No. With a shapely minimum, running from 2NT is something he may need to do.

With a GF hand, he has to find another bid.

KJ9xx x KQ9xx Kx. That hand opens 1S, rebids 2D, and signs off in 3D. You make 2NT just about never.

Or make it a 5=0=5=3 10 count. Or 11, if you never open 10s.

For argument's sake, are you punting 3N with:

KQ9xx / Jx / AKQxx / x

Exactly, this is why I was telling you you'll want to get very familiar with the scoring, Nich. A vuln game only needs to be approximately ~40% success rate for it to make sense to bid. Non-vuln as foxtrot said should be ~50+%. Of course during the bidding most of the time you're not going to know the precise % of success rate until the dummy goes down, so there's some guesswork. Once you get fam with the scoring methods you can make better expected outcome decisions. I once made a basic chart of the %s, and here it is. These %s represent breaking even. Fortunately most of them are repetitive so it's pretty easy to remember.

Red
G: 40%
SS: 50%
GS: 55%

White
G: 50%
SS: 50%
GS: 56%

I think I would think about bidding 3S, which is forcing.

Then, after thinking about it, I wouldn't do it — I need better spades. So I bid 3H, telling pard I'm forcing to game, lying about my shape by only one card (this shows 5=3=4=1 most of the time), and expressing doubt about strain. If he takes preference to 3S, I'll follow with 3NT, fully clarifying things. If he bids 3NT I'll trust him. He shouldn't go to the four level without it being right — in particular, I don't think he can do it without a fourth heart, and even then I'm not sure what hand it can be. 2=4=2=5, I guess, but that hand should still take preference to 3S, trusting me to give him a chance to show delayed hearts. And in any case I will correct 4H to 4S, unless I'm playing that as kickback.

Edit: never mind, spades is a first bid suit so it's never kickback.

Imperfect. I may be missing something.

Note that these, in particular the game figures, involve some assumptions about the likelihood of going down more than one, and the likelihood of being doubled. But they're good rules of thumb.

40% still isn't enough

i thought it was only 33% and I still didn't want it

i can't go 3H there after 2d because I DON'T want game 80+% of the time
i can't go 4H there after 2nt because I DON'T want game 80+% of the time

my pard told me his info: 5+h and 8-9 points...from that info, I can deduce that we aren't making game 80%+ of the time, so I went 3H instead of 4H

I'm all for lagging it up, but here it didn't make sense


HCP/8+ trump fit are proxies for figuring out "can we make 10 tricks if trump is x?"

They worked great for communicating the info to me. But at the end of the day, I can look at my hand and see we aren't getting 10 tricks unless he has a lot of help.

You can do that on any hand, but the more bidding communication, the more you can narrow down pard's hand to determine how likely it is that their hand works with yours to get to 10 tricks

Yeah, I'd take it as that type of pattern. Of course if responder has any kind of support for spades or diamonds (i.e. Ax), 3N isn't such a bad contract since we'll have a source of tricks. I'm assuming the 2N bid was ~ 11 HCP. So opener has described his hand well, now responder should be able to make the final say on whether 3N has play or not.

Strongly disagree. After 2D, you have no idea what's going on. Partner is the captain. You are just supposed to answer questions when asked. The answers you give are systemic.

I'd accept the game try with your hand actually, but it's close.

So let's assume its worst case and he only has 8 HCP and not 9.

AJ92 KT72 AK2 72

Say he has

Q10x Axxxx Qxx xx

I think you'd want to be in game if this is his hand.

Say he has this:

xxx AQxxx Qxx xx


Now it's tougher as you need to avoid 2 spade losers, but still has a decent chance of play if the 10S is onsides

And of course it's most likely he isn't short in clubs, so he may have something like this:

xx AQxxx xx Qxxx


Most 8HCP hands I can picture game isn't really that dire of a contract. It's a very close call. Since he may have 9 HCP, and with 8 its close for me, I'd bid game.

