Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
As for tougher setups, he still had to have experienced super positive variance. I mean we can't have it both ways...he has run bad especially in 2013 when he was frequently in major contention on the weekends, but he didn't at all run good winning 7/11 majors or whatever.
He ran pretty decent. During most of his career Tiger was 3+ shots better than the field. On average it takes ~15 SG on the field to win an event.
If we assume from when he turned pro through 2008 he was on average 3.25 strokes better than the field. Then in the 48 Majors he played here are his expected number of wins on a percent basis.
12 - 8%
13 - 9%
14 - 11%
15 - 13%
16- 11%
17- 10%
18 - 8%
Peak Tiger was in the high 3's better than the field per round. Let's say 3.75sg/rd. How often should that Tiger win 7 of 11 majors? Here's odds he win X out of 11
5- 17%
6- 28%
7- 22%
8- 9%
Since 2010, if you give him essentially 12 "healthy" major starts where he's the best in the world (~2.25sg/rd better than the field is typically best in the world nowadays) then here's his expectation.
0 - 29%
1 - 41%
2 - 20%
3 - 9%
4 - 1%