TheRagnarok is seerhunt clear, I would prefer if he took a more commanding role but pressuring him is pointless.

Grats on being the one to say we shouldn't maj a wolf
Why not say anything? From our point of view you go from soft defence to 50% wolf without any argumentation during the switch.
Nice and easy explaination just to claim he was being wolfy even though you didn't say that until right before he was getting lynched.

Just in case. Do you have any other 50% wolf you haven't told us about yet?

Hi. I haven't got caught up yet, I'm running late this morning. I did see the NKs early this morning.

I have to say I don't think STS is a wolf and the vix kill doesn't feel right to me as a seer hunt in the way that tommy did. For one thing, on d2 vix left different peeks that can't line up with the supposed shin/STS wolf peeks. I just don't think a wolf team would think vix looked like a seer. Besides that, STS just isn't going about this in a way that feels wolfy. I disagree with him on almost everything but it feels villagery. I also think back to the yamato kill. What was it for? The simplest explanation right now is that it was to help setup VE. this kill feels like that

As far as why I'm not dead, I don't know, but yesterday CJ made a goofy post to me wherein he said to me point blank that he knew I wasn't a seer or vig. Maybe this means the wolf team has a seer, or maybe it means my seer cover was bad, or maybe it was just bluster, but it felt like he was telling the truth. I'm not sure it really matters, but I feel like the night kills in this game have to fit together somehow, and I'm a little confused at the moment

I haven't seen the SHC on rag that lenC just mentioned, but I am very sure he's a villager anyway.

I think given the way yesterday went also confirms that tommy was a seer hunt. I say that because there's several shady votes on CJ that look like bussing, and the complete lack of resistance. They thought he would get vigged reasonably often, they killed a guy with a wolf peek of him, he was given up. I think gmaster is a wolf like 98% of the time given his play in this game, but I can make that case in full later. Cliffs involve him somewhat inexplicably interpreting the d1 wagons in a way that is favorable to CJ and goes after VE, then getting called on it, then basically disappearing, followed by his goofy vote on CJ yesterday and CJ's pushing him. All of it looks wolfy.

Re: the game state

I think given the number of vanillagers that it's more likely we started with 6 wolves, but either way we really want to both lynch and vig a wolf in this cycle. I don't know what's correct but I think a seer with 4 live could consider claiming either to prevent one of their peeks from getting lynched, or with two wolves. Don't do this just because I'm saying too, let's think about it, but I think this juncture is very critical, whether it's 10-5 or 9-6.

I'll have more once I catch up

Think you are overestimating what 50% means, average 2p2 game starts with 25% wolves and since we have some clearish people, there are people close to or over 50%. I thought both VE and dbmurph were way above 50% on the starts of d2 and d3 respectively. Just goes to show how much I know.

Take this list with a grain of salt, I haven't even gone through the nightkills yet:
Maki
Shin
STS
Vagos
Vineetrika

Chips said on d1 that he's a wolf but had him as his most likely villager on d2 before he was killed, it was a really obvious fakepeek take a look at my first posts yesterday.

well named you seem to be one of the only sane people in this game. Could you look at what i have written on D3 and comment on it please.

EBWOP: D4 i mean.

@LenC
Can you show where you said yesterday who you though was clear at that moment? I think 50% is quite lot compare to 23% at rand, and we don't have any clear from peeks e.g.

Votes from post 2232 to post 2308
Night in 8:00:30
---

Votes	Lynch	Voters
2	TheRagnarok	Shin Zangetsu (8), dbmurph22 (2)
2	STS_za	Maki_ (4), Darthe (7)
2	lenC	DuracellDK (8), BLFG (19)
9	not voting	well named (1), Vineetrika (4), Valar Morghulis (0), Vagos (0), Top Tier Tom (0), TheRagnarok (0), STS_za (16), lenC (6), GMaster479 (0)

I can only tell you who were really clear yesterday in my mind in hindsight:
BLFG
Darthe
TheRagnarok
vixticator

WN joins this list after CJ has flipped, I believe this list still might contain an endgame wolf so I guess I'm sort of contradicting myself.

dbmurph voting ragnarok sketches me the **** out

BLFG: I don't think len is a wolf very often but I will revisit your case.

Prior to re-reading my primary suspects are:

shin ganzetsu
vagos
Gmaster

and secondarily:

dbmurph
darthe

Thank you, that is all I want. I'll stay out your way

wn regarding your last post.
I don't think Vagos is scum. I agree with your other people + IenC.
I don't agree with Vagos mainly because to me he has made maybe the most sense after us two. In addition to that he was the first one to vote for cj on D3, he voted for cj on D2 aswell.