This may be true (I doubt it, but I'll humor it), but a lot of the time you don't want game, you may not even make 3H! But that's okay, because by bidding 3H you completely obstruct the opponents from finding a contract that they can make.

Give partner a truly awful hand opposite your 1NT opener:

xx Jxxxx xx xxxx.

We lose two spades, two clubs, no diamonds, and either one or two heart tricks. We'll go down one or two tricks.

However, on this same layout, the opponents lose zero spades, zero or one hearts, two diamonds (and probably a ruff for three), and zero clubs. They can actually make 4 spades a lot of the time, and the times they only make three spades are the times you go down one in three hearts. That means, basically regardless of what partner has, it's better to be in a nine card trump fit at the three level than defending against whatever contract they can make. (It's not necessarily better than being in 2H, of course, but it's a lot easier to back into the bidding over 2H than it is over 3H.)

Assuming partner knows what your 1NT bid means, they won't be misled by your 3H call into thinking you have more than you do, and they'll only bid game if it's right. (With 9 points and a known 9 card trump fit, I'm bidding game every time and expecting it to make more often than not, even if partner has a random 15 point 1NT with four hearts. That ninth trump means a LOT.)

Yeah, don't like superaccept with 15. Any one of the 3 missing queens would make it 17, and would be extremely useful.

I guess with Nichs hand he could bid 3d after 2nt. If he had 2 hearts he either bids 3nt or passes. So I would guess 3d would have to be a game try in hearts with some stuff in diamonds. Then since my diamonds suit was xxx I stop at 3h. But if he had bid 3c showing some stuff in clubs, I bid 4h since my suit is Kx.

Once you know you have a fit (which is when partner bids 3H, either the first time or the second), the hand is worth more than 9 points, and you should always bid game, IMO.

anyone want to play at some point in the next few hours?

i'm hoping to be able to play in 1.5 hours

I'll be on in an hour or so.

From last night's team game (MP's):

r/r and you have a 9-2 lead with two boards left to play.

opponents are playing inverted minors.

in 4th seat you are holding:

AJT85
T8765
A
87

auction goes 1d-p-3d-

Thoughts?

It depends on who's on your left. If it's an aggressive non-expert, he probably will not sell out to four of a major if you sell it, fearing a double game swing hand. You may be reasonably safe (over) bidding 4D.

The safer call is double, though. Partner should not leave this in unless it's quite clear. He probably has four diamonds, but they need to be decent ones before he will pass, and obviously your trump ace will not be a disappointment in that case. Most of the time he will try 3M, opps will compete to 4D, and your partner will get to make the decision.

Note that your partner's most likely shape is 2=3=4=4 or 3=2=4=4, so nothing is all that safe. If you're quite unlucky he'll be 2=2=4=5, but 4C will never get doubled. If you do risk 4D, the latter hand will be a bloodbath, but even then they may not find a double — that's why it depends on your opponents, particularly opener.

Incidentally, this was not an MP game. This was IMPs.

Agree with X in hindsight (at our table, I bid 3S; Nich passed at his), and 2 world class players differed on what to bid with the other hand over X.

edit: but this is a good problem hand imo, and actually so is what to do with pard's hand after X.

I was just thinking about this myself.

Assuming the auction is now 1d-p-3d-X-p-

And you hold:



What's your bid? Personally this is a situation where I have almost no idea.

That's a disgusting hand. Nothing is right!

I think I like overbidding 4D, followed by 3S and pass in some order I haven't decided yet. I dislike double, because I think partner's going to disappoint us a lot by bidding clubs.

I'd rather overbid because 1) I really want to get to the right strain here, and the four or five level will probably be right (sometimes as a save, sometimes as a make), and 2) in case we have a double fit, I really want partner to know about it so we don't sell out to 5D. Picture some 3-4-2-4 hand opposite.

I for sure bid 3nt if Wyman doubles

The problem is you need 8 tops + the DK. Maybe 9 tops on a non-D lead if the DA is wrong.

You're putting a helluva lot of cards in my hand for that.

(Of course, it turns out I have the DA, but....)