Quote:
Originally Posted by prohornblower
Are betting lines for horrible teams going to be higher than actual probabilities?
Don't results at both ends of the spectrum end up being beyond the highest and lowest bet lines?
I'm asking this as a dude who never bets sports. But doesn't money coming in affect the odds to an extent? Like, the odds aren't solely based on team ability?
I don't know much, but my understanding is essentially that yes money coming in affects the odds (and typically the oddsmakers prefer equalish action on either side). however, there is so much money wagered that it becomes something close to a wisdom of crowds effect. and it's extremely difficult for any 1 person to be smarter than the crowd as a whole. this is particularly true for in season betting lines, as the crowd acquires more and more info it becomes harder to beat. so the betting line, at the same time, is what the money says and is a good actual indicator of talent
short story: if the betting market says the Panthers are even money to win 4.5 games, that's probably better than whatever prediction you can come up with, and is actually a good indicator of overall team strength. the crowd is hard to beat.