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#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread #4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread

05-10-2014 , 01:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rokk_Krinn
I called out SJG as scummy a few days back but was in a bit of a minourity, so it's not like I need convincing.

I admit, I hadn't thought of the intelligence gathering of the way both wagons were going yesterday. Coming from a "majourity lynch" site, that's actually a new way of looking at things and, kiss-arse as this sounds, thanks for the lesson and idea I can take back to there.

Lynch [/b]SJG11[/b]
I'm not sure how majority lynch would affect wanting to see if there was a town vs town lynch.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampionsMod
Votes from post 2198 to post 3665
Night in 2:00:56

---
VotesLynchVoters
8 WWWWombat _J_ (119), djarm67 (26), jcohen (163), Lawrencelot (29), Missing Person (78), Pres Eden (64), Rokk_Krinn (33), Tattersail (45)
6 sjg11 DarthPunk (96), DWetzel (82), Mattchew (40), Phelanpt (211), Synonym (3), The Moocher (108)
5 Lawrencelot CalledDownLight (57), Gamer Dude (40), Nickismyname (45), sjg11 (54), WWWWombat (62)
1 DWetzel Luckbox Inc (53)
1 Gamer Dude dils (38)
1 not voting Shills (0)
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampionsMod
Votes from post 2198 to post 3887
It is night

---
VotesLynchVoters
11 WWWWombat _J_ (121), CalledDownLight (69), djarm67 (29), DWetzel (107), jcohen (219), Lawrencelot (31), Missing Person (80), Pres Eden (64), Rokk_Krinn (35), sjg11 (56), Tattersail (45)
8 sjg11 DarthPunk (115), dils (66), Gamer Dude (47), Mattchew (40), Phelanpt (229), Synonym (5), The Moocher (127), WWWWombat (73)
1 DWetzel Luckbox Inc (54)
1 Lawrencelot Nickismyname (45)
1 not voting Shills (0)
The first thing I note is that with two hours before the deadline, we had a third viable wagon, namely Lawrence. Removing the two main wagons themselves (who voted each other in self-defense), we're left with Nick, Gamer Dude, CalledDownLight, and dils as players who weren't on the two main wagons until they became the two late wagons at the end. Additionally, DWetzel actually flipped from one wagon to the other.

This is a good place to look for reads because it's at the end of the day, which requires more thinking on your feet and thus makes it harder to make a "genuine" move. Townies often will let their intuition guide them to the right choice if they need to make a late move. Mafia obviously can't do the same because their "intuition" isn't telling them $hit, they already know the answers. All else being the same, and assuming the players are online for EOD, players whose EOD moves are consistent with what they've been saying prior to making the late moves are town; players whose EOD moves are inconsistent are scum; and players who don't move at all are scum. The first two are obvious, the last one is derived from (a) the initial observations above (namely that scum can't genuinely react to EOD moves; the obvious play then is not to move at all) and (b) the fact that staying on a third party ensures your vote doesn't affect the lynch and therefore implies that you aren't concerned with the outcome of the lynch result (typically a mafia trait).

Nick first, because I already talked about him earlier. He wasn't here for the collapse of his wagon due to IRL interference. The lack of a late move isn't incriminating here because he wasn't here to move. He's still not looking good, but that's because he didn't campaign hard at all for his candidate to get lynched when it did matter, not because of this.

Next is Gamer Dude, who moved from Lawrence to sjg. He actually voted for sjg prior to voting for Lawrence, and he ended up on sjg, so that's pretty consistent. I'm confused by what GD means by "appeasing the mass of cultures" but I think it's a shoutout to the earlier part in his post where he says he doesn't normally like to vote until EOD. He voted for Lawrence but didn't really push it or try to recruit people to join him, which is odd considering the lynch was actually viable; and while he promised a reread of Wombat there's no explicit acknowledgment that it happened, simply this last-minute check-in to reconfirm that he suspected sjg more. We had a talk during the last ~12 hrs or so of the turn though and I didn't get an insincere vibe from him. Based on the data I say null here, from what I remember of our interaction while this data was being generated, slight town.

===

lunch break frends then I will finish this post
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missing Person
So I'm gone for 4 hours, and this is how far we progress?

Really?
'Member that fluff posting you were talking about? ^^^ Here's an example.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
and here is the problem I have with the long posts. I looked at some of the games people linked and they are less than 1000 posts and most posts are 1-5 lines long. I basically never saw 8 paragraph posts on why someone was a wolf. I feel like some wolves (maybe all of them?) decided that was a good way to do work without having to interact.
I just want to say that the forum I come from we play PR mafia and rarely has a vanilla game ever showed it's face. So less emphasis is put on post analysis and people tend to rely more on abilities/write-up analysis.


