binkles i get that you hate the reason behind my vote and thats totally fair.

would you like it better if i just said, there are a lot of clearish players in this game and you are not one of them, and I think you are one of the wolfiest of the uncleareds

lol don't skip class for this it's just a game

Sorry NLS I don't mean to guilt trip you or anything if that's how it comes off. I'm just a little bit tilted.

you

I enjoyed that xpost

Also, I'm pretty lazy and not going to class appeals to me in many different ways

a huge freaking mind**** of a game, but a game nonetheless

truth comes out! lynch all liars!

this is still pretty much where im at. but swap vmf and slighted.

i already reread vmf today and it was enough to move him from bottom 3 to middle 2. i guess ill reread slighted now while you reread vmf.

I have a few minutes, although I'm disappointed that most people have taken the lynch today for granted. If you've thrown in the towel today you'll have my blood on your hands.


I don't think NLS is clear at all. It's almost certain that the wolves used a kill on Gad N1, and that Gad angled. This first kill was probably a seer hunt along with a strong player kill. Since the kill didn't work, they would have known that he was likely an angel that self-angeled, and knew he'd be vulnerable the next night. While the seer is still alive, killing the angel is huge. Gad called NLS a villa the next day, but I doubt anything Gad said D2 had any influence on the wolves night action.
The reason I think Slighted looks villa if Andrew is one is because there wasn't much outside of the possible tmi slip that pointed to slighted being a wolf. Most of his current wolfiness is his defense of Andrew and pushing of two villagers.
I'm actually voting him now, I thought about it and realized that the villages best chance of winning now pretty much means that Andrew has to be a wolf and we can catch other wolves (yg and slighted) based on this. Also, Gad called him a wolf D1 I believe, so he may have been killed because of that along with his Anarchist=wolf peek.
+1
The village can probably only win if the wolf vig dies today, tonight, or maybe tomorrow. We can certainly win without resolving me. The wolves won't kill me now, so if they keep killing villagers, we'll know each one isn't the miller. If, at like F7 it's 3 wolves, me, villa vig, 2 villas, then me being miller is pretty likely.
I agree that we should lynch Andrew today. If you're a wolf this game Monte, I'll just tip my hat to you and say GG, you've got us all fooled. If you're a villager, thanks for working hard all game, you're playing well in any role.
I'll answer these one at a time.
It's an interesting point about my meta. Much like in poker, it's way overrated. The correct play is usually made in a vacuum. If I were a wolf, it would be TERRIBLE TERRIBLE TERRIBLE for me to be fighting my lynch like this. I would figure we were smashing the village anyway, especially now that they have no seer or angel, and that as long as we didn't totally punt the game, we would win.

If I'm lynched miller, there won't be any game left. We lose probably 99% of the time if we mislynch me here.

I assume by UAW you meant Andrew. I never once said UAW was a villager. I think Slighted and Andrew are both likely wolves, and I did waffle a bit on Andrew. Then I remembered that Gad had Andrew as a wolf D1, which makes the likely attempted kill of Gad N1 look even more like a seer hunt. If Andrew is a villager, it will mean we'll have likely v/v wagons D1, with a lynched villager, and v/v/v wagons D2. If that is the case, it hardly matters whether or not we lynch Andrew, we have no chance if we're playing so badly that we can't even get a single wagon on a wolf.

sup

it seems to me that there is a group of at least 4 of us that all agree that the other 3 are clear (enough). me monte vaya and crm. feel free to correct me if thats wrong but to me if there are 4 people that all think the other 3 are clear, then 1. we are probably clear and 2. if there's a wolf amongst us the village is probably ****ed no matter what, so we might as well operate as if we are clear and hope for the best.

that group maybe includes cadeus and comesur as well?

i guess where i'm going with this is that while i appreciate the workflytrap is putting in, he really needs to focus on the (slighted, binkles, vmf, yg, andrew) group. trying to cast doubt on someone from the first group is just not going to be productive at this point.

i started rereading slighted and pretty quickly concluded that he def deserves to be in the bottom 3. i think hes a better vote than binkles

slighted

lol.. ur jokes man. not even a full reread.. go into it with a view already.. lolol

Do you think slighted/flytrap can be w/w?

