US Men's National Soccer Team Thread: USA #1
09-11-2013
, 10:34 AM
09-11-2013
, 10:34 AM
09-11-2013
, 11:25 AM
09-11-2013
, 12:00 PM
09-11-2013
, 12:09 PM
This got TL;DR but I feel it's comprehensive.
three months ago:
Here are your 8 teams:
6 guarantees:
Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Brazil, Argentina
2 slots remain. Teams of interest (lolFIFArankings cited. But lolFIFA seeds the ****ing tourney):
Croatia (8th) and Belgium (10th and the last team to defeat us other than Costa Rica) are in the same UEFA group and whoever wins it will rank ahead of us in the pecking order most likely. It's going to be Belgium as they're 5 points clear. They'll most likely be seeded ahead of us.
Russia (16) and Portugal (7) are also in the same UEFA group. Portugal, if they win the group will surely be ahead of us. Russia didn't make WC2010 and that matters in seeding. I think we're SLIGHTLY ahead of them in a h2h for a seed. We should want Russia to win this group and Portugal to bomb out to a team like Sweden in the playoff.
Bosnia (13) and Greece (11) are tied atop their group. That friendly comeback in Bosnia can't hurt us certainly. We should root for them to win this group. Greece will likely fall below us even if they win in a playoff. A Greece > Portugal/Croatia playoff win would be pretty ideal for our chances. But not for the entertainment value of the tournament certainly.
That brings us to England (14) who earned an enormous 0-0 draw in Ukraine and now lead their group on 16 points ahead of Ukraine/Montenegro who are both at 15. They have two home matches remaining. One against Montenegro and one against Poland. The Montenegro match is essentially an eliminator for England if they lose and Ukraine get a result at Poland. This is the most important match upcoming in UEFA qualifying. Montenegro plays lowly Moldova and Ukraine has fellow minnow San Marino in their last fixtures respectively. So if Montenegro beats England there is no way for England to win that group and they likely do not qualify for Brazil. Their slot is probably only 60% guaranteed right now. That said, if they do win this group, our chances of being seeded above them are slim and none.
The final three curious teams are Switzerland (15) Uruguay (12) and Colombia (3!!)
Switzerland is waltzing through the easiest group of UEFA pool play. They're going to win it and haven't lost at all since May 2012. They hold some impressive friendly victories (Germany, Brazil, Croatia) as well but have a history of bombing out of tournies and haven't left pool play in any tourney that factors in the rankings.
Uruguay is looking at a playoff with Africa right now for their birth. But they have semis appearances from WC2010 and CONFEDCUP2012 to their names and ESPECIALLY that huge Copa America2011 Championship. But they have been **** on the road in qualifying (sounds a bit like us eh?) That's 4-0-3 at home and 2-4-1 on the road. Their next fixture is in Ecuador, a team they're fighting with for the last spot of auto qual from CONMEBOL. We need to root for Ecuador here. Forcing Uruguay to qualify through a playoff with AFC is pretty essential. If they qualify outright over Ecuador we probably have little shot of being seeded ahead of them.
Colombia is going to be the feel good story of WC2014. And they're currently sitting aloft a super inflated FIFA ranking just like we were headed into 2006. That said, they've dominated some matches in qualifying and they're going to qual easily. History says we should be seeded ahead of them. But it would not surprise me if we were not.
Also rans: Cote D'Ivoire, Chile, Ecuador, France, Ghana probably all have cases to be made against us. But if we're looking for best case scenarios here they have to be discounted, even though Ghana has put us out of the last two WCs and France is France. Their 2010 meltdown probably keeps them from being seeded. Not to mention their recent 4-2 loss to ****ing 73rd ranked Belarus.
So how does this possibly BEST play out for us? A possibility of 32 teams:
UEFA: auto qualifiers, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Spain
Playoff winners: Ukraine, Greece, Croatia, France
CAF: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal
AFC: Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia
CONMEBOL: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile auto qualify. Uruguay qualifies through a playoff. Brazil host.
CONCACAF: USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico
In that scenario I think we have about a 5% chance at a seed. We would in that case need to have no more than ONE of these things NOT occur: England bombs out and doesn't qualify. Same for Portugal. Belgium would need to be severely punished for their lack of WC success. Ditto Russia, Switzerland and Montenegro. Colombia too and that FIFA ranking would need to be disregarded altogether. France would likely need to be punished by FIFA for their futility recently and their inability to qualify automatically. Uruguay would be dropped from a seed for failing to auto qualify without a playoff. Same for Croatia. The African teams will need to be judged to have not done enough. The fact that none of them won African Nations Cup does that.
three months ago:
Quote:
just my experience wrt studying the seeding process. it seems in the past that FIFA will have pod 1 which is host + top 7 as has been stated. Then they will separate the pods into something like pod 2 = UEFA teams, pod 3 = Africa + Conmebol, pod 4 = CONCACAF + Asia... so USA and Mexico are, in that scenario, very likely to end up in a difficult group, although in 2010 that didn't happen with Meixco lucking out pooling with the host and USA lucking out with Algeria instead of an Ivory Coast, Uruguay, Chile or (shudder) Ghana. In this scenario it's not us hoping to stay out of a tough group. We are resigned to it and the other teams are hoping to avoid us from our pod.
