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The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4

05-12-2015 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spruce
I mean if they're playing together in other games, or fellowshipping / communication in other venues together, they very likely are aware they're in this game together under the names they're using here, even if they're using other names elsewhere.

Like both No Lynches and I agree, it's a side comment regarding paranoia over Scum strategies. I tend to believe, as you stated, that your failed No Lynch vote was an invalid joke vote - that perhaps you weren't completely used to the voting format here or maybe used red for voting on your home site. A couple of us thought the same of nicks italicised / bold differential - how it seemed to be a mistaken form of personalised address he was otherwise using, 'till he too clarified the matter.
This all seems like some wild assumption. Didn't we tell the moderator if we've played with anybody else to avoid such scenarios. We're all from different websites so I don't think it is such a valid assumption to say that mafia members are simultaneously playing together in other games.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:06 PM
Votes from post 8 to post 501
Night in 3:54:54

---
VotesLynchVoters
2 Mashiii No Lynches (59), spruce (67)
2 Phoenicks Jrdrylie (30), Gnawazan (19)
2 Gnawazan soah (59), Phoenicks (43)
2 ashersky nolemonplease (38), notquitethere (13)
2 Lissa2 Riki (48), Kawamii (33)
1 spruce Mashiii (16)
1 soah ashersky (34)
1 Jrdrylie Lissa2 (26)
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ashersky
I think soah could be scum. I am voting for him, after all. I think his reactions all day have felt like scum under pressure.

But, as always, I try to see things from all angles. Playing for glory is a possibility for scum!soah it town!soah.
I agree with Lissa, the glory reasoning feels like a weird thing to tack on.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:11 PM
btw, regarding Jrdrylie, there's been some attempt made at making a "gotcha" case on him because he was giving conflicting explanations for his opening post. I'm too lazy to look up the stuff to quote it.

I just wanted to say that most decisions that people make are multifaceted. There is rarely just a single reason. You can ask a person three times to explain a decision and get three different answers. That stuff just happens and it's not a compelling foundation for a case.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
Okay, I've reread the thread. These are my rankings and thoughts, from least suspicious to most suspicious:

1. JR- I know I'm good so obviously I'm numero uno.
2. Soah- His entry was a bit odd to me. But ever since, I've really like the play. Aggressive, questioning people, definitely being a helpful player at this point.
3. Riki- The first person to notice No Lynches acting strangely. Consistent strong play throughout so far.
4. NoLemonPlease- One of my first suspicions, but it was based on a single post. Ever since, I've seen solid play and honest scum hunting.
5. Lissa- I get the same feelings reading Lissa as I do with NLP, thus the similar rankings.
6. Notquitethere- Pretty much every post has been a large post addressing multiple topics. In my experience, I've seen both towns people do this as well as scum trying to appear helpful. It really depends on the player. But I'll give the benefit of the doubt and say they're actually trying to help.
7. Gnawazan- Had some similar lines of thought to me early on. As long as it doesn't come off as sheeping, I like to see that.
8. Mashii- Didn't do much until post #288 where they posted thoughts on pretty much everybody.
9. No Lynches- The opening was odd. Then there was a ton of fluff. But since then, the play has improved. No Lynches is growing on me.
10. Spruce- A ton of unrealted posts and non-sense. Two or three decent, though unmemorable posts.
11. Kawamii- Literally nothing has stuck out about the game. Remove all of their posts and I don't think the game is affected at all.
12. ashersky- Pretty much the same as Kawamii. Ranks lower simply because there is one post that came off as a little scummy.
13. Phoenicks- Hate the way Nick is playing. He tried to put me at L-1 (even though he really didn't). Later says he saw the largest wagon and wanted on it. Maybe that's the way he plays, but it is so scummy. I'm beginning to think he's almost too scummy to be scum.
I'd thought that you were reasonably villagery up until this point but this list of reads is pretty weak and you've done little in the hours since then.

Like, two of your three strongest wolf reads consist literally of saying that you have nothing to say about their posts. Most of the rest are pretty hollow as well.

