I'm not sure how majority lynch would affect wanting to see if there was a town vs town lynch.

The first thing I note is that with two hours before the deadline, we had a third viable wagon, namely Lawrence. Removing the two main wagons themselves (who voted each other in self-defense), we're left with Nick, Gamer Dude, CalledDownLight, and dils as players who weren't on the two main wagons until they became the two late wagons at the end. Additionally, DWetzel actually flipped from one wagon to the other.

This is a good place to look for reads because it's at the end of the day, which requires more thinking on your feet and thus makes it harder to make a "genuine" move. Townies often will let their intuition guide them to the right choice if they need to make a late move. Mafia obviously can't do the same because their "intuition" isn't telling them $hit, they already know the answers. All else being the same, and assuming the players are online for EOD, players whose EOD moves are consistent with what they've been saying prior to making the late moves are town; players whose EOD moves are inconsistent are scum; and players who don't move at all are scum. The first two are obvious, the last one is derived from (a) the initial observations above (namely that scum can't genuinely react to EOD moves; the obvious play then is not to move at all) and (b) the fact that staying on a third party ensures your vote doesn't affect the lynch and therefore implies that you aren't concerned with the outcome of the lynch result (typically a mafia trait).

Nick first, because I already talked about him earlier. He wasn't here for the collapse of his wagon due to IRL interference. The lack of a late move isn't incriminating here because he wasn't here to move. He's still not looking good, but that's because he didn't campaign hard at all for his candidate to get lynched when it did matter, not because of this.

Next is Gamer Dude, who moved from Lawrence to sjg. He actually voted for sjg prior to voting for Lawrence, and he ended up on sjg, so that's pretty consistent. I'm confused by what GD means by "appeasing the mass of cultures" but I think it's a shoutout to the earlier part in his post where he says he doesn't normally like to vote until EOD. He voted for Lawrence but didn't really push it or try to recruit people to join him, which is odd considering the lynch was actually viable; and while he promised a reread of Wombat there's no explicit acknowledgment that it happened, simply this last-minute check-in to reconfirm that he suspected sjg more. We had a talk during the last ~12 hrs or so of the turn though and I didn't get an insincere vibe from him. Based on the data I say null here, from what I remember of our interaction while this data was being generated, slight town.

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lunch break frends then I will finish this post

'Member that fluff posting you were talking about? ^^^ Here's an example.

I just want to say that the forum I come from we play PR mafia and rarely has a vanilla game ever showed it's face. So less emphasis is put on post analysis and people tend to rely more on abilities/write-up analysis.


Aside from that WHERE'S SHILLS2.0 ?

pres eden, same to you. talk to all of us that are here. you can catch up later.

I'm wondering if Pres is ever going to make some reads based on all this analysis.

CDL, Moocher, talk to me about mechanics a bit

The wolves have to have some kind of killing power besides the NK, right? We're gonna be here until June if they don't.

thats fair and I am sure that this game will have its share of moments like that too, but in the meantime we can get analysis in 50 words not 500. what do you think of the fact that phelant refuses to talk to anyone who is itt and keeps making posts about people who he knows cant reply right away?

and obviously we have some killing power because wolves are killing System Overlord n1 roughly never

I thought so, but if they do where is it? I mean, its possible there are like 7 weakish wolves (6 with meh roles and a JOAT who we got n1) and nothing else. I wouldn't have designed it that way, but its possible. I would have either put a wolf poisoner, half/full vig, or some kind of conditional/3x vig in the game as a mod.

I guess the one other possibility if that the wolves are all from forums with the weird "vigs shouldnt shoot n1 meta" and they think there is value in the wolves also holding shots, but it is kinda hard for me to think anyone could ever come to that conclusion even with a 3x vig or something.

I'd be happy to clear up the few holes there. You're bang on with the appeasing the mass of cultures thing. My shift from SJG to Lawrence to SJG was, as I believe I mentioned, I had Lawrence > SJG as a wolf. BUT I still thought SJG to be scummy as well. When the lawrence wagon was obviously not gased up enough to keep up with the other 2 I hoped over to SJG because I had SJG > Wombat as a wolf.

I did in fact re read and nothing changed my stance on him, so if you were looking for a conclusion post I'm sorry I opted out. Basically I had a town lean on Wombat because he seemed like he had a town motive and his tone was good in my eyes. However I wasn't comfortable enough with him to try and persuade others off his wagon.

oh yea, thats a given. I am guessing its a full vig or even better two half vigs and wolves lucked into an angel/rb last night. If they lucked into a RB or if the vig didnt fire and they RB'd someone then I would expect that someone to die tonight.

Agreed but we may have people that have intercepted a kill so I'm uncomfortable speculating about it right now, we'll get there eventually.

I'll answer that but first ITT is one of the few acronyms I'm unfamiliar with so help me out with that first.

Fact: Wombat was a townie who was lynched with 11 votes. Are you really telling me that you think it is a more likely scenario that there are no scum votes on that wagon than that there are scum votes on that wagon? Is that what you're seriously trying to suggest to me? It is clearly more likely that there are scum votes on Wombat than that there aren't

I'm reading it and I care. I looked in good detail at djarm, Wombat and Lawrence yesterday outside of my lists, which were only the starting point of my analysis. Do you dispute this?

pres eden, I dont agree with you that wolves cant make logically consistent and/or proper votes at eod, especially with how slow that eod developed. I have been a wolf and made great great great votes at eod (like literally where I vote 2 different wagons at :00) when wagons were flipping all over the place and I had no time to consult other wolves much less even read all the posts being made. I give 0 credit to anyone for making a logically consistent vote at eod yesterday.

From my experience it is a very rare occurrence.

in this thread

I see that point of view

sure there are probably scum votes on his wagon, but whether it is 1 or 5 there is really no way to know. ironically, the best way to get any more clarity on this would be for you to die.

which is fair, but I have played over 110 games and over 50 of them have probably been ones with 40+ players (including several over 75) and I am telling you that it is the case and not at all out of the norm.

I will stipulate that it is "more likely" if you'll stipulate that it's stupid to assume that they will be scattered in the specific ways you suggest, given that the wolves supposedly don't give a crap who gets lynched between you and Wombat but do have interest in concealing themselves

The point is that you spent more time going after people for "doubting jcohen", while people were actually checking out his case, than you did discussing the rest of the game. It doesn't add anything to the game. It was weird then, and it's still weird now, especially when one of the people doubting jcohen yesterday was sjg11, who you defended like mad. It's awful to doubt the claim straight after it's made, but it's good to doubt it more than 48 hours after?

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I believe it's a pertinent question, and would like you to answer it.

1. Read post 3398 and tell me I haven't made a case on Lawrence.

2. You're not my second most likely wolf, don't twist what I say when I never said it, my voting analysis is telling me you're an interesting player with regards to connections. I'm currently unsure about your alignment but you're top of my re-read list since I feel it's important to get a read on you. If I get a scumread I have a decision to make, if I get a town/neutral read I won't push for your lynch as a scum lynch provides more information than even a high information town lynch and hits a scum at the same time.

to go one step further, if sjg is actually a villa then more wolves should be on him to avoid scrutiny today yet he has that as being the group with fewer wolves.