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11/29 Futurama Vanilla GAME THREAD 11/29 Futurama Vanilla GAME THREAD

12-04-2012 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
This is the extent of hardcore's EOD1

flips his vote on REM for a bull**** reason and then tells Aston to pick a wagon

that's all he did, and it looks bad

look how active the confirmed villagers were in comparison to him
I'm always grinding at this period. I didn't actually wanted to vote either of them I don't think. I was trying to lynch the seer, but then the seer couldn't be w/w with the wolf (and what made you think he could?) so I voted the other one.

that I actually need to explain my actions here after I just avoided a mislynch from happening is pretty lol. but what can I do, right.
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12-04-2012 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
why LKJ is clear:



this is LKJ trying to wagon boo on d1 in a POR a few weeks back. the tone, content and certainty of his reads mirror exactly how he went after cross and aston in this game:







the posts on cross are quite disperse but you can go back two pages and read his certainty. this is not mirrored in his wolf games. if someone does something everytime he is a villager but never when he is a wolf, then he is probably a villager here. this tone is hard to fake. LKJ is probably a villager.
To be fair, the Aston stuff is less valuable because I was trying to sell the fake peek and get nk'd. Which didn't work for obvious reasons. I figure you can't claim a wolf peek and then act iffy about it at all. As that day wore on, my confidence became somewhat false but was still the right thing to do once I had already committed to following through on the play.
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12-04-2012 , 05:16 PM
if I'm right and boo is the last wolf, the game is over anyway.
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12-04-2012 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
FWIW cross pretty much cleared me yesterday
fwiw, hardcore pretty much cleared me yesterday iirc?
just sayin
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12-04-2012 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
lkj, look at it from my point of view

if I strongly advocate for a hardcore lynch and make it happen, and he flips villager

then someone other than you or I gets nk'd tonight, and the two of us go to f3

then you autovote me and we lose

whereas if I were a wolf I'd be trying to get you lynched here, because nk'ing you looks bad for me but I'd pretty much have to do it
Nah, vote me. Seriously, if we mislynch and the mislynch is anyone but Gatito (and there's seemingly very little support for that right now, including very little from me), this game is lost. I wouldn't vote him and he wouldn't refrain from voting me.

From a percentage standpoint there's a far greater chance that we get the wolf by deciding at F3 without me than deciding at F5 with me.
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12-04-2012 , 05:20 PM
I guess the problem is that if hardcore is the wolf, he's certainly killing Monte tonight and then I'm pretty sure Gatito will line up to vote Boo out at F3. There's no foolproof plan.
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12-04-2012 , 05:20 PM
Still, like I said, I just don't have the confidence in my read of Monte being a wolf; hell, I'm not even sure he's my top choice anymore.
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12-04-2012 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
To be fair, the Aston stuff is less valuable because I was trying to sell the fake peek and get nk'd. Which didn't work for obvious reasons. I figure you can't claim a wolf peek and then act iffy about it at all. As that day wore on, my confidence became somewhat false but was still the right thing to do once I had already committed to following through on the play.
it's still not something you were able to mirror in your wolf game. and I think that's important because a huge amount of wolves can't really make strong cases against villagers. 'tunneling' is different. just throwing that x is a wolf everytime and saying everything about them is so damn wolfy is different than the aggressive way to which you approach your leans.

I see you're sheeping monte right now wrt me. that's sad, but I didn't play this game anywhere near good enough to make us win. I don't think any villager deserves this tbh. so getting mislynched here isn't so bad, although it's pretty ridiculous. monte is obviously forgetting the tons of interactions I had with a bunch of wolves that spew me clear. but I played a very pro-wolf villa game anyway.

if I'm getting lynched here, please vote boo at f3, monte. you too, LKJ. you're both probably villagers, there are many reasons to believe so, and boo is just skating along while the village implodes.
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12-04-2012 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
I'm always grinding at this period. I didn't actually wanted to vote either of them I don't think. I was trying to lynch the seer, but then the seer couldn't be w/w with the wolf (and what made you think he could?) so I voted the other one.

