Johnny Nelson is a complete embarrassment in this. Totally siding with AJ (not surprising) but at least make it less obvious. Whyte has no chance but at least he is fighting his corner against the Sky brigade. Pretty funny when he tells Nelson that he is asking him a question about the WBC rankings lol, obv never got a straight answer.

canelo-cotto got 900k buys according to rafael

quite a bit more than I thought. i'm impressed

Do Sky release their PPV numbers?

No.

More than I thought too (I was guessing 750k max prefight).

Oscar was talking 2m+ buys I think and a lot of hype was about breaking the 1 mil mark, but the fight was likely plenty profitable at 900k, so it was successful (I was wrong!).

dillian whyte at 8/1 is worth a punt. Dillan has power and although AJ is good offensively he has major flaws in his defense (has a really stiff upper body and from what ive seen doesn't judge distance well).

on a side note i dont think DW has much more then a punchers chance but a chance non the less.

after the GGG fight did so horribly i was expecting 400-750k range. i guess i really overestimated GGG's mass appeal and underestimated how important the uh ethnic fans are for the buys

Also GGG was a 14-1 favorite or something ridiculous. Lemieux wasn't even GGG's best opponent to date.

Canelo's first non Floyd PPV did around 350k and was hailed a major success.

Cotto and canelo should be two of the top four PPV stars post Floyd, so they should do a good bit in a 70-30 type betting odds fight.

Still, 900k is nice.

A puncher's chance is like 3-5%. You need Whyte to win around 13% to make that a profitable bet.

I'm not sure Whyte is even AJ's best opponent to date, but top three for sure, we'll see how he looks. AJ needs to step up ASAP.

GGG being a huge favorite is def a valid point

lol you cant put a % on what a punchers chance is. There are many factors that determine what is a punchers chance, im not going to into all of them but you could probs guess the main ones.

and DW is OFC the best fighter who AJ has fought, up until now AJ has fought 13 journeymen and 1 relatively poor HW prospect.

the casual boxing fans are currently buying into the AJ hype and thats why DW is 8/1. I can remember when another hyped up english HW prospect called David price fought his 1st real challenge in tony thompson and thompson was the 11-1 underdog and you could guess what happened.

I didn't mean to offend.

Maybe Whyte is the best opponent for AJ (though if Whyte shows us nothing, gets outboxed and KOd early will we still say the same thing?). Whyte's opponents aren't any better than the opponents that AJ's last opponent fought to his undefeated record.

This fight seems massively hyped based on Whyte winning in amateurs. That line has been used in boxing so many times (and means nothing), but I've never seen it used as much to promote a fight as in this one. That + Whyte talking a ton I think has made people believe this fight is closer than it really is.

I don't see what David Price has to do with this. If you compare AJ to the failures of a hyped Price, I could compare AJ to the success of the hyped Wilder. I don't think it matters either way.

What does everyone think of Quillin-Jacobs?

Quillin came in a pound under weight. I went with him at -150, I think he's more proven vs better competition (even if he's underachieved as of late) and the weight thing points to him taking things more seriously.

Joe Parker knocked out some schmuck tonight to go to 17-0, fighting another bum next month and then hopefully he goes to the States to test himself against some decent HW's to see how good he is

[QUOTE=ChicagoRy;48809284]I didn't mean to offend.

Don't worry you didn't offend me but I was just annoyed that you picked a random percentage to suggest what a punchers chance is.

I'll use two different examples to show you what I mean. Tommy hearns fought Iran Barkley twice and Iran knocked out hearns twice, despite hearns been the better boxer and having basically all the pysical advantages. So Iran only had a punchers chance vs hearns however he still had a very good chance of winning the fight and obviously a much better chance then the 3-5% that you suggested.

A fight in recent memory was the GGG vs Lemieux fight. Lemieux only had a punchers chance vs GGG and while watching the fight it was clear to everyone that Lemieux couldn't nagate the jab and even when he did land the power punches they seemed to have no effect. To summarise lemieux's punchers chance is significantly lower then the chance that Iran Barkley had vs hearns.

Also you say that DW is living off the ameteur fight with AJ and this might be true to an extent but just by looking at his fights you realise he has some skills and very good power.

Yeah, interested to see this guys progress. Looks decent but needs a test.

Possible opponent for AJ?

odds seem about right to me. close to 50/50 imo but quillin has been in with the better guys

i really hate quillin and his constant ability to get questionable decisions so i'm really rooting for jacobs though

actually quillin is prob a good shout

looking at jacobs resume it is really noticeably worse than qullin's

anyway i kind of like the card tonight. not great but not horrible. i thought bone looked game v porter but his resume isn't very impressive. algeiri deserves a fight like this where he isnt thrown to the wolves. i thought he looked very sharp v khan under john david jackson and i will be impressed if he can dominate bone. cuellar-oquendo is competitive enough i suppose.

GGG is a good example. Murray, Macklin and Lemieux were all given single digit % chances to beat Golovkin. Macklin and Lemieux had perceived power, and Murray had all around skills/size. But they were all bigger underdogs than Whyte is vs Joshua.

I didn't really pull the % out of nowhere, if you look at guys that have no chance other than to get lucky on a punch, the odds are usually like +1500 or more. Those Garcia-Salka and Quillin-Zafara type fights are true puncher's chance fights, where the opponent basically needs a very clean power shot to land perfectly to have a real shot at winning.

The books give Whyte more than a puncher's chance, he's over 10% to win. I'd imagine the doubts or hesitation from many about AJ in this thread are representative of those increased chances Whyte has in the books. Some feel that Whyte may not need a lucky punch, he may have the power to bother Joshua more consistently and Joshua may not have the tools to deal with him.

I just meant that this fight is being hyped so heavily due to that. It's not even Whyte necessarily, it's the promoters/media, that's their angle here and they're pushing it so hard.

He does have good power, but a lot of guys show power when they can just walk everyone down. It's a lot harder to show good form and technique in those situations. That's the big risk with many prospects, that they only have power, and once they fight someone with technique they get torn up. Edwin Rodriguez is an example I like. Watch his fights vs weak competition, he looks like a world beating monster. But he winds up and leaves himself wide open (was exposed vs a weaker fighter in his last fight in that way). Fighting Ward, he couldn't do anything with that power, he didn't look dangerous in the least bit. Edwin is not a prospect and Ward is world class, but the example shows the limitations of raw power when it comes without technique and boxing ability.

The difference in AJ and Whyte is that you can easily imagine Whyte struggling mightily with a decent boxer (like Cunningham) or a guy that can move him back (an in shape Chisora) or a guy that won't stand down (Stiverne). I would be surprised if AJ didn't destroy the latter two and get to Cunningham. That's why I say AJ is a good up and comer, but already clearly a top 10 heavyweight, while a guy like Whyte is a prospect.

Parker is exciting too, can't wait to see how he handles a better opponent too.

Time is looking ripe for these younger guys to step it up, there are clear paths to title shots against fighters that are more vulnerable than Wlad has seemed for the last few years.

Hearns was only a 4-1 favorite over Barkley it seems, similar odds that Wlad had last weekend and Broner had vs Maidana.

http://articles.latimes.com/1988-06-..._thomas-hearns

Parker won't fight Joshua until one of them has a title.

If anyone is interested, looks like this is kicking off shortly and this looks like a working stream.

http://eversport.tv/boxing/wba/2015/...s-dennis-hogan

Well, I would say my boy has lost the first two... :-/