Good crystal ball, could very well see all of this happening.

I think the Blazers should just blow it up entirely.

Warriors and Rockets aren't on the brink of aging out any time soon. Maybe if it was just one of them you could hang on and hope for something strange to happen, but with both, you're so capped.

Jazz, Pelicans and Twolves on the rise too, you're more likely to fall further away than you are to contend. Plus something like Lebron and/or PG3 to LA could put you even further down the pecking order

Even the fact that the Spurs and OKC might fall apart isn't that helpful, since you have so many bad contracts you're jammed for space and can't take on any of those guys... and they'll just form up with teams like the aforementioned lakers, and push you further down.

I say give up Dame and CJM for as many picks as you can get, and reset the whole thing.

You've only got 2 more years of Turner/Leonard/Harkless albatross contracts, they'll all be rolling off the books in time for you to really start to hit your stride. And who knows, maybe somebody will even give you a second rounder and an expiring for them at some point if they play well next season

If ever there was a year to blow it up for multiple lotto picks who can age together, this year is it

Not sure if Portland is a market that can do something like that.

Also, even if it may not be indicative of their overall team ability. They just won 49 games and were the 3 seed in the conference with their core players all basically in their primes.

Kinda tough to just pivot off of that.

Yeah.

Really sounds like something you'd def try out in 2k but an owner would practically never sign off on.

On a scale of 1-Kevin Durant, how big of a vagina is Kevin Durant?

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...was-accidental

Just admit it and stop being just the worst ever.

Portland should just stay the course imo. They're a pretty fun team, well liked, and the fans/players aren't sick of the status quo yet.

In reality there are a ton of playoff teams that should just sell off everything and start over. But that isn't going to happen because there aren't a lot of owners and fan bases that will be ok with their team being the drizzling ****s for 3 years at a minimum.

I'm not a cap guru or 6ers finances expert, but this seems like the wrong philosophy to me, and a larger scale version of the same mistake that OKC made with their 3 eventual MVPs.

If each individual deal is good value on its own, then I think that you max out the team while you can (salary-wise), and then deal with the excessive payroll later if it's not proving to be worth the returns (or when the repeater tax gets too large).

There's a big difference between a $200 mil team, which might be manageable and worth it, and a $400 mil team which is probably hard to make worth it. That's the problem that the Warriors will eventually have, which is why they might not stay together. But that's a decision they will make in the future, and doesn't mean that they shouldn't have signed KD just because the whole team might not be able to stay together forever.

Plus, LeBron is old, and while he still seems incredible, you're not expecting him to stay at this level for more than a couple years.

So I think that if you could indeed pull it off, you do get both Kawhi and LBJ. I mean, I don't think that will happen, and you might not even try and might choose to go with another approach for basketball reasons, but I wouldn't forsake those two for financial reasons.

Simmons/Kawhi/LBJ/Embiid with Saric or Roco or both, is such a monster that you do what you can to get it (if it were realistic), and the title equity and resulting revenue increase and franchise value increase would definitely be worth it for at least a couple years.

Then in a couple years, after a title or two, you reevaluate and see where you're at and if it's worth it to keep everyone together going forward. There's a good chance that in 2-3 years that LeBron wouldn't be worth it, and you'd axe him from the payroll, and the development of Simmons and Biid and Saric/Roco next to Kawhi would still be a strong title contender.

A LeBron 5 year max is always tradeable even if he falls off in 3 years. So long as he can physically step on the court, he'll put butts in seats and any number of teams value that over winning.

Wouldn't LeBron negotiate a no trade clause into such a long contract though?

You could still likely trade him. Just would limit your options.

I kinda answered my own question. Didn't I?

Yup. This is probably just theoretical though, I don't think LeBron is looking for a 5-year deal right now.

I don't think you can have a no trade clause signing with a new team can you?

You have to have been with a team for a certain number of years first. But those years don't have to be consecutive, so LeBron could get one one Cavs take 2, but wouldn't in Philly.

Rockets' window is like 2 years imo. CP3 will decline too much after that, and I doubt others improve enough to offset that.

Warriors might not keep everybody together after 2-3 years due to insane repeater tax. And even if they do, they'll be a constant injury risk going forward.

If you were only worried about these two teams, then I think you try to trade or add someone somehow and be in the mix as a contending team over the next 2-5 years. Could bink one like Dallas did, and a perennial playoff team with a non-zero chance at a title is nothing to sneeze at, for most cities and franchises.

Last year, some people would have suggested that the Rockets aim for the future as well, but look at them now.

You're right about this, and it's the bigger risk imo. If they were fighting against the Rox or Dubs in the 2nd round or WCF every year, then that's one thing.

But getting swept in the 1st round? That's not just a little embarrassing, that is dumpster fire pathetic. And even though Por-hipsters may fancy a good dumpster dive every once in a while, even they will tire of it eventually.