that I actually need to explain my actions here after I just avoided a mislynch from happening is pretty lol. but what can I do, right.
you weren't the only one that didn't lynch cross

and I was the one that didn't maj her

and you calling her villagery isn't that clearing if you're the wolf and decided to nk her
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12-04-2012 , 05:22 PM
so hardcore

if we lynch boo today and he flips villa

what then?
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12-04-2012 , 05:23 PM
now I'm tinfoiling about boo

goddamnit
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12-04-2012 , 05:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
you weren't the only one that didn't lynch cross

and I was the one that didn't maj her

and you calling her villagery isn't that clearing if you're the wolf and decided to nk her
if I leave my vote on her she gets lynched. why would I ever change it if I'm a wolf? like that doesn't make any sense to me. I reacted to her posting and cleared her for it. NKing cross is the most ridiculous play ever, unless LKJ is the last wolf. I'm not a dumb wolf, monte.
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12-04-2012 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
if I leave my vote on her she gets lynched. why would I ever change it if I'm a wolf? like that doesn't make any sense to me. I reacted to her posting and cleared her for it. NKing cross is the most ridiculous play ever, unless LKJ is the last wolf. I'm not a dumb wolf, monte.
so even though you just cleared lkj

your order is boo->lkj then?
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12-04-2012 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
so hardcore

if we lynch boo today and he flips villa

what then?
can I be perfectly honest here?

if boo is a villager then mrgatito is the wolf because I don't see either you or LKJ being talented enough to fool me at f5.

there. yeah it's arrogant, but there you go.
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12-04-2012 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
so even though you just cleared lkj

your order is boo->lkj then?
it's boo-> suicide or something.

I don't think it's mrgatito. but as I crossposted, I don't think the other two can really fool me deep.
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12-04-2012 , 05:29 PM
and you think mrg is talented enough?

I kind of wish I was the wolf now
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12-04-2012 , 05:29 PM
God I live for the day that I get to fool the **** out of hardcore as a wolf.
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12-04-2012 , 05:30 PM
Anyway I'm leaving work now. Be back in a bit.
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12-04-2012 , 05:31 PM
I think I know your wolf game and I read LKJ's wolf game enough to be somewhat sure that you both can't be the wolf.

also if by anything else the whole forgetting about annie's peek is probably something as clear as anyone can be cleared by anything. obv going to add this to my wolf repertoire :P but yeah, if anything else you're not the wolf because you forgot who annie peeked d1 and that's not something a wolf forgets (and I honestly don't see anyone faking it).
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12-04-2012 , 05:33 PM
bleeeh

i guess i have to vote boo then

you and lkj have seemed villagery today

gatito has been clearing too many people

boo hasn't even been calling everyone a waffle this game
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12-04-2012 , 05:35 PM
if boo is a wolf I want the postgame props
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12-04-2012 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardcoreUFO
it's still not something you were able to mirror in your wolf game. and I think that's important because a huge amount of wolves can't really make strong cases against villagers. 'tunneling' is different. just throwing that x is a wolf everytime and saying everything about them is so damn wolfy is different than the aggressive way to which you approach your leans.

I see you're sheeping monte right now wrt me. that's sad, but I didn't play this game anywhere near good enough to make us win. I don't think any villager deserves this tbh. so getting mislynched here isn't so bad, although it's pretty ridiculous. monte is obviously forgetting the tons of interactions I had with a bunch of wolves that spew me clear. but I played a very pro-wolf villa game anyway.

if I'm getting lynched here, please vote boo at f3, monte. you too, LKJ. you're both probably villagers, there are many reasons to believe so, and boo is just skating along while the village implodes.
I disagree with your assessment of LKJ's villa game. LKJ had a lot deeper thought process about stuff in that last villa game we played. Here's all of his posts from page 1 of that game. He's coming up with original ideas and they have a lot of thinking behind them. I don't know how to explain it better than that. It's stuff that wolves have trouble coming up with because they already know the answers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
You avow a policy of "hunt wolves and lynch all of those who are not hunting wolves." Policy lynches are -EV for the wolf-hunting process. If you are so rigid in your principles then you should self-vote at this time. Boo



I draw heat early in games. And for what it's worth, my early voters have at least one wolf amongst them. I think I've played enough with the field that there's a decent likelihood of a wolf realizing how easy it is to try to pile heat onto me during d1. Most of the time I clear myself so it's fine, but in a 50 PoR game I don't want to spend a bunch of posts defending myself. So I won't. If I'm still a wagon with an hour to go before EOD on Sunday night then that's another story. For now I'm not going to let the people voting me create unnecessary and silly noise.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Not a spite vote. Not going to get baited into a debate about it, though I realize why that's a good idea for you to try to do. Kinda cute how you're pushing binkles for being too noisy while also trying to create noise. I would imagine that you would do this as w/w though too, so I've still got nothing on binkles.
---
Halpert declaring that he's going to wait until the third IRL day for d1 before he starts posting strikes me as odd. It's to our advantage to create conversation early. Once Saturday night rolls around, if the conversation starts there then there's a far greater chance that the posts don't get read as widely due to football and other such Sunday recreation. It seems like a wolfy declaration early on.