Aside from that WHERE'S SHILLS2.0 ?
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:26 PM
pres eden, same to you. talk to all of us that are here. you can catch up later.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:26 PM
I'm wondering if Pres is ever going to make some reads based on all this analysis.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:28 PM
CDL, Moocher, talk to me about mechanics a bit

The wolves have to have some kind of killing power besides the NK, right? We're gonna be here until June if they don't.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamer Dude
I just want to say that the forum I come from we play PR mafia and rarely has a vanilla game ever showed it's face. So less emphasis is put on post analysis and people tend to rely more on abilities/write-up analysis.


Aside from that WHERE'S SHILLS2.0 ?
thats fair and I am sure that this game will have its share of moments like that too, but in the meantime we can get analysis in 50 words not 500. what do you think of the fact that phelant refuses to talk to anyone who is itt and keeps making posts about people who he knows cant reply right away?
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:29 PM
and obviously we have some killing power because wolves are killing System Overlord n1 roughly never
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
CDL, Moocher, talk to me about mechanics a bit

The wolves have to have some kind of killing power besides the NK, right? We're gonna be here until June if they don't.
I thought so, but if they do where is it? I mean, its possible there are like 7 weakish wolves (6 with meh roles and a JOAT who we got n1) and nothing else. I wouldn't have designed it that way, but its possible. I would have either put a wolf poisoner, half/full vig, or some kind of conditional/3x vig in the game as a mod.

I guess the one other possibility if that the wolves are all from forums with the weird "vigs shouldnt shoot n1 meta" and they think there is value in the wolves also holding shots, but it is kinda hard for me to think anyone could ever come to that conclusion even with a 3x vig or something.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pres Eden
Next is Gamer Dude, who moved from Lawrence to sjg. He actually voted for sjg prior to voting for Lawrence, and he ended up on sjg, so that's pretty consistent. I'm confused by what GD means by "appeasing the mass of cultures" but I think it's a shoutout to the earlier part in his post where he says he doesn't normally like to vote until EOD. He voted for Lawrence but didn't really push it or try to recruit people to join him, which is odd considering the lynch was actually viable; and while he promised a reread of Wombat there's no explicit acknowledgment that it happened, simply this last-minute check-in to reconfirm that he suspected sjg more. We had a talk during the last ~12 hrs or so of the turn though and I didn't get an insincere vibe from him. Based on the data I say null here, from what I remember of our interaction while this data was being generated, slight town.
I'd be happy to clear up the few holes there. You're bang on with the appeasing the mass of cultures thing. My shift from SJG to Lawrence to SJG was, as I believe I mentioned, I had Lawrence > SJG as a wolf. BUT I still thought SJG to be scummy as well. When the lawrence wagon was obviously not gased up enough to keep up with the other 2 I hoped over to SJG because I had SJG > Wombat as a wolf.

I did in fact re read and nothing changed my stance on him, so if you were looking for a conclusion post I'm sorry I opted out. Basically I had a town lean on Wombat because he seemed like he had a town motive and his tone was good in my eyes. However I wasn't comfortable enough with him to try and persuade others off his wagon.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
and obviously we have some killing power because wolves are killing System Overlord n1 roughly never
oh yea, thats a given. I am guessing its a full vig or even better two half vigs and wolves lucked into an angel/rb last night. If they lucked into a RB or if the vig didnt fire and they RB'd someone then I would expect that someone to die tonight.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
CDL, Moocher, talk to me about mechanics a bit

The wolves have to have some kind of killing power besides the NK, right? We're gonna be here until June if they don't.
Agreed but we may have people that have intercepted a kill so I'm uncomfortable speculating about it right now, we'll get there eventually.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
thats fair and I am sure that this game will have its share of moments like that too, but in the meantime we can get analysis in 50 words not 500. what do you think of the fact that phelant refuses to talk to anyone who is itt and keeps making posts about people who he knows cant reply right away?
I'll answer that but first ITT is one of the few acronyms I'm unfamiliar with so help me out with that first.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
Let me ask you this: if it was convenient to do so, why wouldn't a whole lot of wolves want to be on your wagon? It would be easy to paint Wombat voters in a very bad light, no? Get to waste a day attacking people for that, maybe get a mislynch out of it, pique people's curiosity about your role and maybe lynch you instead and we've wasted a long weekend lynching a villager and finding out no info.
Fact: Wombat was a townie who was lynched with 11 votes. Are you really telling me that you think it is a more likely scenario that there are no scum votes on that wagon than that there are scum votes on that wagon? Is that what you're seriously trying to suggest to me? It is clearly more likely that there are scum votes on Wombat than that there aren't

