The slowly dwindling population of POGGLESBURG slept uneasily that night, hoping against hope that the night would pass uneventfully...












Their hopes were dashed.


manupod has been killed - He was the ANGEL


Aaronk56's Son lynched d2
atakdog
bobman0330
BrownEyedGirl killed n3
E.Starhouse lynched d4
FCBL lynched d1
HerbieGRD
iggymcfly killed n1
m1ke
manupod killed n4
Nicholasp27
sixfour killed n2
Sun Tzu lynched d3
voyamatarte
well named
Xxsooted
zhaorx



IT IS DAY.

herbie!

hit us seer one more time

No time right now for a long writeup.

Well Named is one of us.

Damn it -- if wolves had hit manupod's prtection, we had a lock. Now, we have decisions to make.

I assume herbie's running silent yesterday is good evidence he's fone into spewless mode, but even so, tomorrow will be tricky.

atakdog -- seer
bobman -- god, I hope so
herbie -- has to be evil at this point
m1ke
nicholas -- good
voya -- non-participant; probably should have peeked him
well named -- good
XXsooted
Zhaorx


Tomorrow:

bobman
m1ke
nicholas
voya
well named
XXsooted
Zhaorx

Two wolves among four, one miss allowed. Run good.

Don't let an unconfirmed affect the lynch in any way, including not spilling your thoughts about teh second to let them affect it with the night kill, and you get it right unless you choose precisely the wrong two. We should win 5/6 of the time here, more if you find some combinations that can't exist.

If herbie's not a wolf, it's tough. If bobman is, I concede -- but nich, look at it again. The principal clearer of bobman was herbie.

Herbie also worked really hard to save Z.

herbie almost certainly has to be a wolf if bobman is clear.

Haven't had my coffee yet... but my calculations above are wrong. It's a 50/50 game right now, if herbie is wolf and bobman is village.

Again, a reminder: no one who may be night killed tomorrow night (meaning Nich and Well Named, and probably bob) publish his thoughts about kill order. Everyone else, talk, talk, talk. But...

No one who is not confirmed should be allowed to affect the lynch. If the four cleareds today decide to lynch you, you're dead. If the three cleareds yesterday decide to lynch you, you're dead. And so on the next day... and if it gets to final three, we know what happens.

Z should really unvote here, frankly.

To clarify: the reason is that we cannot be divided, lest the wolves execute a mislynch. It is worth it to them to get one mislynch in exchange for one wolf, if that wolf was more likely than average to be lynched... and obviously once we're at mustlynch at 3/2, no wolf can be allowed to participate.

Analysis out loud, but no conclusions other than the current lynch, please.

I've been re-reading some bobman, he looks pretty good.

So the zhaorx analysis-by-wagons looks like herbie, but my gut wants to lynch mike. I'm not sure what the best way to reconcile this.

Incidentally, I peeked bobman because of the one-of-herbie-and well named, one-of-well named-and Z, and both of herbie and well named arguments. We'll need to hear from voya about that argument that village WN --> wolf Z.

I suggest every villager go through and try every combination that works.

herbie+m1ke+voya
herbie+mike+XX
herbie+m1ke+Z
herbie+voya+XX
herbie+voya+Z
herbie+XX+Z
m1ke+voya+XX
m1ke+voya+Z
m1ke+XX+Z
voya+XX+Z

We also need, every one of us, to go reread bobman to make sure. Again, herbie is the first one to call him clear, but what I saw on my reread wa sthat he never pushed anyone hard ina wolfy way. I think bobman pushes people around a lot more when he's a wolf.

unvote

ok i'll kick back and watch

Further clarification: for the unconfirmeds, there aren't nearly as many combos to consider. You need to make the case to the confirmeds that the combos with you don't work, and/or that one or more combos without you do.

For the confirmeds, it's OK rat this point to consider people one at a time.

And because I'm clearly dead tomorrow, it's fine for me to say what I think. Without having reread looking for it, I'd pick m1ke as the next lynch, particularly because he kind of did what herbie did -- take advantage of the recent seer action to avoid spewing, or so it would seem.

before a reread i think m1ke and herbie are both wolves almost aways here....m1ke linking to wolfing strategy before villa strategy when talking to a wolf is pretty damning

LOL WTF

sorry but this is not my wolf game
herbie and xxsooted are wolves 100%

I didnt even vote yetserday,

im probably glued to the game as a wolf

cripes


XXsooted and Herbie are the wolves 100% here,

I STRONGLY ENCOURAGE killing one of them

This thread is not long, so everyone should reread it. Pending a reread though, I feel very comfortable about who we need to lynch.

extra

LOL WTF

for emphasis


this is worse than scott howards rule of odd posts


i've known e star house fora long time. the order of which i link him threads is pretty abritrary, just trying to help him out

LOL WTF

i have no clue who it is among Z bobman and Voya,

I will reread today and sherlock these cats

i was the FIRST person to call out herbie for playing the way he did

WHY WOULD I EVER OUT ARGUABLY THE STRONGEST PLAYER IN THE GAME AS W/W

I't's just plain ******ed on my part. I have been for lynching herbie all game. im not that egotistical to think that i gain a massive edge with my uber sik skills by outing herbie

cripes

Of course, we don't know herbie's role yet, but on the assumption he's wolf, we really do need to consider all his interactions.

