40K in 30 days at $60 sng's prop bet - Page 104 - Poker Beats Brags and Variance

The bet is 1/3 completed, and monday morning quarterbacking is half the fun of following it.
There are people in this tread who sound like idiots, you are one of them.

Hardcore session he´s putting in by the way.

yea you're right 1/3 of the way, sorry....

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02-15-2009 , 01:42 PM

#2577

CBorders

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 16,505

Quote:

Originally Posted by swd805

no but u can eat ****

Brah I wanted to bet on you!!1

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02-15-2009 , 01:43 PM

#2578

Eaglesfan1

adept

Join Date: Jan 2004 Posts: 910

Quote:

Originally Posted by basquiatcase

I just wanted to say for the people that think the volume and the amount of time staying up is affecting his play, it's not. I watched Grayson play for about 2 hours the other day and he was playing just as well as ever. He has hit a patch of super variance which is ghey considering the timing. I still have totally faith in the gravytrain that he will ship da mobnies. Most people n00bing this thread fail to realize these swongs are totally standard and motoring through it the way the gravy has should say something about his dedication and skill. Also the gravy has played all night and is now up over 6k for the bet. Holla. Gogogogo Gravy!!

Kind of contradicting yourself unless I suck at reading.

Its hard for me to believe his play isn't affected by the volume and time he's putting in. I just don't see how after 9 hours of 20+ tabling your play isn't affected. It could *possibly* be variance or it could be his play is deteriorating as the session goes on.

But I'll still give him a ton of credit. His work ethic is ridiculous and it takes some big balls to take a bet like this. Like Gravy himself posted at this point all he can do is keep his head up and keep grinding.

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02-15-2009 , 02:15 PM

#2579

CCuster_911

You Only Live Once

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 24,435

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02-15-2009 , 02:39 PM

#2580

TheTruthSpeaks

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,222

Everybody's talking about variance. LOL.

How about he just can't beat games at this level for a big winrate anymore? Pushing ATC's just doesn't work like it used to.

There was much foreshadowing for this if you look at his previous 10,000 games before the bet, where he was pretty much break even. And before you say 10,000 isn't a big sample, wrong. It's a pretty big sample.

He is still one of the better players, but multi-tabling like he does, he is probably a $1.50/game winner at the $60's and a marginal winner at $100+.

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02-15-2009 , 02:50 PM

#2581

$kill Game

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 4,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheTruthSpeaks

There was much foreshadowing for this if you look at his previous 10,000 games before the bet, where he was pretty much break even. And before you say 10,000 isn't a big sample, wrong. It's a pretty big sample.

+1 at this. That was the main reason I bet against him.

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02-15-2009 , 02:52 PM

#2582

poker345

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 202

its possible he will win that.all he needs is about 1100-1200 games/day the remaining days!
*or playing 25 hours/day with his current 20tabling

Who thinks that the very big downswings like 7k in the beggining is a part of tilt and bad luck or maybe not exactly the correct play? and then refined his play a bit?

Suzzer what do u think?

Last edited by poker345; 02-15-2009 at 03:04 PM.

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02-15-2009 , 02:54 PM

#2583

Sluffing Aces

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 618

Quote:

Originally Posted by poker345

its possible he will win that.all he needs is about 1100-1200 games/day the remaining days!

Dude, thats alot of games. I really hope he pulls it off too.

Last edited by Sluffing Aces; 02-15-2009 at 03:03 PM.

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02-15-2009 , 03:05 PM

#2584

BeerBottlez

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,909

How long has he been playing continuously this session?

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02-15-2009 , 03:17 PM

#2585

skalf

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,458

Quote:

Originally Posted by BeerBottlez

How long has he been playing continuously this session?

Were approaching 21 hours, he started at 5:30 PM yesterday.

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02-15-2009 , 03:22 PM

#2586

beserious

adept

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 971

wow this is the same session as yesterday?

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02-15-2009 , 03:29 PM

#2587

skalf

banned

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 1,458

Quote:

Originally Posted by beserious

wow this is the same session as yesterday?

Oh yes

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02-15-2009 , 03:43 PM

#2588

Zima421

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 18,973

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheTruthSpeaks

he wa going over SNE with the alst 10k games at higher stakes sutff, thats why he was breakeven. all for an fpp grinderrrrrrrrrrrr

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02-15-2009 , 03:44 PM

#2589

Thecheese

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 417

Even though its not going so hot for him and this bet was super tough to begin with I got major respect for Space in taking on a giant challenge like this....

GLGL even if you don't make it, your still a sicko

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02-15-2009 , 03:57 PM

#2590

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 99,986

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ile

So if this bet fails, can poker be declared dead?

SNGs may be really close.

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02-15-2009 , 04:09 PM

#2591

TheTruthSpeaks

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 1,222

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zima421

he wa going over SNE with the alst 10k games at higher stakes sutff, thats why he was breakeven. all for an fpp grinderrrrrrrrrrrr

Yes, which was probably an equivalent workload to this propbet, which makes it very relevant.

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02-15-2009 , 04:09 PM

#2592

driverseati

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 11,020

Do the 0 vig hyper turbo sngs count in this?

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02-15-2009 , 04:35 PM

#2593

illdonk

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by skalf

spacegravy (PokerStars)
Filter: <1Day S55-55

spacegravy (PokerStars)
Filter: 2/14/2009 2/14/2009 S55-55

This is the second day in a row, he has made a nice profit early, and then lost it at the end of the session. I know, with the swings and the randomness, but I for one am starting to see a pattern.

This is pretty convincing, though I'm surprised there are people who need to be convinced that skill level might be slightly affected by 20-tabling for 16 hours straight. Or that whatever his ROI is under optimal conditions might be less under less-than-optimal conditions.

Which isn't to say that I'm not impressed with his dedication/guts/etc., or by the fact that he's still made more in a week or so even under disastrous conditions than I've made in my life...

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02-15-2009 , 04:52 PM

#2594

ineverfoldak

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 280

Quote:

Originally Posted by poker345

*or playing 25 hours/day with his current 20tabling

[x] 25 hour days

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02-15-2009 , 04:52 PM

#2595

charmsy

centurion

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 137

Jesus Christ he's gonna make the 24 hour mark. I'm slightly aroused...

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02-15-2009 , 04:58 PM

#2596

swd805

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,955

Quote:

Originally Posted by CBorders

Brah I wanted to bet on you!!1

My bad bruh.

I want to apologize to everyone for contributing bad posts to this thread. I was a little buzzed last night and gave in to the trolls. I still stand by what I said about the variance arguement which was a legitimate discussion until the trolls came out.

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02-15-2009 , 05:09 PM

#2597

crzylgs

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 3,878

Quote:

Originally Posted by illdonk

[x] His skill level is probably affected by playing marathon sessions.
[ ] These garphs are pretty convincing evidence of the above.

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02-15-2009 , 05:11 PM

#2598

illdonk

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,997

Quote:

Originally Posted by crzylgs

[x] His skill level is probably affected by playing marathon sessions.
[ ] These garphs are pretty convincing evidence of the above.

Admittedly, I convince easily, especially regarding arguments I already believe.

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02-15-2009 , 05:15 PM

#2599

Sluffing Aces

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 618

With him being this far behind how is he supposed to make it without putting marathon sessions in? Not trying to be a dick or anything but its pretty obvious he has to play a **** load of hours.