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12-19-2012 , 07:13 PM

#526

Ray Horton

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 26,879

Well, yeah, RG3 has had an insane year.

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12-19-2012 , 07:14 PM

#527

vaya

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

Betting market had the Giants what, 3 points better than Atlanta last week? I'm not convinced to change that too much based on one of those fluky eli blowouts with a bunch of turnovers where the YPP still ends up close. Bengals did the same thing to the Giants, while Giants did it to GB, SF, and Carolina. Falcons still have negative net YPP on the season despite an easy schedule. Just don't think they're as good as NY or Carolina.

oh he rustled

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12-19-2012 , 07:14 PM

#528

SMIGLET

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I mean forget how good you even think Luck is, the Colts defense is an abomination

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12-19-2012 , 07:15 PM

#529

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ray Horton

AdvancedNFLstats has Indy 25 and Sagarin predictor has them 26. My system had them 28, but I gave them a little extra credit for Luck developing and put them 27. Lions meanwhile are 14 by advancedNFLstats and 21 by Sagarin predictor. My system had them 14, but I put them 15 behind the Saints since they've got some previously suspended guys in the lineup. Would have included DVOA in that as it's obviously better than Sagarin, but their site's down right now.

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12-19-2012 , 07:17 PM

#530

vaya

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

lol

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12-19-2012 , 07:18 PM

#531

Ray Horton

banned

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 26,879

Maybe it's just recency bias, or we just matched up well against them/staph had a bad game and they gave up, but they seemed really bad. They outgained us, but it was the type of "good" yards that defenses give up when they're in control. We also forced Staph into a lot of mistakes. DET just has a loser's mentality idk.

I wonder what the line would be Indy-Det neutral field.

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12-19-2012 , 07:22 PM

#532

ut2010

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13. Falcons
15. Lions
27. Colts

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12-19-2012 , 07:25 PM

#533

Ray Horton

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 26,879

Burke has CAR 4th.

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12-19-2012 , 07:27 PM

#534

iggymcfly

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Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

If you want all my rankings that are out of line with 2+2, you might as well include 6. Steelers and 9. Panthers too.

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12-19-2012 , 07:29 PM

#535

iggymcfly

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Have to say, Brian Burke puts out some mighty fine rankings. I find myself agreeing with him on almost everything.

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12-19-2012 , 07:29 PM

#536

Ray Horton

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Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 26,879

Well that explains how PITT is -7 against INDY on neutral field.

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12-19-2012 , 07:37 PM

#537

capone0

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NLSoldier

den not being #1 is a travesty. they haven't lost in forver and only 3 losses are all to top 7 teams (2 on road) while SF lost to STL like 2 weeks ago? and tied with them at home b4 that...

The Broncos really haven't played **** in those 9 straight wins and have a really weak schedule. I understand the arguments against the 9ers, honestly being #1 doesn't mean ****, but beating NE at home in December is pretty damn impressive. St. Louis for some reason matches up really well with the NFC West or coached up really well, but sucks against everyone else.

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12-19-2012 , 07:40 PM

#538

iggymcfly

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Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

Yeah, Denver's schedule's definitely been weak on the winning streak. Carolina's the only really good team they've played. They're still obviously really, really good, but I think you have to give San Francisco the edge over them for now. If I was picking one team to win the Super Bowl, I'd take Denver though, as the talent's really close and Denver's much more likely to secure a 1st-round bye.

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12-19-2012 , 07:40 PM

#539

hfrog355

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

If you want all my rankings that are out of line with 2+2, you might as well include 6. Steelers and 9. Panthers too.

I can try to see how you get to a lot of your reasons for ranking teams where you do. I think it's important to have different view points on stuff, particularly when conversations get so far down in the weeds (i.e. Assani talking about coaching decisions with 5 seconds left in OT of wk17 tie=lose scenarios).

HOWEVA - I don't see how you can really think the LOLStealers, owners of a sparkling 1-4 record the last 5 games, can be the 6th best team in the NFL. You could find a way to sell me on 9. Panthers, but 6. Steelers is just befuddling.

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12-19-2012 , 07:40 PM

#540

StoppedRainingMen

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 57,452

Quote:

Originally Posted by NLSoldier

den not being #1 is a travesty. they haven't lost in forver and only 3 losses are all to top 7 teams (2 on road) while SF lost to STL like 2 weeks ago? and tied with them at home b4 that...

shrug. in terms of these rankings sf > den is perfectly acceptable

denver's best win to date was against 11. baltimore whereas the niners are 4-0 against 3. patriots 5. seahawks 5. packers and 10. bears, 2 of which are on the road

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12-19-2012 , 07:42 PM

#541

ut2010

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Is 9. Panthers the same team that has Ron Rivera as coach and lost to the Chiefs three weeks ago?

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12-19-2012 , 07:43 PM

#542

chim17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by iggymcfly

I take DEN over SF in SB equity.. but might put SF above DEN on neutral field rankings.