EBWOP: What i meant to say with + IenC is that i think he is scum too, in case that was not clear.

My only advice to you, is be careful who you trust. Even scum can hunt and kill their mates. I trust you based on your behaviour, and while well named is pleasant and makes good points, he seems VERY diplomatic

My problem with vagos is he has less than 100 posts after 5 real life game days, and I don't really recall him caring very much about anyone being a wolf.

My other problem is I have fairly strong village reads on a lot of people, and there are 5-6 wolves left. He's firmly in the POE.

Len may be a wolf but less likely than others IMO. Darthe is creeping back for me. I'm not there with Shin yet. Agree with the rest especially Gmaster. Excluding myself from consid, course.

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I have a good target for the vig tonight.






























Yourself.

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STS: I'm a villager and I will do everything I can to win this game. I have no problem with you wolf hunting me or being paranoid. I would be the first to tell you that you should never clear me just for voting wolves. That said, I think I'm an obvious villager in this game, and all I'm going to ask is that given the game state, we need to prioritize killing the really wolfy people like gmaster ahead of killing people who can only be suspects due to paranoia. I'm fairly sure even for you I should be in the latter camp.

You can call this "diplomacy" because it is, but it's not wolfy. The fact is the best way to win is to identify a core group of villagers and try to work together. This is the basis of most of my wolf hunting.

So here are some reads from two guys I really liked. I myself said that I doubt dbmurph is wolf, but it's interesting to me that Chips and dbmurph are on opposing sides. Chips has Rag as his highest villager and db as his biggest suspect; dbmurph says Rag is his biggest suspect. This isn't bothering me yet though. Vix had STS as his highest suspect. He doesn't like BLFG. I disagree with BLFG but I think STS deserves scrutiny again as he's been on my front burner for most of this game, he just hadn't done anything quite obvious enough to out him. Given the things he's said since I last analyzed him, I think now's the time to make a push for him.

That was post #513. The next post is a long MQ from Darthe in #514, which you'd think would interest STS seeing as how he just voted for the guy. Instead, STS replies with:

And never talks about it again. Instead, he jumps to defend himelf against Bell. It takes BLFG to get him to reply:

Now I love this moment, because BLFG asks two people for a reaction to the same post of Darthe's. I thought it was good, and I said as much. STS has the opposite reaction:

I'm trying to put myself in STS's shoes and see why he wouldn't like Darthe's post, but I'm not seeing it unless he doesn't like it because Darthe is asking the right questions to the right people.

Now fast forward a bit to these posts where he's pretty adamant about Maki:

Why Maki? This guy was initially very timid, and I had him in my suspect lens, like STS. I gave both of them a second chance, and so far Maki has been taking advantage of that. He slowly warmed up and is giving reads and taking stands. Cool. I think he's smarter than he initially believed. I gave STS a second chance and he's mainly continued his trend of not revealing his innermost thoughts, which is concerning on its own, but his suspects make little sense to me. I could see him being a confused town like BLFG is saying if we had any overlap, but we often don't. Darthe isn't scum, he's actually trying hard, not fake trying hard like STS.

So his suspects are Maki (who I think I was right about giving a second chance), WN (like the towniest guy here) and Darthe (the second towniest).

I also don't like that he flopped on his read of me within like 10 posts:

So now we know his suspects are Darthe, Maki, WN, myself (maybe, unless the town is feeling I look better now and so he backs off?), and he tells BLFG that dbmurph is also on his list.

Is it not disturbing to anyone else that STS's suspect list includes almost exclusively people that we generally agree are strong posters? Darthe, WN, dbmurph, myself, and Maki. Why isn't BLFG, his biggest hound other than me so far, on his list? Probably because they don't feel they could make a successful push for BLFG right now, but the others have enough of a shadow around them. Add to that all the stuff about his discussion of mechanics, pretending not to know how many mafia teams there are and he looks like the best lynch for today.

STS_za

Since apparently no one can be bothered to follow the advice about not talking about the vig, I'm going to say a word in support: kojiru wasn't my #1 shot, but he was in the list and was reasonable. Bell...well, everyone makes mistakes. Buck up though soldier, tonight we're going to shoot a wolf :P

This.

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Someone give me a d3 rag summary? Will read in full later

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Disagree with you on STS and Shin. Looking into lenC now.