If it was based on availability then that's fine, but that's not how he phrased it, and he's posting elsewhere on 2p2 right now so it's not an availability thing. He just doesn't wanna talk early. That pings my radar.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Hardcore, it's not your reasoning on Boo that makes your villager lean on him suck. It's the fact that it's blatantly incoherent to see his interactions with others in the game, particularly your top wolf lean SIU, and think that he looks all that clear right now.

SIU has done all kinds of soft posting, something Boo hates, and yet Boo has kind of pussyfooted around it in his early game. Boo is only principled about things when he's a villager. He finds it untenable to try to roll the same thing out as a wolf so he gives inconsistent arguments. If SIU is a wolf, which he may well be, it implicates Boo at least as hard as it implicates binkles. Probably more so.

Not going to get too much into your case on me except to say that it's wrong and its reasoning is both unmerited and should be objectively underwhelming and unconvincing even to someone who doesn't know that it's wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
I'm not saying you're wolfy because you're soft-pushing. I'm not totally convinced that you're wolfing at all. I think it's suspicious how Boo has posted toward you. That post was more about him.

The bolded here is very interesting. You've posted in a way that I think that you would know that Boo hates. Why is he reacting to you this way? It may not be that you're wolfbros with him...it could simply be that you don't fit his agenda right now.



Now, as you acted wishy-washy on binkles, this is how he responded to you.





He's dealing with you pretty damn awkwardly, isn't he? Not exactly village Boo-like, is it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
There were definitely really bad points in hardcore's case, just objectively speaking, despite sound reasoning on the first long post. Doesn't help that a number of his reads are blatantly wrong either.

But if he's wolfing I respect the effort he's putting into these manifestos, because it's pretty clear that these long posts have two effects:
1. People will skim them and not really see the inconsistencies;
2. People will be impressed by their length alone and will leave him alone for at least a day or two.

For what it's worth hardcore, be alerted that you don't get to say that you'll expand further on why my post on Halpert was a wolf tell and then not follow through. You will be held to this tomorrow. Not only must you expand on your reasoning, but you must do it well. Looking forward to it!
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
To answer your question: my post was for reaction. He didn't give one. So then I had to devote a couple more posts to finally getting Boo to answer for it.

To ask you another question: do you find it bothersome that Boo was pussyfooting around you like that? It's a rather stark contrast from the guy who claims he wants "HARD posting" or whatever.

You see, this is what wolf Boo does. He believes in his method, and he knows he can't properly roll it out as a wolf, so he calls legitimate game-solving attempts fluff disingenuously so that he can mimic his village game. Then he lays off of other people for no articulable reason. This whole thing reminds me of the game where you were wolfbros with him, he sort of softly threatened to vote with everyone who was piling onto you, and then when you laid a few substance-free posts out he said, "Hey, he did work, I can't vote him now" and voted someone else. Totally inconsistently, mind you.

Others who have played with Boo know how arbitrarily and capriciously he enforces his hard and fast rules when he is saddled by the inconvenience of randing wolf. I hope that those people will weigh in soon on this.

Boo, as I see it, your options are few. You'll have to pick one of these:
1. Continue to mail in your wolf games;
2. Alter your village game and admit that your hard and fast rules do have exceptions, so that it doesn't become flagrantly obvious when you wolf and start enforcing them completely haphazardly in a way that is obvious to those who play with you more than once.

Which will it be?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Well that definitely weaves everything together nicely. The manner in which Boo tried to redirect me away from addressing Jim earlier is a good companion to that post. Jim is taking the same convenient hard-defense route he took in Time Travel; others will have to assess whether that is his MO or a recent development in his wolf game (to hard-defend and only bus if necessary...personally I like his theory on this and tried to pitch it the last time I was in a wolf chat, but that's a discussion for another time). Let's just say that no, Jim, it isn't that surprising that you felt comfortable putting Boo in your village pile despite not having seen him wolf before. Especially as the thread is developing early and things are being correctly pointed out about Boo, you could hardly afford not to go out on that limb.

To answer your question, no you don't post tentatively in a non-PoR game. You can post volume in the wolf role and still bring it across well. It's not about fear of posting; it's that you set up a situation where wagons will develop before you dive in too deeply, you'll have a chance to sit back and see what sticks to a villager and then pick the optimal one to try to drive off a cliff. When we're all on PoR, a fairly strict one at that with 50 posts spread over four days, it's a tactical wolf move to allow others to do the misguiding for you in the early stages so that you can dominate the later part of d1 when others are running out of posts and control the d1 lynch. It's a poor analogy to try to say that this is comparable to a mishmash with no post restrictions, but one that I admit that the masses might eat right up. Time will tell, I suppose...
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Yeah, the implications put forth by this sentence (that my reads are based in spite and that I'm not giving in-depth comments so far) are explicitly false. You want to reduce my reads to spite without regard to the fact that the people who I'm implicating are people who I engaged initially with suspicion. Not the other way around. I have given in-depth comments as to why my vote is on Boo. They are good ones. You at this point are trying to double-talk your way around there being a viable case there.