My head says no but my heart says yes

why is nls cleared again? his last couple posts seem really wolfy. clearing himself and others that arent really clear.. doing half assed re-reads.. i pity the village if he is somehow the leader..

one of the sicker wolfclaims ive seen

Question, should the town vig avoid shooting tonight? So that we FOR SURE get to play tomorrow?

If not, why don't we talk about who they should shoot. Wolves don't have an angel right?

Thirdly, we need to REALLY buckle down today and clear some people, but only people we feel strongly about. For me, that's Monte. This isn't his wolf game. Not the way he freaked out about being randed wolf so much. I've seen otherwise, but I think Homer seered Vaya n0. Just too much talking about vaya not to have. I'm fairly confident he seered Fly wolf n1, though with the miller, that doesn't mean it's for certain and Fly's point about wolves seer hunting is... I have no idea.

For one, if homer was NKed for being seer (and Fly is miller) then the wolves HAVE to have peeked him, otherwise, they wouldn't have gone after him. Was there enough after Day 1 to have done so? Maybe. I'm just not sure. I'll have to go back and see.

However, if homer was SPKed, then his peeks matter a little less. And I'm still not 100% sure he peeked Fly at all. So, I'm almost inclined to believe Fly is villager, if not miller.

Setting those (and me) aside, there are four wolves in

YG
Andrew
Caedus
Binks
Come
NLS
Slighted
VMF

I think come has been pretty solidly villa, so I'll remove him too. Also possibly willing to remove Caedus, leaving me with 4 in

YG
Andrew
Binks
NL
Slighted
VMF

Three people flipped from Andrew to BLS yesterday. I'm one of them but the other two were YG (later flipped to UAW, but that's irrelevant) and Binks. Without those two flips Andrew is 7-6 behind UAW. My flip would have tied it, but I'm a villager and so that's less important. The thing is that flipping late to UAW looks a bit wolfy, but flipping to another second wagon looks less like saving someone. I know I just called the last second vote of UAW irrelevant, but I've talked myself into thinking that it makes YG look LESS wolfy than Binks, but saving Andrew still looks wolfy.

In my mind, that pretty close to locks Andrew into being a wolf. It makes Binks and YG look super wolfy too. With a wolf team of those 3, who fits best? Slighted's TMI is bad, but not lockwolf bad.

I say we vote out Andrew and (regardless of flip, though I feel it will be wolf) vig should shoot Binks. Then, we could at least start tomorrow with 8 people and at most 3 wolves (obviously, or we wouldn't have started the day). I really feel that would leave us with only 2 wolves and put us in a good position to win.

Thoughts? Holes? Awesomes?

This post SCREAMS wolf to me. The "pity the village" thing is TERRIBLE.

ya i think vig should shoot slighted b4 binks

Andrew re-read:

Think this could be forced between Andrew/binkles if they're w/w.

Okay, I'll keep this in mind when rereading you now. You've been absent a lot more than you've been here this game and you've derailed the thread with wagonomics arguments that sounded pretty absurd, so by your own words, you've been wolfy.

Sponges a case by Monte on binkles and puts a vote out there. This is weak/forced analysis.

His first big multiquote (post #278) he doesn't make many definitive reads on players who have been resolved so far. His attempt to interact with other players is pretty clunky overall and not well thought out. Not sure if that's a villager tell because he's just typing what he's thinking or if he's a wolf trying to sound like he's a free-flowing villager.

Good advice, but weird timing. I think this is a hard post for a wolf to make, but not if he's being given advice on what to comment on.

His 2nd big multiquote (post #297) he has a wolf read on both UAW and on me, agreeing with flytrap on the UAW read and disagreeing with him on the read of me. He calls all of UAWs posts wolfy at this point also. We know UAW is a villager now, but let's see if he's consistent on his thoughts about him.

Still hate all his interactions with Anarchist and think it reeks of w/w.

Weird vote and list. He hadn't shown any really defined feelings on BLS being a wolf before this. He's consistent on Anarchist/UAW/Slighted reads, but inconsistent on me/binkles.