Quote:
I tend to believe you're a villager mainly because it at least explains why things were so static yesterday, but you're not helping your cause at all here by burying your head in the sand and looking only at your precious list heuristic. For one thing, it gives you great cover to say "yeah, there are, um, a lot of wolves in that very large pile" and you don't have to give specific opinions until it suits you. For another, a lot of other stuff has happened in the thread and pounding this makes it look like you haven't read it or don't care.
I'm reading it and I care. I looked in good detail at djarm, Wombat and Lawrence yesterday outside of my lists, which were only the starting point of my analysis. Do you dispute this?
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:36 PM
pres eden, I dont agree with you that wolves cant make logically consistent and/or proper votes at eod, especially with how slow that eod developed. I have been a wolf and made great great great votes at eod (like literally where I vote 2 different wagons at :00) when wagons were flipping all over the place and I had no time to consult other wolves much less even read all the posts being made. I give 0 credit to anyone for making a logically consistent vote at eod yesterday.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CalledDownLight
sjg, havent finished reading the post yet, but wagons can easily build on a villager with no wolf pressure on that villager. This routinely happens in games twice this size, especially early on.
From my experience it is a very rare occurrence.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamer Dude
I'll answer that but first ITT is one of the few acronyms I'm unfamiliar with so help me out with that first.
in this thread
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moocher
Agreed but we may have people that have intercepted a kill so I'm uncomfortable speculating about it right now, we'll get there eventually.
I see that point of view
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjg11
Fact: Wombat was a townie who was lynched with 11 votes. Are you really telling me that you think it is a more likely scenario that there are no scum votes on that wagon than that there are scum votes on that wagon? Is that what you're seriously trying to suggest to me? It is clearly more likely that there are scum votes on Wombat than that there aren't


I'm reading it and I care. I looked in good detail at djarm, Wombat and Lawrence yesterday outside of my lists, which were only the starting point of my analysis. Do you dispute this?
sure there are probably scum votes on his wagon, but whether it is 1 or 5 there is really no way to know. ironically, the best way to get any more clarity on this would be for you to die.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjg11
From my experience it is a very rare occurrence.
which is fair, but I have played over 110 games and over 50 of them have probably been ones with 40+ players (including several over 75) and I am telling you that it is the case and not at all out of the norm.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjg11
Fact: Wombat was a townie who was lynched with 11 votes. Are you really telling me that you think it is a more likely scenario that there are no scum votes on that wagon than that there are scum votes on that wagon? Is that what you're seriously trying to suggest to me? It is clearly more likely that there are scum votes on Wombat than that there aren't
I will stipulate that it is "more likely" if you'll stipulate that it's stupid to assume that they will be scattered in the specific ways you suggest, given that the wolves supposedly don't give a crap who gets lynched between you and Wombat but do have interest in concealing themselves
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pres Eden
Mattchew's case on me is actually pretty bad on further inspection.
[snip]
- Still don't see what's wrong with my end of D1 posts about the cop. jcohen's reveal post was the best cop reveal I've ever seen, it's a textbook how-to guide. I felt it was immediately obvious and am kinda surprised that saying as much is a point for or against me, it's one of those things that has a point but that either side could feasibly say.
The point is that you spent more time going after people for "doubting jcohen", while people were actually checking out his case, than you did discussing the rest of the game. It doesn't add anything to the game. It was weird then, and it's still weird now, especially when one of the people doubting jcohen yesterday was sjg11, who you defended like mad. It's awful to doubt the claim straight after it's made, but it's good to doubt it more than 48 hours after?

===

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pres Eden
Tattersail's post doesn't merit a response. Truly it doesn't merit acknowledgment, but while I'm responding to stuff against me...
I believe it's a pertinent question, and would like you to answer it.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Moocher

Given that I'm apparently your 2nd most likely wolf and that all of your analysis seems to hinge on the fact that Lawrence is a wolf it would probably be best if you made a case on Lawrence, using his actual posts, and then read my posts as well, because it looks like you haven't done that either.
1. Read post 3398 and tell me I haven't made a case on Lawrence.

2. You're not my second most likely wolf, don't twist what I say when I never said it, my voting analysis is telling me you're an interesting player with regards to connections. I'm currently unsure about your alignment but you're top of my re-read list since I feel it's important to get a read on you. If I get a scumread I have a decision to make, if I get a town/neutral read I won't push for your lynch as a scum lynch provides more information than even a high information town lynch and hits a scum at the same time.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote
05-10-2014 , 01:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DWetzel
I will stipulate that it is "more likely" if you'll stipulate that it's stupid to assume that they will be scattered in the specific ways you suggest, given that the wolves supposedly don't give a crap who gets lynched between you and Wombat but do have interest in concealing themselves
to go one step further, if sjg is actually a villa then more wolves should be on him to avoid scrutiny today yet he has that as being the group with fewer wolves.
#4 Game of Mafia Champions (WW Invitational) - Game Thread Quote

      
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