You are also falsely reducing what I have done so far to a completely inaccurate summary. I realize that villagers, even good ones, can do this in total innocence sometimes. However, once people put blatantly false arguments forth, the burden of proof to establish innocence should be on them, not on the person pointing it out.

Anyway, I'm up far too late now since I took a mid-evening two hour nap that's going to have me struggling through the work day tomorrow. Gonna try to sleep for the night anyway. I will indeed address more of your points when I get the chance. I said earlier that I wasn't going to let myself get caught up in the trap of wasting a bunch of time, energy and posts defending myself against contrived charges, and I won't devote posts specifically to that cause because that's stupid. So, it may take until someone else brings something up worth talking about.

I do hope that our non-posters will show up at some point before Saturday.

Here's page 1 of this game. A lot of short posts, not accompanied by the same type of deep thinking he showed there in the other game.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Is this a question that you've asked before as a wolf, or only as a villager?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
I don't know how much questioning I really do as a wolf, now that I think about it. Usually just find phony reasons to push. But I've only wolfed three times, four if you count that 36-hour SE game that I mailed in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
But anyway, the reason I asked Monte is that he asked me those very types of questions early on in the Election vanilla when we were new to each other, and he was a villager. Haven't seen him do it otherwise in either role. Wondered how common it was for him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
I don't doubt it.

I pretty much purposely dropped that sentence into my last post for the next time that I wolf so that I can transition into it seamlessly.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Pretty sure Gatito did that early reasonless vote bit in the last game that I played with him. Now I'm not remembering his role, but I'm guessing it was villager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Ha. Confirmed; the opening reasonless vote was even on me last time too.



And yeah he was a villager.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
If it makes you feel better, I think that at least one wolf has entered the thread since then, and perhaps two.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
This was definitely one of the wolves from my post above.

The other was TheLoudAnarchist. I could go for either one right now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
It's definitely not the way he's entered prior games, and I don't think I've faced wolf Annie.

His two-part entrance seemed out of character. He usually doesn't start right off with a soft-push, nor the triple-clearance he went for. It was weird.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
For my clarification, are you saying that you think TQA is more or less likely to be a wolf after his explanation?
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
You were supposed to scream at us and tell us that you'll self-vote if we insist on applying pressure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
This is all true.

This is why his passive and non-spazzy opening has pinged me pretty hard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
Boo will slink like crazy as a wolf, especially given how much he has randed wolf recently. On tone his initial post made me sort of believe him, but he has deliberately multitabled between a mishmash and a slow game before on a weekday, so by all rights he'd better be giving a decent contribution at some point in the next 30 hours.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
That was my one and only wolf vanilla game to date. I randed wolf a couple of times early on in playing and captain binkles saw some obvious tells, tapped on the glass, and announced them. Those tells were boiled down to things like "tends to find wolves as a villager, tends to find villagers as a wolf." Think he also said that I'm just more aggressive as a villager. Now since then I've tried to fix those things so that they've either disappeared or morphed into an undetectable form, and after a long run of doing nothing but villaging, I thought I disguised myself really well in last week's vanilla. Alas, I was peeked n0 and ****ed from the get-go, but that's the way it goes.

Due to small sample size I'm not sure how to answer your question. I feel that I somewhat fixed things that got exposed before, and I don't think that much got noticeably exposed last time as the thread seemed to have a consensus that I had burrowed deep.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
From villagery to wolfy so far
Montecore
REM
Hardcore

MrGatito
Boo

TQA
Globetrotter
Anarchist


Haven't posted yet:
Aston
Crossnerd
Felix
TBob
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
You're utterly failing to replicate your early village game.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ
I'll be pretty impressed if you can convince anyone that REM would be your n0 peek.
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12-04-2012 , 05:39 PM
I think your overestimating the difficulty of makes changes to one's wolf game like increasing aggression. LKJ already said that he had been talking with Binkles about his wolf game & he's clearly thinking about ways to improve so it wouldn't surprise me if he came out correcting a previous weakness in this game. Like Aston was so easy to push there for a wolf because of that 'tmi' post. I don't see how you can give it that much credit.
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12-04-2012 , 05:43 PM
Invalid comparison, Gatito. You just compared this to a game with a four-day d1 that had a relatively small PoR for the time period. Of course my d1 posts were longer and better-informed there.
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12-04-2012 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Montecore
bleeeh

i guess i have to vote boo then

you and lkj have seemed villagery today

gatito has been clearing too many people

boo hasn't even been calling everyone a waffle this game
this is a blatant lie.
I have said many times everybody is a wolf
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