Neutral field rankings are pretty irrelevant real soon, though.

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12-19-2012 , 07:44 PM

#543

chim17

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Kinda bummed I forgot to submit, though.

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12-19-2012 , 07:46 PM

#544

StoppedRainingMen

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chim17

I take DEN over SF in SB equity.. but might put SF above DEN on neutral field rankings.

Neutral field rankings are pretty irrelevant real soon, though.

if we're assuming both teams end up with the 2 seed, 9ers SB equity is probably greater. vGB + @ATL/vNYG >>>> vNE + @HOU

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12-19-2012 , 07:47 PM

#545

NLSoldier

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

We were discussing this in the NFC Beast thread and it fascinates me....

Suppose that Chicago and NY Giants win out, and suppose that Washington and Dallas both win in week 16. That would mean that the winner of Washington/Dallas in week 17 would win the NFC East but they would both miss the playoffs if they tied. Theres talk about that game being flexed to SNF and the Giants and Bears both play early games in week 17, so I would assume that both coaching staffs would be aware of the Chi/NY results and would alter their strategies accordingly. Some weird stuff that would then occur:

-If they played 14:55 of overtime and there was only time for one more play, the defense would not want to tackle the offensive player because that would result in the game ending and them missing the playoffs. Their only chance would be to try to create a turnover and return it for a touchdown. Moreover, if a turnover did occur then the offense would never want to tackle the defensive player with the ball because that would end their season. It'd be the strangest play of all time with neither team wanting the play to end.

-As the overtime clock starts to near zero, both teams would desperately want to preserve clock. That means that both the offense and the defense would be greatly aided by the offensive player running out of bounds instead of being tackled in bounds. How exactly this would affect play calling(from both offense and defense) and how it affects tackling strategies I'm not sure.

-Both teams would want to take wild chances to win because a tie is no different than a loss. It would be mutually beneficial if the two head coaches got together and made some sort of pact to start taking crazy chances so long as the other coach also did it(actually even if the other coach didn't do it you'd still want to do it, but obviously it'd be better for you if you could convince him to do it as well). Are there any official NFL rules regarding this type of "collusion"?

-What if one coach realizes all this but the other coach is clueless and is doing something stupid like letting the clock run down while the QB calls audibles at the line....would it be against the rules for one coach to call timeout and go over to the other sideline to explain the situation to his counterpart?

just massive LOLOL at thinking any drastic changes from normal strategy would be applied by the coaches in this situation. if we were the coaches, ya it would be interesting. but other than a few extra deep bombs or w/e i think ur giving these coaches way too much credit. could def see the game still ending in a tie. the team about to lose would rather take a tie and take their opponent down with them than take a 5% chance at a win and 95% chance at a loss even if the loss is totally equivalent to a tie in this scenario.

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12-19-2012 , 07:48 PM

#546

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by hfrog355

Tied for 3rd this season with Seattle in best YPP differential, have one of the best QBs in the league, and should sustainably be pretty low for INTs thrown if you throw out the games where Roethlisberger was hurt. They have played a weak schedule though, I might have overrated them a tad. Probably should have had them #7 behind Houston, and when RG3's 100%, the Redskins should pass them as well.

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12-19-2012 , 07:49 PM

#547

chim17

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Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

Quote:

Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen

if we're assuming both teams end up with the 2 seed, 9ers SB equity is probably greater. vGB + @ATL/vNYG >>>> vNE + @HOU

I agree. But the fact is DEN is more likely to get the 2 seed than SF is right now. It's close, though. SF's road to SB with a 2 seed is clearly easier. DEN is effectively a lock being 90% in both their remaining games, the sheer fact SF is 50% in a game swings equity some.

I assume thats what Pinnacle is representing with the difference, too.

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12-19-2012 , 07:53 PM

#548

capone0

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if 9ers win this week, equity should adjust but that's a big, big if....hawks given up only 69 points at home this year including 35 to GB and NE combined....I guess the 49er D will need to play well to win.

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12-19-2012 , 07:53 PM

#549

chim17

Snowboarding concerts and punk music

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

if 9ers win this week, equity should adjust but that's a big, big if....hawks given up only 69 points at home this year including 35 to GB and NE combined....I guess the e9r D will need to play well to win.

Ya, I think if SF wins this week they definitely pass DEN for top SB equity. I think it'll be by a fairly sizable margin, too.

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12-19-2012 , 08:01 PM

#550

Assani Fisher

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Quote:

Originally Posted by StoppedRainingMen

It'd be nice if whomever voted for the following publicly defended their ranking:

13. ATL
2. Sea
6. Pit
10. Indy
27. Indy
9. Car

For next year I think we should only allow people to vote if they are willing to publicly admit and defend all outliers(we can set an arbitrary line somewhere around 5 spots different than consensus). If you have an outlier ranking one week and don't defend it ITT after rankings are revealed then you don't get to vote anymore.

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