If you're a villager then please step it up and show me something solid.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:30 PM
Mashiii -

You mention in that big post that you don't usually find strategy discussions alignment indicative. I think one of the things that's got Jrdrylie so far down on my list is that I saw a lot of mechanics talk early on and remembered little less. With trying to discuss the game 1 strategy talk, hypocopping?, and where to vote, etc. I tend to get evil reads on those who feel like they are trying to talk too much mechanics. On reread, it seems like there was more in there that just didn't stick out to me I guess. Conflicted at the moment.

I do have a question that anyone can answer, I think someone can answer this quicker than me looking it up. Who initially brought up the hypocop discussion? It looks like his post is a response to someone else talking about it.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:34 PM
Regarding Phoenicks, I think the pingiest part of his wagon vote was he provided a town read on the person he was voting at the time he was making it.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:38 PM
lemon,

The "hypocop" discussion began like this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
Did anybody follow the previous three games? I only followed day one of the first game, just to get a bit of the vibe on how games on this site run. There were some interesting ideas brought up in it though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
I followed the first briefly. What interesting ideas?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
1. One guy suggested that either everybody claim cop and say who they "peeked." Or nobody claim cop. The guy who suggested it ended up being the cop and was killed night one. He claimed cop on page two. Needless to say, it did not work out. The reasoning was decent but I'm definitely on the side of no unnecessary role reveals, especially day one.

2. A discussion about the utility of town members lying. I actually thought this was a fruitful discussion. If nothing else, it helped people learn the mindset and playing style of strangers.

3. Discussion about the random voting stage- we've already had a small discussion about that here. On my site, it's a mixed bag. I always start with a random vote. And several other players do as well. Then there are players who almost never vote and it pisses off a lot of players. There definitely isn't a defined random voting stage and day ones are generally awful and end in a no lynch because people are too scared/inactive to lynch somebody off day one.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
spruce,

In reviewing your posts, I have no idea why you voted Mashiii, really.

And when he comes in the thread and votes you and drops a massive wall of text, you don't even seem to react. You interact with him about some stuff yet I don't see any signs of suspicion from you nor signs that you're trying to refine your read on him. It seems like that wall of text ought to be a great springboard for you to probe him, especially considering that he had relatively few posts prior to you voting him and you never really seemed too enthused with him as a wolf read.

So, like, what's up with that?
I was curious about this as well, and was wondering if there'd be some explanation when I caught up.

spruce - you paired Mashiii with Kami earlier? How are you reading Kami now?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:41 PM
I was more interested in looking for the source of Jrdrylie's post I'm quotting here, but I found the context. It was in response to Phoenicks who was responding to what you just quoted. Turns out that was easier than I thought it was going to be! Haha.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phoenicks
Missed the rest of this post from my phone.

Where I've played, everyone fakeclaiming is called "hypocop" and I think it's a useful strategy. Especially when we're in a group of 13 players with 10 town, there won't be quite enough incorrect claims to give scum the answers to who cop are.

But it's not such a great strategy that it's worth organizing and I'm too lazy to do it.

As for Random Voting -- almost any vote is more useful than a no vote, and almost any wagon is more useful than a lone vote.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
I've never participated in "hypocopping" but I've done mass reveals. I'm trying to piece together the costs and benefits of such a strategy. The obvious downside is that it makes it easier for the mafia to find the cop. There is a good chance the mafia can eliminate at least two townies. It goes from 1 in 10 chance to 1 in 8 chance. That's actually not too bad, just a 2.5% increase. Possibly a bigger downfall is chasing red herrings. Most of the information will be lies or guesses. on the other hand, any discussion is good discussion.

The benefits likely aren't immediate. There is information to be gained if we lynch scum. And of course, if somebody comes out and says I'm scum, I know they are lying and are not the cop and likely not scum.

T.L.D.R I don't think it's a great idea.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by soah
I'd thought that you were reasonably villagery up until this point but this list of reads is pretty weak and you've done little in the hours since then.

Like, two of your three strongest wolf reads consist literally of saying that you have nothing to say about their posts. Most of the rest are pretty hollow as well.