So if management can't make a move that would clearly put them over those teams, then yes, blowing it up might be a good option.

That last part does make it a more attractive idea, esp with the success of the Process. With the right moves and draft picks, you could condense a 3-4 year Process down to 1. Rack up 5 picks in this year's draft and bink them all!

You guys think Lebron won't be an allstar 5years from now? I think he still will be, thus still worthy of the max or close to it.

What draft pick could you get in this year's draft IF:

You traded Dame
You traded CJ

?

3
5

At 38 years old? Sure, he might be voted as an All Star, but he wouldn't deserve to be one. And superlol at him being worth like $50 million/year at 38 for basketball reasons.

I think Portland blowing it up is pretty foolish. The Process will probably never work again due to the new lottery odds, and they are a good team that isn't that far from being a fringe contender. They have a few bad contracts, but after next year they will all be expiring. If they can keep hitting on young players some of those guys will be attractive to pair with some of those expirings, meaning Portland can theoretically be at max cap space in 2019 with a 29 year old Dame and a 28 year old CJ... At worst they'll have to wait until 2020, not too bad.

IMO they need to keep trying to find diamonds in the rough, hit their draft picks, and hope they turn into good pieces going forward. They should be looking to re-tool Ujiri-style, and they'll need to hit on draft picks for that to happen.

The hardest part will be convincing the fans and owners to be patient. My guess is there will mistakenly be big changes unfortunately.

Another thing is just the status quo doesn't have to stay that way forever now. More top 25-30 players and really good rotation guys are found outside of the lottery than ever. And player movement happens more than ever. You just gotta keep grinding, maintain flexibility and hope a diamond in the rough or trade opportunity falls in your lap.

That's actually a reason I don't understand why people say this is Houston's big shot in the Harden Era and they better make the most of it because CP3 will be old and other teams will get better. Who knows what is going to happen, if you got Harden and no state taxes and you already got CP3 and Dwight to go there, maybe you get someone else in 2-3 years. Guys change teams more than ever now. Maybe you get Brow in 2 years, who knows.

Don't see Portland blowing it up. Two good players in their mid/late 20s.

You could have got good odds preseason for them finishing with the 3rd seed preseason.

Solid year that fell apart in the playoffs.

You basically answered your own question. This is literally their big shot, they had almost zero title equity before CP3, even with Harden. "Who knows what will happen" and "maybes" are things you can say about any team, and don't constitute an actual title window, but an expression of hope (even if some teams have more hope than others).

For example, last year before getting CP3, they were not title contenders, and you couldn't accurately say that they were in a title window or had a big shot. Even though anything could happen. Then they got CP3, and here we are. But it wouldn't be accurate to say that their title chances are just as good in 3 years as they are right now, even if that's theoretically possible.

That's a decent plan, if they're trying to land a big FA in 2019. Trying to incrementally improve the team isn't gonna work though imo, they're too far away. Business-wise, it makes sense to keep this squad, as a perennial playoff team that is hoping for a big move later. But if they can't make that big move, they're not that close. Morey could get it done, not sure about Olshey.

The Process's chances of working are of course reduced, but they didn't change the lottery odds enough imo, and some teams will still tank when the worst team still has a 40% chance of picking in the top 3, and 100% chance in the top 5.

I was more referring to this year's quality draft though, which could condense the Process down into 1 year, if you traded everyone you could for a million picks this year.

I don't think you could say other teams have the same equity over the next 3-4 years to land a star as Houston does. And other teams don't have Morey as GM either.

When they gave Anderson/Gordon their contracts I figured they were just content to score 115pts a game, shoot 45 3's and be the most entertaining team in the NBA. Then they were the 4th best team in the league last year, probably 2nd best this year.

You think they just got CP3 by luck?

Contracts are shorter, the best players change teams more and Houston has proven they know how to get them. Seems dumb to think this year is their grand chance even if it is their best chance. We've seen Morey get Harden/Dwight/CP3 in the span of 5 years.

Some teams have more, some teams have less. That's not my point though (and I already said previously that some teams have more hope than others, indicating that Houston has more hope than many). My point is that the Rockets' main title window in the Harden era is now through the next 2 years. Seems silly to dispute that, solely on the basis of, you never know, they could always land another huge star in the future.

Is your contention that their title chances are just as good in 3-5 years as they are now through 2 years, since they could maybe get someone else?

And last year they had extremely little title equity, and this year they have a huge amount of title equity.

No. You think it's strongly likely that they get another CP3 level player in 2-3 years?

What does this mean?

Noone's saying that this year is their only shot, they're saying that they have much greater title equity over the next 0-2 years than in years 3-5 (even though "anything can happen"). Do you dispute that?