Okay, so why didn't you say that when you voted instead of waiting until someone responded, especially if you've been absent most of the day. Sounds like he was trying to force the read on BLS who we know is a villager now.

Then in his re-read multiquote, he doesn't once mention BLS being a wolf, yet doesn't unvote and even goes on to make this post:

Then he's onto vix (villager) without any explanation.

Weird post directed at vix. Also I hate the formatting and it looks like he's copy/pasting from notepad (or wolfchat omg) because he's editing them a bunch or something. I'm still not sure what he's even trying to say with this post or why it's relevant at all.

Consistent here.

...but he's still on vix and he did make mention of vix's rageposts. Not even attempting to push another wagon at this point.

Weird defense of crm here, but he's consistent in it. Just strange timing and doesn't sound right for some reason.

---end of day 1---

Weird post considering he thought UAW was wolfy yesterday...

This sounds like a nervous post where he doesn't want to commit to any reads here near EOD since if he's a wolf, his team has surely told him that he's one of the wagons (and the other 2 are villagers).

Then he makes some wagonomics posts that are really confusing and pretty meaningless at this point of the game.

Consistent with day 1, but still weird that he's not actively reading back in the thread to find these things himself considering he came back to the thread with an hour left in day.

So now he's back on BLS who was gaining steam as a wagon at this point. Not sure what to make of this since both UAW and BLS were villa and I doubt he brings this attention onto himself if he's a wolf.

This list is exactly the same as his last list only binkles has been moved down without any prior posts about him made by Andrew on day 2. Also he claims not to have seen anything from UAW on day 2, but he's getting reads on binkles from it?

Flip-flops again 2 minutes before EOD.

---end of day 2---

Weird post because it's contradicting in a lot of ways. He calls himself not lazy, yet he couldn't read back in the thread a few hours prior when he came back before EOD? Also he's the first one to mention that we might lose the game if we mislynch tonight, which seems weird considering the rest of his game so far. I think that may have been a topic of conversation in wolfchat and he wants to mention it before anyone else to gain villa points for being attentive. Also think that it's weird that he mentions seer/angel/mason as roles and not as players. That's always been a wolf tell in my experience, since you don't care about the player as much as you care about the power role when you're a wolf.

I hope he actually does this. Anything less than stellar village work before EOD and this guy needs to go. The hardest part of lynching him is that I'm not exactly confident in the info it gives us if he flips wolf. He's flipped his read on every player he's taken the time to address for more than 1 post except for UAW wolf and Slighted/crm villa. I'll keep this in mind on my re-reads of Slighted/crm.

I like a lot of the thought processes there, but the conclusion is wrong. We can't leave flytrap alive when he has a 4/5 chance of being a wolf.

Also iirc I was the first to flip to BLS, and he wasn't really a viable counterwagon at the time. The only way I'd do that as a wolf was if UAW/Andrew are both villagers and I wanted to sow some discord. And by virtue of POE and everything else, Andrew is a wolf here a ton of the time. Which makes YG's snipe awful. He's another I have to read.

my opinion on andrew is basically if he posts more like that one he did late last night (maybe early this morn for you guys) hes villa. if he posts more like his first two days hes wolf. if he fails to come through on his promise to do work tonight hes wolf.

slighted has already claimed wolf so he seems like the safest lynch for tonight.

Yeah, after Slighted's last post, I'm inclined to agree.

crm, I think you should claim mason at this point if you can prove it. Same goes if anyone else is the mason and can prove it, but I'd be completely shocked if it wasn't you.

Also, surprised I haven't seen this theory yet, but what if Gad angeled Homer on n1? Homer is a strong villager and would have been a likely wolf nk. Gad would have known this information and may have done just that. Gad would have had to not angel himself on n2, but if he didn't think he was a target for nk it's possible. Doesn't really matter in the end, but it might be worthwhile to think that Homer/McAvoy and Gad/McAvoy are both very possible scenarios for the wolves n1 kills.

also aperrently i was wrong about that 4 person circle of trust so my bad on that :/