Sure, I acknowledged this upthread, that Manning outdoors > Brady outdoors.

however there are other factors here, and going deeper than "outdoors" would really be optimal. 25 degrees and windy outdoors is completely different than 70 and calm outdoors, ANFLS has shown this. and just an example of this, 24% of Brady's outdoor games have been in < 40 degree weather while only 8% of Peyton's outdoors games have been.

I acknowledge that this work isn't just out there - but I'll play Tango and say that some aspiring NFL saberist should be able to put a weather factor onto each game.

not sure I follow this one - unless you have looked at Brady's @ dome games and found those defenses in aggregate were well below average in defense. I would assume given Peyton's huge sample indoors his defenses faced in domes are pretty close to average.

Strawman. No one is saying that Brady wouldn't have been great. Not sure anyone has ever seriously tried to make that case. This approach to this discussion by either side is why makes every discussion on it so ******ed.

You tossed BB's W-L record out there without completing the thought. Finish that thought and tie it into Brady > Manning instead of 'won moar wit brady jus sayin'.

Yeah when you look at the teams Brady has played in domes, it's pretty LOL. Let's not forget how terrible the Colts were for so long at defense. It's basically a really small sample of Brady playing the Colts a few times then some smaller samples playing the Saints, Rams, Vikings, Lions. (Texans if they count)


It's more just a product of dome teams during this era simply being really bad in general.(And maybe correct for Dome teams to concentrate their resources on O vs D, I'm not sure) Peyton's Dome stats don't get to reflect that because it counts home games against top defenses.

Park factors are not as relevant in football because the primary park factor in baseball is the park's variables which most contribute to the ball leaving the yard or not to extremes.

Closest variable to effect football that which contributes to speed and the elements. They're relevant but the deviations between a mediocre hitter Vinny Castilla at Coors Field and Brees in the Superdome differ so widely. Not sure if that's a great example but the correlations to park factor just aren't as present yet so tey may be there but the anecdotes are so much further from conclusive that te utility comes into question.

I thought it was clear to anyone following. I guess not.

Brady has impacted Belichick's success far more than the other way around. This is in response to those idiots arguing "Brady with GOAT coach vs Manning with drooling tardmuffins." Manning's HCs have had more success elsewhere than Bill B.

For whatever you think of Brady's value to BB, are you making the case that Manning's better production has come with better coaches? That Manning has done less toward his HCs' W-L records versus that with replacement level QBs than Brady has for BB? That BB is Cleveland is actually relevant here?

No one here is saying Brady isn't among the best of all time and that an all time great HC doesn't benefit from one of the best QBs of all time. Do you understand what I mean about the self-victimizing straw men discrediting you?

I have never said that Manning's coaches were better. What I am saying is that the difference in coaches is so overblown by Manning supporters, and is far less of a factor than playing conditions and offensive personnel when comparing the two.

Refresh my memory on this, b/c I don't remember the Colts defense being awful during the Peyton years.

I just looked quickly and this is somewhat true. Certainly it's a small sample. Somehow I got 15 regular season games @ dome teams on football reference which is different than Yahoo, maybe I counted wrong I dunno. anyways I took each teams defensive DVOA that year, and I get an average rank of 20th. you are right there are some horrendous ones in there but also some solid ones (Indy 2007, Min 2006, even STL 2012 comes out pretty strong)

obv. average would be 16.5th, so Brady does appear to have faced a slightly below average set of defenses while I can only guess that Peyton's set of defenses faced is average. so this helps explain why his indoor stats are so good, but again I think you just need to factor this somehow, not not count them. it's not like the average rank here is 29 or something, it's just slightly on the weak side

So how much better is Indy and these Colts with Brady and how much worse are the Pats with Manning?

Not arguing here but I think that swap is more insignificant than you may think.

Unsure about the Colts.

Pats worse off due w/Manning due to his absolute ****tiness in the cold. But that is Patriot-specific.

Let me reiterate that Manning is an all-time great, one of the best of all-time, and I even respect the argument that he is the best of all-time.

What I have no respect for is for those with the opinion that no one else is in the discussion.

Totally false, there is absolutely another QB in the discussion for GOAT. His name is Aaron Rodgers.

This is true. Between Rodgers and Brady.

If Rodgers can continue this level of play for 7-10 more years (far from a given), Brady will be an also ran in the Manning/Rodgers/BB era

With BB being GOAT i wonder if he had Manning does he tank the last few games of the season so that they lose HFA and might get to play the AFCCG indoors

this argument is pretty similar to the wilson vs luck debate. one side is pretty much all homers and "sort by rangz" and the other side is everyone else. really not hard to figure out which side is right.

are you sure brady is far better on the road outdoors than peyton?

kbz, you did great indoor-outdoor stuff earlier itt. care to compare the road outdoor numbers between the two, please? i don't know how.

yeah, I don't know either. Yahoo has all the split stats but you can't crosstab them...so some games presumably fall under "windy" and "cold" and "home" but others don't...and I don't know which are which.

Seriously? They let up like 500 points one year.

notice I have like 15 posts in the last 2 days and not one mentions "rangz" or "choking"?

I honestly think there is a lot of dissonance here. people decided long ago who was way better (back when there was a huge stat gap, peaking around 2006) and some people don't want to change their minds or rethink positions or even consider positions. not everyone but some people

One year out of how many?

iirc they were top 7 in points against 4 times during Peyton's tenure in Indy.

Lol just so stupid.

aren't you a pats fan tho? I should have been more clear I meant homers OR "sort by rangz" "lol choker" etc. if those are the only 2 groups arguing brady it's not very good company.

Not really. Not even close in fact.