If you're a villager then please step it up and show me something solid.
The fact that Kawamii was completely unmemorable for the first 24 hours is exactly why she was one of my biggest wold reads. Even when asked the response was that nothing stuck out and no opinion was given. There are different ways to play scum. Some go aggressive, trying to look helpful to the town. Others sit back, let others fight it out, all the while failing to take a stand against someone which could later come back to bite them in the butt. When I see somebody acting like that, as Kawamii was, they move near the top of my list.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:41 PM
No Lynches - The stream of posting at the beginning of the game felt confident/relaxed in a townish way, as I mentioned early on. His reasoning/thought process for his Phoenicks vote, while I'm not sure I agree with it, feels reasonable enough.
I agree with his general opinion that people who take jokes too seriously can be more likely to be scum, not thinking that's an alignment indicative statement though.
I like the thought process on his Gnaw read, feels townish. Same with his Jrd read.
Leaning town.

notquitethere - His 125 makes an observation I tried to make in I guess a bit of a clearer manner - that because experience isn't alignment indicative, lynching based on it would be far more likely to result in a "useful" mislynch than a scum lynch.
I like how he notes the contradiction he finds in jrd's posts and pushes for him to respond. I think it's interesting, however, that he later puts jrd in about the middle of his reads list, and doesn't comment on the contradiction there. Perhaps a bit of confbias led me to read too much into him calling jrd out on things, but this looks like something a scumbuddy of jrd's would do.
Though he voted jrd early and questioned him a lot, so perhaps not.
Am I reaching in seeing a connection there?
Maybe slightly leaning scum, not too sure.

Phoenicks - I feel like him admitting he was townreading jdr when he voted him was townish in its transparency. It wouldn't have been difficult for scum-Phoen to simply say he scumread jdr, with a few people having already expressed suspicion there.
And I think the wagoning-for-a-reaction thing is reasonable and townish. I've done it a few times, though it has to be used pretty cautiously in a game with majority lynch.
On him thinking it was L-1, that seems a tiny bit townslippy because if he was scum and had scumbuddies they'd be somewhere in the back of his mind probably and he'd know he had two and a three-person scumteam in a typical nine-person game is not a thing that is done in most places. This is weak though and fakeable and feel free to take it with a grain of salt or three.
His reaction when I questioned him about 107 felt fairly townish. I like how he questioned my motivation for asking. And with it in mind, 107 feels decently townish as well.
296 feels like it has a transparently Town thought process.
Town lean.

Riki - His 187 seems good, I feel like questioning someone's reasoning for thinking well of you is townish. His 280 lines up with what I'd kind of been thinking, that feels decently Townish. He has similar thoughts to me about Kawamii when said thoughts don't seem to be particularly popular and that seems like a good sign as well.
Leaning Town.

soah - He was the one that commented on that "impressions" list of nqt's I brought up last night, that seems like a good sign/Townish observation. Early on I mentioned that his 155 sounded slightly townish, and looking at it again I agree with my earlier assessment. And his posting just generally seems to consist of Townish thought processes, questioning, and reactions.
Town lean.

spruce - Starts out pretty fluffy, okay. Keeps being pretty fluffy. I struggled at first to find much he said that's really alignment indicative at all.
He voted Mashi on little basis, then sort of retracted/diminished that suspicion without moving the vote. I don't get why he voted Mashi in the first place.
I'm not sure what he was talking about with 'the "duh" stuff' - what did you mean by that, Spruce? And what does it have to do with scum having/not having daytalk?
Leaning scum.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolemonplease
Regarding Phoenicks, I think the pingiest part of his wagon vote was he provided a town read on the person he was voting at the time he was making it.
I feel like calling someone Town and voting them in the way he did, while it doesn't look great on the surface, probably comes from Town. At that point, I don't think he'd said much either way on Phoen's alignment (he didn't have an earlier opinion to hold to or worry about contradicting). A couple of players had already called jrd out on his opening post; he could fairly easily have called him scum and probably looked better on the surface for it.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
The fact that Kawamii was completely unmemorable for the first 24 hours is exactly why she was one of my biggest wold reads. Even when asked the response was that nothing stuck out and no opinion was given. There are different ways to play scum. Some go aggressive, trying to look helpful to the town. Others sit back, let others fight it out, all the while failing to take a stand against someone which could later come back to bite them in the butt. When I see somebody acting like that, as Kawamii was, they move near the top of my list.
Kawamii was the last to arrive in the thread which is completely null in all of my experience, and of course a person isn't memorable if they haven't posted yet.

Once he was here he made a fair amount of splash, I would say.


