Quote:
Originally Posted by mullen
If markets are a good way to evaluate a presidency shouldnt a Trump slappy think Obama is the GOAT?
It's undeniable fact that short term, Trump has had a positive effect on your stock market investment. Congrats if you time the market perfectly and get out at the top. Trump's barely implemented anything yet, we'll see in a couple years what his actual long term effect is.
yes if thats an absolute criteria.
I think its pretty clear that this market rally is all political in nature. When I say that, I mean that I believe that the market rally is due to the political rhetoric from Trump about cutting taxes and decreasing regulation as well as speculation about global trade and repatriation. This combined with the thought that the GOP platform in general is more favorable to the markets has lifted the market since the election.
I don't think Obama did much politically that directly caused the market to rally even though it obviously performed great in his tenure.
I think if Trump does nothing meaningful on the tax, regulation, and repatriation then this rally is either gains simply being pulled forward or ones that are transient in nature. Either way, his Presidency will not have a positive impact on the markets overall if he doesn't follow through.
However, there is also substantially more geopolitical and execution risk to all facets of a Trump Presidency than any President ever. This, almost by definition, cannot provide positive shocks to our market, but could provide substantial negative shocks if things unfold poorly.
Of course, these are just my personal views and not investment advice or anything.