped flip the balance a little, but the posts do not read like they couldn't have been written by a wolf, and they were made after ollie made that horrible post of his where he was evaluating zhaorx' chance of being a wolf and my D1. Btw, ollie going 75% wolf on me there, what with me/ollie being the two wagons, looks pretty good for me I think. Odd that he didn't vote me though.
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12-13-2008 , 02:34 PM
I be around later type out my thoughts, (sneak preview: vote zeturd) but to 64:

I resent the implication that I woudl only call majority if it suits my interests in winning this game. You can believe it or not, but I would never angleshoot like that. Never.

Havent read past that post.

Glad to hear from you KM. Hope power comes back soon.
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12-13-2008 , 02:34 PM
sixfour,

I think/hope Sun was joking...
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12-13-2008 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I be around later type out my thoughts, (sneak preview: vote zeturd) but to 64:
Now that's an interesting crosspost.

What do you think about 64 today Aries?
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12-13-2008 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I resent the implication that I woudl only call majority if it suits my interests in winning this game. You can believe it or not, but I would never angleshoot like that. Never.
not referring to that in my initial post. referring to zeturd tipping the balance, "not" noticing that it majoritied ollie
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12-13-2008 , 03:06 PM
Sorry, 64. reading in a hurry. I saw my name and "faking the majoryt post". My bad.
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12-13-2008 , 03:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZeTurd
OK, so obviously Ollie voters look a little better, and other/non-voters a little worse. Since I know I'm villager that goes for sixfour too (seeing as I was the other 'viable' wagon for most parts of the day.)

However, Ollie was being so bizarre though that I'm not sure any rational wolf team would go to great lengths to save him. Still, soah made a very, very important ollie vote since it put him ahead (I need to go back and look at the voting since the official one wasn't correct, but at least it appeared to be a very important vote), and soah being soah has a lot of influence, so he knows his vote might influence other players. Only reason for him to vote ollie there as a wolf is to 'superclear' himself, and I'm not sure he'd want to do that anyway as him not being NK'ed by F3 for instance would be suspicious in itself. Add to that, he has to deal with me for another day, heh. I was obviously starting to come around on him yesterday, but I'd like to think he'd rather try to get me out of the game as a wolf, and I don't think it'd cost him all that much to keep up his pressure on me. He'd just go "yeah, it was his own damned fault" today and everybody would be fine with it.

So soah is a villager.

Aries probably gets the least amount of villa points for voting ollie. I'll have to go back to read it a little more closely, but I think Aries made the first ollie vote while softly defending me at the same time. What's important is that he didn't really try to fight my lynch / promote ollie's lynch, seemed more like he was distancing himself from the whole thing. At that point, I think my lynch looked kinda inevitable with 3 quick votes on me to start the day, so it's not like he thinks he has to spearhead my lynch at that point if he's a wolf.

I'm probably voting Aries.

I have to reconsider 64 a little bit since he did vote me, and Aries did vote ollie, so I can't really completely neglect the L1 explanation that 64 is the wolf out of the two (and it feels like there has to be at least one.)

Aard voting ollie is encouraging too. He's not the bussing type. Would still like to hear some more from him though.
I made a post about the wolfy ollie post the day before. I asked anyone for opinions about olie. No one was really responding for most of the day. Besides, you shoud know I not one to scream my beliefs from the rooftop.
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12-13-2008 , 03:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sun Tzu
Zeturd, soah, and 64 are all wolves.

Thanks for spewing.
This would be tough. I would bet $ at least one of those 3 is village.
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12-13-2008 , 03:13 PM
ZT - I think 64 has been good on tone all game. I disagree with him that you are a bad vote today, and that I am a good one, obv.
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12-13-2008 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I made a post about the wolfy ollie post the day before. I asked anyone for opinions about olie. No one was really responding for most of the day. Besides, you shoud know I not one to scream my beliefs from the rooftop.
OK, last part there is kinda true, but you still seemed a little too detached to the whole thing yesterday anyway.

Anyway, so I gather you want everybody to vote me today judging from your earlier post. Yesterday, I was a good lynch mostly by "process of elimination."

Since then, I've made quite a few posts and we were both voting ollie yesterday. I take it you've got something more than "process of elimination" then?
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12-13-2008 , 03:16 PM
I dont think village ZT would play 'yesterday' like he did. It seemed pretty obvious that it would be zt or ollie. ZT never pointed a finger at ollie, even when ollie had made some really bad posts and was the competing wagon. Instead he triedd to push a me wagon. I think village zt would be much more likely to try to get ollie lynched over someone with no votes. ZT's actions look like a wolf trying to protect another wolf.
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12-13-2008 , 03:16 PM
sweet timing there.
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12-13-2008 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
ZT - I think 64 has been good on tone all game. I disagree with him that you are a bad vote today, and that I am a good one, obv.
What was the aim of going after him yesterday for the way he voted FCBL then?
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12-13-2008 , 03:20 PM
I also feel your defenses yesterday were weak. You made a couple psots about how well you had played in the other game, which while true, dont have any bearing on this game. Reading the soah psot with your posts, (while admitte4dly a little unfair with the crackig the game boxes) it seems like your only defense is that epi wold not claim there if you are a wolf. I think you and epi are both good enough that you could use this toclear yourself.
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12-13-2008 , 03:21 PM
Dont think I went after him. I questioned him, true, but that was the one thing I thought fely funny from 64 all game. Was that yesterday, my days are running together.
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12-13-2008 , 03:22 PM
anywway, lunch time. hopefully be back in a couple of houts. Might not though.
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12-13-2008 , 03:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I dont think village ZT would play 'yesterday' like he did. It seemed pretty obvious that it would be zt or ollie. ZT never pointed a finger at ollie, even when ollie had made some really bad posts and was the competing wagon. Instead he triedd to push a me wagon. I think village zt would be much more likely to try to get ollie lynched over someone with no votes. ZT's actions look like a wolf trying to protect another wolf.
That's absurd.

I immediately commented ollie's post and highlighted the part where he was talking about my D1. You think I quoted that just for fun?

Further, I was in the process of assembling my thoughts and spent most of the time defending myself. I was pretty clear in voting ollie, and I was one of the first to go hard after him in my long writeup post.

You'd actually have a better argument if you said I was bussing him or something, but defending him? That's just wrong.
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12-13-2008 , 03:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AriesRam
I also feel your defenses yesterday were weak. You made a couple psots about how well you had played in the other game, which while true, dont have any bearing on this game. Reading the soah psot with your posts, (while admitte4dly a little unfair with the crackig the game boxes) it seems like your only defense is that epi wold not claim there if you are a wolf. I think you and epi are both good enough that you could use this toclear yourself.
Why didn't you mention this yesterday?

Did it just come to you today? All I could see you writing about me yesterday was that I was good lynch by "process of elimination".
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