You posted a list of reads last night and then when you returned this morning you said that you had reread the thread, and you moved some people around in your list. Surely you actually noticed Kawamii's posts? I struggle to believe that you would be content to have people near the top of your lynch list without even having a general idea of what they had posted. The whole purpose of rereading the thread would be to solidify your reads on those type of people.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:00 PM
I'm not going to make fake lists about my thoughts when in reality I don't have any.
My votes are an indication of my thoughts on who I find the least good because I really don't find anyone suspicious.
I'm not going to manipulate words and take them out of context to make a case out of nothing.

It's only day one and I see no point in overanalyzing nothing viable.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:01 PM
Votes from post 8 to post 515
Night in 2:59:57

---
VotesLynchVoters
2 Mashiii No Lynches (59), spruce (67)
2 Phoenicks Jrdrylie (31), Gnawazan (19)
2 Gnawazan soah (63), Phoenicks (43)
2 ashersky nolemonplease (43), notquitethere (13)
2 Lissa2 Riki (48), Kawamii (34)
1 spruce Mashiii (16)
1 soah ashersky (34)
1 Jrdrylie Lissa2 (28)
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kawamii
I'm not going to make fake lists about my thoughts when in reality I don't have any.
My votes are an indication of my thoughts on who I find the least good because I really don't find anyone suspicious.
I'm not going to manipulate words and take them out of context to make a case out of nothing.

It's only day one and I see no point in overanalyzing nothing viable.
Your votes would be a better indication of your thoughts if you included a little reasoning behind your votes would help. You said you had a town lean on me and spruce. And then you said you didn't trust soah.

Then you vote for Lissa, who you never mentioned once. Switch to Phoenicks, again no explanation. Then switched to ashersky, no mention of them ever, no reasoning. Then another switch to Lissa, again no reasoning.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nolemonplease
Regarding Phoenicks, I think the pingiest part of his wagon vote was he provided a town read on the person he was voting at the time he was making it.
I agree more or less with Lissa2's analysis. I originally found that suspicious of Phoenicks as well, but upon rereading the thread and noting that wagoning people in general seemed to be the way people built discussions on his forum, he's at least being consistent with the idea. The primary thing I don't like is that he thought he put jrdrylie at L-1, and I can't tell if that's a cultural difference or actual suspicious behaviour.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kawamii
I'm not going to make fake lists about my thoughts when in reality I don't have any.
My votes are an indication of my thoughts on who I find the least good because I really don't find anyone suspicious.
I'm not going to manipulate words and take them out of context to make a case out of nothing.

It's only day one and I see no point in overanalyzing nothing viable.
More than 500 posts in the thread and you really can't come up with anything?
Why did you randomly vote Lissa2 and why have you been voting so abruptly without explanation?
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jrdrylie
Your votes would be a better indication of your thoughts if you included a little reasoning behind your votes would help. You said you had a town lean on me and spruce. And then you said you didn't trust soah.

Then you vote for Lissa, who you never mentioned once. Switch to Phoenicks, again no explanation. Then switched to ashersky, no mention of them ever, no reasoning. Then another switch to Lissa, again no reasoning.
I mainly voted for Phoenicks because I didn't like how he purposely voted for someone he thought was good, but after he posted defending himself I felt like him being lynched would be a mistake.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:17 PM
It is a good point. Was just something I noted; don't think I'm agreeing with pressure about the L-1. I'm not really interested in lynching Phoenicks today, I think.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mashiii
I agree more or less with Lissa2's analysis. I originally found that suspicious of Phoenicks as well, but upon rereading the thread and noting that wagoning people in general seemed to be the way people built discussions on his forum, he's at least being consistent with the idea. The primary thing I don't like is that he thought he put jrdrylie at L-1, and I can't tell if that's a cultural difference or actual suspicious behaviour.


More than 500 posts in the thread and you really can't come up with anything?
Why did you randomly vote Lissa2 and why have you been voting so abruptly without explanation?
500 posts is not a lot of content to go on tbh
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:19 PM
░░░░░░░▄▄▄▀▀▀▄▄███▄
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The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:20 PM
What in the world.
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:20 PM
these wagons seem pretty solid
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote
05-12-2015 , 05:21 PM
gnawazan
The 2015 Mafia Championship: Game 4 Quote

      
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