SE Hoya Containment Thread (aka Politics) - Page 237 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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03-09-2016 , 12:53 AM

#5901

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

How ****ing bad are people at designing polls? When the real results fall outside the margin of error more than they fall inside it you are doing something pretty damn wrong. Basically everyone who has designed and taken a poll this year should be fired.

Quote

03-09-2016 , 01:00 AM

#5902

schu_22

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 38,541

Yeah. I don't get the LOL NATE SILVER ****...look 538 didn't do the polling and can only go off the best data available to them, same goes for other aggregate/prediction sites. The huge polling error is why Decision Desk was wrong. Blame the insanely terrible polls.

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03-09-2016 , 01:03 AM

#5903

suzzer99

Save the Cheerleader, Save the World

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 100,714

Then 538 didn't deserve any credit (which it got tons of) for nailing the last two elections.

Quote

03-09-2016 , 01:07 AM

#5904

schu_22

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 38,541

Suzzer, there's stuff they should get credit and blame for. But no way would 538 or any other entity look at Clinton polling at 21 points over Bernie and conclude that Bernie would win. I'm not sure what you're even arguing.

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03-09-2016 , 01:11 AM

#5905

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,244

The only way that makes sense is if you are saying polling has been useless for a while, in which case I'm guessing that isn't the case and tonight is an outlier.

Quote

03-09-2016 , 01:13 AM

#5906

schu_22

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 38,541

My only point here is that the Michigan polls were terrible and deserve far more blame than the aggregate sites.

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03-09-2016 , 01:30 AM

#5907

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

both the pollsters and the people who projected Hillary to win off that data should be ridiculed, mocked, and laughed at. If Nate Silver can take credit for being right when polls are right he deserves blame for being wrong when theyre wrong.

Luckily all it took was a quick glance at some google trends this afternoon to plop the little money I had on predictit down on Michigan feeling the Bern. Rolled those small profits into NC raising up and feeling the Bern.

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03-09-2016 , 01:37 AM

#5908

TheQuietAnarchist

Formerly xorbie

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 22,826

I believe the credit for Nate was in aggregating a lot of polling data and coming to stronger positions based on looking at all those polls.

Unless the credit was specifically "he's good at knowing which polls are **** and which aren't" then I don't see why he deserves any LOLs here.

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03-09-2016 , 01:40 AM

#5909

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheQuietAnarchist

why not when he is consistently coming up with stronger positions than the betting markets and general consensus, but this time they are frequently convicted and wrong?

Quote

03-09-2016 , 01:52 AM

#5910

Larry Legend

Celtic Pride

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 42,244

Rubio said he won't run for senate.

If he gets pwned by Trump in Florida what can he do?

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03-09-2016 , 01:58 AM

#5911

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

Quote:

Originally Posted by Larry Legend

Rubio said he won't run for senate.

If he gets pwned by Trump in Florida what can he do?

start running for VP

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03-09-2016 , 02:01 AM

#5912

Palo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 10,563

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalledDownLight

start running for VP

Maybe Hillary will pick him but nobody on the GOP side would.

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03-09-2016 , 02:09 AM

#5913

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,141

lots of people lost lots of money today betting on hillary in michigan

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03-09-2016 , 02:16 AM

#5914

CalledDownLight

Toonces the Posting Bot

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 88,413

are you speaking in the third person about yourself or actual generalities? Are you finally off the Rubio train?

Quote

03-09-2016 , 02:21 AM

#5915

domer2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 34,141

nah I know a lot of people who bet on this, and quite a few got wrecked. i had a good night tonight, thankfully.

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03-09-2016 , 04:23 AM

#5916

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 69,114

Quote:

Originally Posted by ludacris

TIL Jeb's name is actually John. Can't believe I didn't know his name isn't actually Jeb.

Jeb is short for John Ellis Bush. Fun fact, the Bluths of Arrested Development are in part a parody of the Bushes, and GOB's name is derived the same way (He's George Oscar Bluth II).

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03-09-2016 , 04:25 AM

#5917

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 69,114

Quote

03-09-2016 , 04:26 AM

#5918

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,494

Nath, get out while you still can.

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03-09-2016 , 05:28 AM

#5919

Abysmal

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 3,083

All these "look at these terrible things Trump/Hillary did" seem pretty pointless. Everyone here seems to be agreed that both of these candidates are godawful so pointing out more examples of the things that make them godawful isn't likely to change any minds. I think both sides would get way more mileage out of pointing out the things that make their candidate less terrible than the other one.

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03-09-2016 , 07:14 AM

#5920

Wooders0n

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by MEb

Can we all just stop and admit how ludicrous this entire damn thing is? The man had an aide go to a store and buy a bunch of steaks. They then had someone remove the labels in clear sight of cameras, put them on a table, and then claim to the nation that they are "Trump Steaks", which isn't even a thing that exists anymore.

Every hateful and racist thing that this man has ever said put aside, you have to be a legitimate psychopath to do something like this.

I think that's pretty hilarious if true.

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03-09-2016 , 07:15 AM

#5921

Wooders0n

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by schu_22

They deserve to be lold at for being like "durrrrr there's still Wayne County u guiz" when it was like Bernie up 25k votes with 85% in. They lack any common sense.

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03-09-2016 , 07:48 AM

#5922

andre006

Champions Du Monde

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 12,418

lolpolls, USA confirmed #1 in Michigan.

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03-09-2016 , 08:26 AM

#5923

ut2010

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 38,725

THE BERN

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03-09-2016 , 08:27 AM

#5924

BAIDS

2013 FA Cup winner

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 32,645

kinda weird that outperforming the polls by 25 pts has barely moved the needle wrt betting

i guess it means most of bern's equity is tied up in the possibility that clinton gets FBI'd