Quote:
Originally Posted by ligastar
rick, did you lose some profits by doubling down on Tiger yday?
tiger isn't part of my model, all my stuff that's low sample weirdness which my model likes but has no genuine basis for liking goes into a separate tab that isn't actioned unless i feel like degenning it up and then i'll include in the vig free thread cause in theory any bet with vig removed is ev neutral so happy to go with it there but alas nobody booked it and took the free money fading tiger
i post all my "fair lines" in crowdsource syndicate, this is the yearly total, the "low sample weirdness results speak for themselves, in fact i may just start auto fading those matchups and taking opposite half if i get a bigger sample that shows it's not purely bad luck but my model genuinely always likes the bad side on low sample matchups
i'm not going to inundate this thread with a full list of "fair lines" so trimmed the post but if you click on the quoted post you'll see it all
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
weirdness is 27-70-6 -44.45u on 162.96u wagered for -27.28% ROI
regular is 423-336-56 +51.88 on 1030.5u wagered for 5.03% ROI
the stuff i'm actioning is all in the vig free thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
PGA rd3 100
Straka Schenk -133 101
Rahm Hickok -320 249 (200)
Tringale Power 152 -140
Wiesberger Homa 119 -151
Fitzpatrick Riley -159 131
Schwartzel Mitchell 121 -147
Morikawa Simpson 106 -114
Rose Griffin -111 -112
Niemann Gooch 119 -151
Zalatoris Pereira -144 119
Woods Norris -163 113
Hovland Arnaus -196 152
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickroll
PGA RD4 100
Rahm Harding -265 211 (300)
Griffin Schwartzel 113 -107 (200)
Harman List -110 -110
Watson Simpson 105 -127
Thomas Cink -226 182 (300)
Oosthuizen Norris -191 156
McIlroy Arnaus -244 196
Leishman Mitchell -105 -118
Rose Canter -145 115
this list is significantly larger than the official as only these top 5 from today's r4 list are good on their own and the rest are fairly neutral and just posting for those degen tingles
model likes
Rahm Harding -265 211
Griffin Schwartzel 113 -107
Harman List -110 -110
Watson Simpson 105 -127
Thomas Cink -226 182
inner degen likes
Oosthuizen Norris -191 156
McIlroy Arnaus -244 196
Leishman Mitchell -105 -118
Rose Canter -145 115