Herbie invested a ton of capital in the sun lynch -- it is the biggest reason he's likely to die today. Why? M1ke is right that herbie would generally be considered the strongest player in the game -- he's without question the strongest of those who are still possible wolves. Why out himself over sun -- was it just that sun had him pegged, or was there more?

Did ES say anything that helps us? he was playing very carefully.

Does it say anything about XX that he seeemd to be following me at times? ES did the same -- would they each have done it as wolves? (Recall there was no n0 chat.)

Z -- I wasn't saying just sit out -- we just can't let unconfirmeds drive any lynches. We need all your input. In particular, unconfirmed vilalgers need to explain as clearly as possible why they think they're clear -- voting early is anti-village (starting tomorrow), but we need everyone's contribution.

Bobman is right that this isn't a long game. Reread it. Everyone.

Damn, I want us to win this one.

This is a decent argument, if true. (I haven't checked.)

Calm down. You're not being lynched today; there's time to clear yourself if you're one of the guys. But show us. No one trusts anyone; show us. When exactly did you go after herbie, and how hard? We have to judge when herbie decided he would sacrifice himself, and when he probably would have told his packmates that it was safe to go after him.

We need to believe that he thought BEG really was the angel, and that he expected not to lose a tempo with the n0 kill. He probably thought he'd be locking the game up if he could leave just one wolf alive -- that night, for sure, he'd have planned it that way, but beforehand it's harder to judge.

^^ should say "... if you're one of the good guys."

I owe everyone, particularly Manupod, this one...


The oracle strode once more to the scene of a grisly murder. He tried his best to keep his head high and his step light, for he knew how important it was that the villagers not lose heart, but in truth his shoulders sagged a little, and his step was the careful pace of one who is weary but wishes not to show it.

There lay what was left of Manupod. Much of his body was that of an ordinary villager, but from out of his tattered blouse, shredded by alien claws, peeked gleaming white feathers, their pure sheen not marred but somehow greatened by the crimson drops with which they were spattered. He had kept them hidden always in life, but now in death Manupod was revealed for what he had always been: an angel.

When he lived, Manupod had been oft beset by those who doubted him; twice he had come close to the gallows steps himself, for oft was he falsely accused of the wickedest of crimes. True, there had been those who believed in him -- and Brown Eyed Girl had even sacrificed herself so he might live another day -- but most of the rest had cast aspersions upon his character, even as he had held true. Even he, the oracle, had stated aloud that he doubted Manupod's true character, for he had known that only by so doing could he convince the nocturnal beasts to go astray, but it had pained him to do it for he knew how troubled Manupod was, how unappreciated he felt. It was necessary, but it had hurt.

Too, the oracle knew what had transpired that night: the very fact that it was Manupod who lay before him, rather than he himself before Manupod, was the proof: Manupod's last act had been to protect not himself but the village seer, even while knowing that the most likely victim that night was not the seer, but himself. He had chosen, and chosen with the purest of intentions and using the greatest of wisdom, and for that choice he had died.

The oracle turned away, knowing that he had only a few hours to live before he too finally fell to the wolves' assault. Now there was none left to protect him; now they could come for him without fear that their murderous designs would be stymied by angelic wards. Until now they had not so much as trod near his own shack, but the time had come; there would be no more visions in his head, only the sight of the claws and fangs that would rip him apart as we watched not through a mystical portal but with his very eyes. All that was left for him to do was hope that his inevitable murder would be avenged, along with those of Manupod, Brown Eyed Girl, SixFour, Iggy, Matrix, and anyone else who fell, and along with the deaths of those who had been wrongly accused -- FCBL, AaronK56's Son, and Sun Tzu -- in the village's collective confusion since the first body had been found.

And so they would -- they would avenge the deaths, for they had to. This was their task; they owed it to their village, and to those who had fallen before them. They would defeat the monsters. They would...

Rest in peace, he thought -- rest in peace, all of you. We shall avenge you. The village shall live on, and we shall never forget.

Finally he spoke, but his words were anticlimactic, for he had only knowledge that by then the rest had guessed:

In the night, I have seen another soul, another that is pure and good. Never shall you entertain thoughts that Well Named is one of those who beset us, for he is of nothing but the purest heart; he is a villager.

Go thee now, and find the marauders; find them and banish them from this Earth. I will leave you tonight, of that I am certain, but I will be with you in spirit, as too will those who have gone before.

***

manupod is crying ,not because he's dead, but because that was beautiful.

***

so there's 3 wolves from xx/voya/bobman/herbie/m1ke

i may have to investigate bobman now.