It's completely plausible to see something like a Germany, USA, Ghana, Russia group for next WC if they pod as they did last time. Which... certainly does not bode well for our chances.
cliffs: if they pod as they did last time any chance of us drawing a team from Asia into our group is impossible. Not saying I'd particularly want to see Japan or South Korea next cup but it would be preferable to a lot of other sides we stand to draw.
It's completely plausible to see something like a Germany, USA, Ghana, Russia group for next WC if they pod as they did last time. Which... certainly does not bode well for our chances.
cliffs: if they pod as they did last time any chance of us drawing a team from Asia into our group is impossible. Not saying I'd particularly want to see Japan or South Korea next cup but it would be preferable to a lot of other sides we stand to draw.
Here are your 8 teams:
6 guarantees:
Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Brazil, Argentina
2 slots remain. Teams of interest (lolFIFArankings cited. But lolFIFA seeds the ****ing tourney):
Croatia (8th) and Belgium (10th and the last team to defeat us other than Costa Rica) are in the same UEFA group and whoever wins it will rank ahead of us in the pecking order most likely. It's going to be Belgium as they're 5 points clear. They'll most likely be seeded ahead of us.
Russia (16) and Portugal (7) are also in the same UEFA group. Portugal, if they win the group will surely be ahead of us. Russia didn't make WC2010 and that matters in seeding. I think we're SLIGHTLY ahead of them in a h2h for a seed. We should want Russia to win this group and Portugal to bomb out to a team like Sweden in the playoff.
Bosnia (13) and Greece (11) are tied atop their group. That friendly comeback in Bosnia can't hurt us certainly. We should root for them to win this group. Greece will likely fall below us even if they win in a playoff. A Greece > Portugal/Croatia playoff win would be pretty ideal for our chances. But not for the entertainment value of the tournament certainly.
That brings us to England (14) who earned an enormous 0-0 draw in Ukraine and now lead their group on 16 points ahead of Ukraine/Montenegro who are both at 15. They have two home matches remaining. One against Montenegro and one against Poland. The Montenegro match is essentially an eliminator for England if they lose and Ukraine get a result at Poland. This is the most important match upcoming in UEFA qualifying. Montenegro plays lowly Moldova and Ukraine has fellow minnow San Marino in their last fixtures respectively. So if Montenegro beats England there is no way for England to win that group and they likely do not qualify for Brazil. Their slot is probably only 60% guaranteed right now. That said, if they do win this group, our chances of being seeded above them are slim and none.
The final three curious teams are Switzerland (15) Uruguay (12) and Colombia (3!!)
Switzerland is waltzing through the easiest group of UEFA pool play. They're going to win it and haven't lost at all since May 2012. They hold some impressive friendly victories (Germany, Brazil, Croatia) as well but have a history of bombing out of tournies and haven't left pool play in any tourney that factors in the rankings.
Uruguay is looking at a playoff with Africa right now for their birth. But they have semis appearances from WC2010 and CONFEDCUP2012 to their names and ESPECIALLY that huge Copa America2011 Championship. But they have been **** on the road in qualifying (sounds a bit like us eh?) That's 4-0-3 at home and 2-4-1 on the road. Their next fixture is in Ecuador, a team they're fighting with for the last spot of auto qual from CONMEBOL. We need to root for Ecuador here. Forcing Uruguay to qualify through a playoff with AFC is pretty essential. If they qualify outright over Ecuador we probably have little shot of being seeded ahead of them.
Colombia is going to be the feel good story of WC2014. And they're currently sitting aloft a super inflated FIFA ranking just like we were headed into 2006. That said, they've dominated some matches in qualifying and they're going to qual easily. History says we should be seeded ahead of them. But it would not surprise me if we were not.
Also rans: Cote D'Ivoire, Chile, Ecuador, France, Ghana probably all have cases to be made against us. But if we're looking for best case scenarios here they have to be discounted, even though Ghana has put us out of the last two WCs and France is France. Their 2010 meltdown probably keeps them from being seeded. Not to mention their recent 4-2 loss to ****ing 73rd ranked Belarus.
So how does this possibly BEST play out for us? A possibility of 32 teams:
UEFA: auto qualifiers, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Switzerland, Russia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Spain
Playoff winners: Ukraine, Greece, Croatia, France
CAF: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Egypt, Nigeria, Senegal
AFC: Iran, Japan, South Korea, Australia
CONMEBOL: Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Chile auto qualify. Uruguay qualifies through a playoff. Brazil host.
CONCACAF: USA, Costa Rica, Honduras, Mexico
In that scenario I think we have about a 5% chance at a seed. We would in that case need to have no more than ONE of these things NOT occur: England bombs out and doesn't qualify. Same for Portugal. Belgium would need to be severely punished for their lack of WC success. Ditto Russia, Switzerland and Montenegro. Colombia too and that FIFA ranking would need to be disregarded altogether. France would likely need to be punished by FIFA for their futility recently and their inability to qualify automatically. Uruguay would be dropped from a seed for failing to auto qualify without a playoff. Same for Croatia. The African teams will need to be judged to have not done enough. The fact that none of them won African Nations Cup does that.
Last edited by loosekanen; 09-11-2013 at 12:17 PM.
09-11-2013
, 01:05 PM